Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities John Williams NSW Commissioner for Natural Resources

The challenge for Australian agriculture… The era of cheap energy for Agriculture is over..... Fuels, Fertilizer, Pesticides, increasingly expensive The impact of Emission Trading Scheme is about to begin..... Increase costs of most inputs to agriculture The era of cheap food and fibre may be over.... global food demand increasing-Food security.

BIODIVERSITY LAND AIR WATER

Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity  soil nutrient depletion  soil acidification  soil structural decline  soil biological decline  dryland and irrigation salinization  wind and water erosion  contamination with residues of agricultural chemicals

Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity  loss of habitat and biodiversity  river processes and environmental flows  nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands, rivers and water bodies  contamination of groundwater with nutrients, salt and pollutants  riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural tree decline  decline in native pastures and environmental value of rangelands

The challenge for Australian society To manage water, land, biodiversity which underpin our life support systems by Providing our ecosystems services and our ecological infrastructure Under Climate Change and Shift

Change in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years Based on ice core analysis, and since 1958 on direct measurements Inset: Monthly average concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Source: Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology

Source: Rahmstorf et al (2007). Science 316:709. Climate observations compared to projections

Australia is warming

Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities

atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation Global Carbon Budget ( ) IPCC 2001; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, in review; IPCC WGI 2007, unpublished comparison CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y)

Summary of Projected Climate Changes Temperature to increase 3 o C by 2050 and 5 o C by 2070 over land areas Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20% Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt over land

Suppiah et al (in prep) Low CO 2 emission scenario Temperature change (°C) High CO 2 emission scenario 15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative to 1990

20 May TYPE IN PRESENTATION NAME Annual Flows In Lachlan River at Forbes

Rainfall trend (1910 to 2005)

Source: Richard Beecham, NSW Department of Natural Resources

Source: Barry Hanstrum, Bureau of Meteorology