ANIMAL SPIRITS AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS SHI FANG Adviser: Prof. Peter Matthews ECON 700 Senior Research
Introduction/Motivation Animal Spirits and Economic Activity John Maynard Keynes Irrational human emotion or sentiments that are not the outcome “of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” Irrational Confidence vs. Rational Confidence Past recessions in the U.S.
Introduction/Motivation
Literature Review Matsusaka and Sbordone (1995) “Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations.” Self-fulfilling pessimism: an important independent factor in affecting aggregate output. Chauvet and Guo (2003) “Sunspots, Animal Spirits, and Economic Fluctuations.” “Animal spirits” have played a nontrivial role in the , the , and the recessions. Akerlof and Shiller (2009) Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism. Homo economicus is an unrealistic notion. Emotions due to noneconomic motivations should be taken into account.
Data Consumer Confidence University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Business Confidence The Conference Board CEO Confidence Survey Variables capturing economic fundamentals Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP, Personal Income, etc) The Federal Reserve (Selected Interest Rates) Moody’s Dismal Scientist
Data Summary Time Series Sample Period 1976 Q Q1 132 Quarters Selected Summary Statistics VariableMeanStd. Dev.MinMax Consumer(UM) Consumer(CB) Business Real GDP month TB
VAR Model where
VAR Model Vector Autoregression A n-equation, n-variable linear model in which each variable is in turn explained by its own lagged values, plus current and past values of the remaining n-1 variables. Model Selection Akaike's information criterion (AIC) Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion (SBIC) Hannan and Quinn information criterion (HQIC) Autocorrelation Stability condition
VAR Model Best Specification (4-Variable with 4 Lags) Consumer confidence (UM), business confidence, 3- month Treasury Bill interest rate, and first difference in log real GDP Granger Causality Tests Dependent Variable in Regression RegressorConsumerBusinessGDPInterest Rate Consumer Business GDP ** ** Interest Rate ** 0.06 * 0.00 All ** 0.03 **
Results Impulse Response Functions (IRF) IRF trace out the response of current and future values of each of the variables to a one-unit increase in the current value of one of the VAR errors/innovations, assuming that this error returns to zero in subsequent periods and that all other errors are equal to zero. Structurally interpretable IRF obtained by orthogonalized innovations via Cholesky decomposition Order: GDP, Interest Rate, Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence
Impulse Response Suppose that the VAR is stable, we can derive the vector moving- average representation of the VAR. where
Impulse Response
Conclusion Animal spirits in business expectations has real, significant macroeconomic consequences. Animal spirits in consumer sentiment, however, has a relatively less significant impact in affecting macroeconomic activities. Limitations of the model due to Cholesky decomposition.
Questions/Discussions