Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines Climate Information Applications for Drought Mitigation In Asia Pacific region- ADPC Experiences

Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines Structure of the presentation  Drought in Asia and Pacific region – Over view  ADPC experience in managing Droughts in Asia –Connecting Science and Society  Relevance of ADPC Experience for Drought management in India  A way forward

Number of Occurrence of Drought/Famine Disasters by Country (1974 – 2003) Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation >10

Drought Affected Population 1975 to 1999

El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines El Nino Climate Risk Management

El Niño impact on water resources, Philippines Angat Reservoir normal water level Angat Reservoir 1998 water level Climate Risk Management

Banned using 57 pesticides Release of HY var., increase of rice price Withdraw subsidy for pesticide El-Nino Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas El-Nino Improve technology and extensification Withdraw subsidy, political crisis Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice Import (Million Tonnes) Rice Production (Million Tonnes) National Rice Production El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia Climate Risk Management

Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

Climate Effects of El Nino

Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines Forecast Product Constraints  Forecast information too general in terms of space and time  Forecast needs are at local level  Forecast information timing does not match user needs  Forecast information received from different sources have conflicting messages  Forecast information language not clearly understood by users

The need Science based information that is understandable and usable by all users, policy and decision makers local institutions and at risk Communities Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines

CFA Project Initiation Research Utilization of Research Products Climate Forecast Applications Process Reduced vulnerability to climate risks Minimize losses Maximize benefits of favorable climate Partnership development Selection of demonstra- tion sites Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models Obtain climate information Analysis of variability and predictability Regional climate modeling Down- scaling Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system Decision system Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies Experimen- tal uptake Capacity building for upscaling Climate Forecast Applications

Angat Dam, Bulacan Mindanao Nusa Tenggara Timur Citarum Catchment Indramayu Iloilo West Kalimantan Cebu Pilot Locations Climate Forecast Applications

End-to-end climate information generation and application system Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication of response options/ feedback Climate Forecast Applications

Institutional mechanism: Philippines Climate Forecast Applications

Institutional mechanism: Indonesia Provision of climate outlook BMG IPB Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook Indramayu Agriculture Office Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response Directorate of Plant Protection (DITLIN) Climate Forecast Applications

Demonstration sites: Indonesia Indramayu, West Java Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur

New Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for Indramayu DPM 6 DPM 7 Old Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for Indramayu Indonesia Climate Risk Management

Impact outlook 2003, Indramayu, West Java Red Areas in DPM 4 and 6 might be seriously affected by drought as onset of DS a bit earlier than normal and characteristic of rainfall would be BN Climate Risk Management

Response plan prepared by farmers group, Indramayu Mid April Late March Climate Risk Management

FARMERS Farmer Groups P1-1 P FARMERS Farmer Groups P P P P Implementation Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level) Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district) Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups Stage 4: training of farmers Climate risk management schools: Climate Risk Management

Climate Forecast Applications Farmers in Losarang show a rainfall graph, which they created from their own rainfall observations using locally-fabricated rain gauges. The farmers are now pilot testing a new planting calendar based on their enhanced understanding of rainfall patterns in their locality.

Climate Forecast Applications Farmer participants in Indramayu Climate Field School studying the process of rainfall formation

Farmers ’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans Farmers of Kelompok Tani Makmur got good harvest in DS 2004, while neighboring villages did not get anything as they made a wrong decision not to plant. Climate Forecast Applications

Priority Areas of Climate Field School (Jawa) Climate Forecast Applications Climate Field School: replication

Districts ARIMA, Wavelet Indramayu Bandung Cirebon Sragen Malang Lahat Banjar Minahasa Maros Jembrana Districts ANFIS,Kalman, NonLin.,PCA + 20 Districts ARIMA, Wavelet, ANFIS, Kalman, NonLin.,PCA 2006 Validation 30 Districts 30 New Districts ARIMA, Wavelet, ANFIS, Kalman, NonLin.,PCA Numerical Model 10 Districts s/w model stat. MR1234 PC Cluster u/ Numerical Model Expand PC Cluster Climate Forecast Applications CFA Program: stakeholders-initiated replication

DITLIN: Recent institutional development SUB BAGIAN TATA USAHA Drs. Agung Wradsongko, MP SUBDIT ANALISIS & MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM Ir. Jatmiko SUBDIT PENGELOLAAN PHT Ir. Sarsito WGS, MM SEKSI KELEMBAGAAN Ir. B. Indriastuti K SEKSI PEMASYARAKATAN Ir. Dyah Mutiawari SUBDIT PENGENDALIAN OPT Ir. Hari Utomo SEKSI OPT SEREALIA Drs. Ruswandi, MM SEKSI OPT KACANG- 2AN DAN UMBI-2AN Ir. Ety Purwanti KELOMPOK JABATAN FUNGSIONAL BALAI PENGUJI MUTU PRODUK TANAMAN Ir. Yayah Roliyah, M Si SEKSI ANALISI IKLIM Ir. Irwan Kamal SEKSI MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM Ir. Endang Titi P. MM DIREKTUR PERLINDUNGAN TANAMAN Ir. Ati Wasiati *Subdivision on Climate Analysis and Mitigation SEKSI PELAYANAN TEKNIK Drs. Oscar Rulli SEKSI PENGELOLAAN SAMPLE Dra. Tantri Indrianti SUB BAGAIN TATA USAHA Suparjo SUB DIT PENGELOLAHAN DATA OPT Ir. Fatra Widjaya, M Si SEKSI INFORMASI & DOKUMENTASI Ir. Yarmiati Munaf SEKSI MONITORING Drs. Tigor Sagala Applications Project: Planning and Management

WMO El Niño advisory, 2006 Characteristics of El Nino 2006/2007 is Quite similar to 2002/2003 Delay Onset of RS 2002 and BN rainfall in DS2003 ? Applications Project: Planning and Management

BMG provide forecast on August/updated in October Climate Team at Agriculture Office held meeting with related field staffs from related agencies to prepare action plans for managing possible flood and drought risk in 2007 and inputs for Regent for inter-sectoral meeting and instruction letter for sub-districts Monitor climate and provide forecast on April 2007 Select options and conduct the selected option Implement anticipation actions (early planting and accelerating WS planting) Preparing program for supporting the action plans and socialization Translation

Institutional support – local government initiates and facilitates  Contacting agriculture inputs distributors to provide enough fertilizers, seed stocks for supporting early planting and accelerating planting for WS 2006/2007 Applications Project: Planning and Management  Revolving fund (loan without interest and pay back period within 2-4 seasons) for assisting farmers to implement management options in DS2007 (planting non-rice crops)  Funding for 950 ha (700 ha for soybean and 250 ha for maize) – local government budget  Seeds supply (1000 ha for maize and 2150 ha for soybean) – central government budget  Establishing agreement with Sucofindo to provide market for the farmers products (soybean and maize)

Moderate Drought – Rainfall Deficiency 26% to 50% of the Normal Severe Drought – Rainfall Deficiency Exceeding 50% of the Normal Rainfall Normal Area of the Country affected by Moderate and Severe Drought

Drought Shocks and Policy Response 1877 Drought Events Major Policy Interventions Famine Codes 1965 Green Revolution and FCI Scarcity Relief 1972 Employ ment Generation Programmes Drought Relief 1979 Contingency Crop Plan Drought Management 1987 Watershed Approach Water Management 2002 ? ? Each round represent death of one million people Each round represent around fifty million people affected

1972 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall 1987 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall 2002 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall

Monsoon Aberration 2002 Drought 2002

Potential Application of Climate Information Contingency planning with climate archive

Potential Application of Climate Information Contingency planning with climate archive

Potential Application of Extended Weather Prediction Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale of days could assist days could assist Critical operational planning In agriculture

Gaps Dissemination to at-risk communities Observation/ monitoring Warning formulation Community response Data analysis Prediction Risk assessment Emergency response plans Public education/ awareness Mitigation programs Potential impact assessment Preparation of response options  Aging and insufficient observation and data communication facilities  Numerical prediction capability  Skilled human resource  Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts  Local level potential impact assessment not done  Language  Localized, relevant  Institutional mechanism, linkages  SOPs  Redundant communication systems  Reach to special groups  Data sharing among agencies  Public awareness  Communication of forecast limitations  Lack of trainers/ facilitators  Resources to respond to warning  Regulatory framework for warning  Stakeholders involvement and roles ADPC-Facilitated Regional Multi-Hazard Warning System

Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines What ADPC Could offer ?  Facilitate development and Application of Tailor- made User friendly Drought risk information by connecting Science and Society  Facilitate development of End-end Institutional system through pilot experiments  Promotes a Culture Managing Climate Variability –by treating drought as a normal feature of climate variability.  Facilitate Share of best practices -Global,regional and National and Local stakeholders

ADPC intervention: Global climate information providers Intermediate users End-users ADPC National met agencies Agriculture Water resources Climate Risk Management

Current capacities of countries in generating actionable severe weather warning information Surface observati on system Upper observation system Data communica tion facilities Ability to draw data from Global network Availability of historical data base Trained man power in NWP Computing facilities for NWP Down scaling to generate tailor made forecast Interpretati on and translation into user friendly forecast Bangladesh Cambodia China Lao PDR Maldives Myanmar Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

ECONOMIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FRAME WORK

The ADPC-Facilitated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia A.R. Subbiah, Director, Climate Risk Management Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

Partners Farmers groups Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics Directorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture Bogor Agricultural University Central Bureau of Statistics BULOG (National food logistics agency) Ministry of Regional Infrastructure BAKORNAS BPB (National coordinating agency for disaster management) CARE International in Indonesia Provincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara Timur Office of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West Java PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Department of Agriculture Bureau of Agricultural Statistics National Irrigation Administration National Water Resources Board National Disaster Coordinating Council Dumangas Municipal Government Local NGOs Farmers groups National Power Corporation

Applications Project: Planning and Management Communicating uncertainty: Climate Field School for journalists Climate Field School Helps Farmers Set-up Planting Strategy Farmers ’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans

BMG Analyzing Climate Forecast Management Options (in the form of instruction letter from Regent Field Observation on pest and Diseases Distribute the Instruction of the Regent to head of sub-district Head of Sub-District transmit the instruction and guidance to Kuwu after adjustment Farmer Group Farmers Issued guidance for managing crop when there is symptoms Climate Team under Sub Division of Food Crop Issued by Regent or secretary By Pest and diseases observers assisted by sub-district staff By Head of Agriculture Office Extension Workers/ Pest and Diseases Observers Early or late of the month depend on location and irrigation schedule October Sept/Oct June/July August Provide revolving fund for farmers in vulnerable areas for managing climate risks April March/Paril January February 1 st 2 nd Increase media role In disseminating the information! Communication flow

D. Mainstreaming into development process  In agribusiness  Farmers cooperative to take part in business activities for agriculture inputs activities and marketing  Pro-active in establishing partnership with other entities in agribusiness (such as market linkage) etc  Institutional development within the Ministry of Agriculture  Creation of Sub-division on climate analysis and mitigation  Ongoing efforts to establish a National Extension Workers Network  Funding support from local development fund Applications Project: Planning and Management

Municipal Council resolution providing for annual appropriation to support climate forecast applications