Indicator of Economic Sentiment and Confidence Indicator in Services Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic Dagmar Blahova, Edita Holickova

2 Development  Full harmonisation since 1993 in industry, construction and retail trade  Services have been carried out since 2002  Business surveys are performed since 1983

3 Current state Indicator of Economic Sentiment  calculated on a monthly base since 1997  calculated as weighted arithmetic mean of 4 components – confidence indicators in industry, construction, retail trade and consumers

4 IES and its components Current state IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*CCI a, b, c, d = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry BCI = 20 % CI in Construction RCI = 20 % CI in Retail trade CCI = 20 % Consumer CI

5 IES including Services Experimental calculations IES = a*ICI + b*BCI +c*RCI +d*SCI + e*CCI a, b, c, d, e = weights ICI = 40 % Confidence Indicator in Industry BCI = 5 % CI in Construction RCI = 5 % CI in Retail trade SCI = 30 % CI in Services CCI = 20 % Consumer CI

6 Comparison of results

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10 IES (without SCI) and GDP

11 IES (incl. SCI) and GDP

12 Comparison of ICI and GDP

13 Comparison of BCI and GDP

14 Comparison of RCI and GDP

15 Comparison of CCI and GDP

16 Comparison of SCI and GDP

17 Conclusions  currently, results of calculations by previous methodology are officially released  services are not included into composite Indicator of Economic Sentiment  in this practice we will still continue in 2006 as well  simultaneously we will calculate experimentally index by new methodology under providing of following measures

18 The next measures  to analyze of sample and weighted system in calculation of Confidence Indicator in Services  to lengthen time series of CI in Services by retrospective re-calculations (econometric models)  after these steps to realize retrospective re- calculations of time series of IES  to continue on calculations of IES by new methodology  to inform economic public area on changes in calculations  to release methodology of a new way in calculation together with first publication

19 IES and Confidence Indicators in Slovakia Thank you for your attention