Investing in Seafood Favourable outlook & attractive valuation Food for Valuation David Kerstens +4477 1781 6277 London Seafood.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Telenor in Europe Kjell-Morten Johnsen, Head of Telenor Europe 28 May 2013.
Advertisements

21 May 2013 Anne Hvistendahl Head of Foods & Seafood, DNB Bank ASA Seafood consolidation seen from a global leading Seafood bank.
April 2015 Charts of Interest. 2 Soaring Valuations, Stalling Momentum? Since its post-financial crisis nadir in March 2009, the S&P 500 Index has soared,
Accenture Plc (ACN) Analysts: Chris Landqvist, Justin Pippitt, Kelli Coldiron & Wei Pi.
Vishal Korlipara.  Sorry for the extra company…. It won’t take any longer.
Fin 4201/8001 Topic 4: Valuing Companies The early years….Ratios.
Major classifications of multiples Price multiples – ratios of a stock’s market price to some measure of fundamental value per share Enterprise value multiples.
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS. Statement Analysis - 2 FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS Objectives Creditors Short term liquidity Long-term solvency Investors.
Business plan overview (1)
October 2008 Paul Braks Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Grain markets in motion Impact of volatile commodity prices on the agri-food value chain.
Morgan Stanley December 7th, 2004 By Adam Freda.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Financial Statement Analysis CHAPTER 14.
Fin 4201/ Ratios Measure strength of various firm aspects Informational needs of creditors and investors Facilitate time-series or cross-sectional.
Valuation: Principles and Practice: Part 1 – Relative Valuation 03/03/08 Ch. 12.
Fin 4201/ Value of firm = PV of all future cash flows 1) Discount explicit forecast period CF 2) Capitalize continuing value = Add for value.
Small is good? Small cap investing Aswath Damodaran.
Viggo Halseth – COO Aquaculture London Seafood Investor Forum London| 19 November 2013.
Financial Ratios and Firm Performance 1. LEARNING OBJECTIVES 1.Create, understand, and interpret common-size financial statements. 2.Calculate and interpret.
1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.
Valuation Terms and Ratios Tanveer Chandok (Director of Mentorship)
MSE608C – Engineering and Financial Cost Analysis
Industrials Sector Jason Kraynak and Wade Guzdanski.
FORECASTING PERFORMANCE Presented by: Teerachai Supojchalermkwan Krisna Soonsawad Chapter 11.
1 Sustainable aquaculture trade Meeting on Fisheries, Trade and Development Geneva 16 June 2010 Dr. Audun Lem, FAO.
McDonald’s Corporation
© 2008 Thomson South-Western CHAPTER 12 INVESTING IN STOCKS AND BONDS.
Marine Harvest Intrafish Seafood Investor Forum, New York 28 May 2015.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis.
Greg Price Greg Shaskus Min Shen Matt Sims Chris Stuart.
Chapter 2 Introduction to Financial Statement Analysis
February 2014 TAE. Market Review 2 Positive Factors 3 Low Interest Rates:  Strong money growth and a positive yield curve are supportive of equities.
Investments: Analysis and Behavior Chapter 10- Financial Statement Analysis ©2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
(AL – NYSE) Brian Mulvihill December 11,  Portfolio Overview  Relevant Stock Market Prospects  Macroeconomic Review  Company Overview  Financial.
Financial Statements Ratio Analysis
Financial Analysis of Starbucks
The name the world builds on 1 Trading update for the five months ended 31 December January 2009 The name the world builds on This presentation.
1- 1 Corporate Finance and Applications – Review of Financial Topics for Case Studies Fall 2015 Dr. Richard Michelfelder.
1- 1 Financial Management Princeton PMBA Program August 22, 2015 to November 24, 2015 Dr. Richard Michelfelder.
A Global Reach with a Local Perspective Current Economic Conditions Affecting Your Business.
1 Prospects for the New Look Tenon John Dell Chief Executive, Tenon Limited Crowne Plaza Hotel, Auckland 16 November 2004.
ASG Group Limited FINANCIAL RESULTS PRESENTATION - FY2006 Geoff LewisMD and CEO Dean LangenbachChief Financial Officer.
PepsiCo Structure  CE0- Indra Nooyi  Global Market leader in salty snacks, 2 nd in beverages  50% of revenues from overseas markets.
CBA Investors Update Date: November 2012 Presentation by: Richard Muriithi Old Mutual Asset Managers (K) Ltd.
Prudential Balanced Fund (PRUBF1) November 2011 Fixed information Licensed Date: 5 October 2006 Listing date: 4 December 2006 Base Currency: VND Tenure:
Lecture 28. Chapter 17 Understanding the Principles of Accounting.
Chapter 2 Financial Ratio Analysis. 2-2 Example 2.1 Problem  Rylan Enterprises has 5 million shares outstanding.  The market price per share is $22.
Taiwan Top 50 Corporates: Survey – Trends & Outlook Tony Tsai, Director Taiwan Ratings Sep. 8, 2005.
VALUATION MEASURING AND MANAGING THE VALUE OF COMPANIES
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2008 McGraw-Hill/Irwin FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS – part 2.
1 Financial Statement Analysis Curriculum designed for XYZ inc. Presented by : OBSAL.
22 October 2008 Slide 1 Results 3Q08 Results 3Q08 Martin De Prycker, CEO 22 October 2008.
The Most Profitable Oil Company in the World. Or is it????
P/E Ratio P/E ratio = current share price / E.P.S., where E.P.S. is earnings per share P/E ratio = current share price / E.P.S., where E.P.S. is earnings.
Tellabs, Inc 4/1/02 Al Goldstein Economic Overview Economic Recovery is expected in 2002 –Strength of recovery is uncertain –Stock markets have surged.
Chapter 13 Calculating and Interpreting Results Instructors: Please do not post raw PowerPoint files on public website. Thank you! 1.
TradeQuest Workshop B Valuation, Analysis & Research Record-keeping.
FOUNDATION OF RATIO AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. PURPOSE & USE OF RATIO ANALYSIS Primary advantage of ratio: –They can be used to compare the risk and return.
Industry Analysis Shahadat Hosan Faculty, MBA Program Stamford University Bangladesh 15 June 2011.
Atlas Copco Group Q1 Results April 28, Contents  Q1 Business Highlights  Market Development  Business Areas  Financials  Outlook.
1 Tricorn Preliminary Results For year ended 31st March 2010.
Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference May 14, 2014.
W ASTE C ONNECTIONS I NC. Connect with the Future Credit Suisse Industrial & Environmental Services Conference May 24, 2011.
W ASTE C ONNECTIONS I NC. Connect with the Future Credit Suisse Industrial & Environmental Services Conference May 14, 2013.
Performance of Private Equity Portfolios Paul A. Strassmann, New Canaan Men Investment Club May 2, 2016.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2007 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Financial Statement Analysis CHAPTER 13.
CHAPTER 4 INDUSTRY AND COMPANY ANALYSIS Presenter’s name Presenter’s title dd Month yyyy.
Principles of Investing FIN 330
First Quarter Fiscal Year 2009 Financial Results December 19, 2008
Connect with the Future JP Morgan Diversified Industries Conference
Principles of Investing FIN 330
Presentation transcript:

Investing in Seafood Favourable outlook & attractive valuation Food for Valuation David Kerstens London Seafood Investment Forum, 19 November 2013

Agenda  Overview publicly listed seafood sector  Company rankings  Favourable outlook  Attractive valuation  Risk factors  Q&A Food for Valuation 2

Overview publicly listed seafood sector  The new IntraFish Industry Report ‘Investing in Seafood’ analyses the 50 largest publicly listed seafood companies in the world;  The publicly listed seafood sector is still relatively small, with a combined market cap of only €24 billion (compared to almost €300 billion for the European Food majors);  The publicly listed seafood sector generates €39bn in revenues, accounting for 24% of the global seafood sector;  There are large differences in the financial performance between different seafood segments, as well as between geographies. Food for Valuation 3 Breakdown seafood sector market cap by segmentBreakdown seafood sector market cap by geography Source: Food for Valuation

Company rankings Food for Valuation 4

Company rankings - continued Food for Valuation 5

Favourable outlook  Continuing strong projected revenue growth of 12% per annum for the next two years, in line with growth over the last two years, but this time around increasingly driven by higher prices;  As a result, profitability is expected to improve strongly, with EBIT margins almost doubling from 6.9% last year to 13.4% this year, and further increasing to 14.7% next year;  Return on invested capital is projected to recover from 5.4% last year, to 9.9% this year, broadly in line with the cost of capital, and to 11.3% next year. Food for Valuation 6 Seafood sector EBIT margin and ROIC development (%) Source: Food for Valuation

Favourable outlook Food for Valuation 7 ROIC development by seafood segment (%) Source: Food for Valuation

Valuation  The valuation of the seafood sector has increased by 14% so far this year, mainly driven by the salmon farmers, and by 56% since the start of 2010, mainly driven by fish feed producers;  The seafood sector is now trading at 7.0x EBIT and 10.3x EPS projected for FY14E, which is relatively low compared to the consumer sector at 16.5x EPS projected for FY14E.  The seafood sector is still relatively small and less well known with financial institutions;  There is a relatively high cyclicality of earnings, outweighing favourable long-term demographic trends;  The sector is trading at 10.3x EPS projected for FY14E, but at 14.8x based on mid-cycle EPS.  ‘Investing in Seafood’ covers the top-50 publicly listed global seafood companies, with full financial models, detailed company profiles and investment cases. Food for Valuation 8 Seafood sector performance & valuation overview by segment Source: Food for Valuation

Valuation - continued Food for Valuation 9

Risk factors  High share price volatility  Volatility is caused by commodity price cycles, with salmon prices moving up or down by over 50% in less than a year.  Low earnings predictability  Earnings are highly sensitive to salmon prices, which have proven difficult to forecast. A change of NOK 1/kg in the salmon price changes operational EBIT by NOK350m, corresponding to more than 50% of operational EBIT in  Relatively high financial leverage  Farmers tend to overinvest in the upturn of the cycle, resulting in high financial leverage when the cycle turns. For example, balance sheets of seafood stocks looked stretched with net debt at 4.8x EBITDA at the end of  Currency transaction risk  Marine Harvest farms the majority of its salmon in Norway, whereas the majority of revenues are generated in the Eurozone, causing substantial NOK/EUR transaction exposure.  Fish diseases and other biological issues  Fish diseases and other biological issues are likely to continue to negatively impact operating costs and investor sentiment towards seafood stocks.  Environmental and food safety concerns  Fish farming sometimes is criticized from an environmental or food safety perspective, which may negatively affect consumption and investor sentiment.  Economic factors  Demand for salmon as a relatively more expensive protein source maybe negatively affected in a weaker economic environment. Food for Valuation 10

Disclaimer Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents of this presentation, but legal responsibility cannot be accepted for errors, omissions, or for damages resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation. Food for Valuation 11

Thank you! Questions? Food for Valuation 12