Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Human Rights Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC Geneva, 22 October 2008

TAR SAR FAR AR4 A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution to Human Influence FAR (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade” SAR (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence” TAR (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities” AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases” IPCC

Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions in 2004 IPCC

Surface Warming Pattern A1B, relative to IPCC

High latitude: - production increases with 1-3°C rise in local mean temperature - decreases above 1-3°C rise. Crop responses depend on latitude Low latitude: -Production decreases with 1-2°C rise in local mean temperatures -Increased drought/flood frequency affect especially subsistence sectors at low latitudes IPCC

Impacts on crops and lifestock

Projected impacts on water resources Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. More heavy precipitation events will augment flood risk. By mid-century river runoff and water availability - increase by 10-40% at high latitudes, some wet tropics - decrease by 10-30% over dry mid-latitudes and dry tropics In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. IPCC

Climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development

- Millions of people could experience more coastal flooding if Δ T > 2 o C in this century. - Impacts exacerbated by storms, coral bleaching, degradation of coastal wetlands and increased human-induced pressures Sea level rise is inevitable ! Human settlements and low-lying areas - Risks associated with extreme events - High vulnerability in riverine and coastal areas - Urbanization often in high risk areas IPCC

Megadeltas – particularly vulnerable

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected Increases in malnutrition Increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events Increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to changes in air quality Altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases. IPCC

Distribution of Impacts -Those in weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change -Greater vulnerability of specific groups such as poor and elderly - also in developed countries IPCC - Sharp differences across regions - Low-latitude and less-developed areas generally face greater risk Multiple non-climate stresses increase vulnerability

Analytical Tools Scenario driven impacts analysis Provides broad overview Vulnerability assessment Broadened to include social vulnerability Adaptation based approach Examine adaptive capacity and improve resilience Key vulnerabilities – long term goal Art.2 UNFCCC Magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility, likelihood of occurrence, potential for adaptation, distribution of impacts and importance of system at risk

Risk-management framework Risk - defined by magnitude and probability of occurrence Captures uncertainty exposure sensitivity adaptation

Risk-management framework Assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts – can be very difficult Mitigation reduces risks, delay in action increases risks Adaptation reduces risk of negative impacts More difficult to adapt to larger magnitudes and faster rates of warming Some impacts cannot be avoided – sea level rise, loss of species Climate change in context of socio-economic baseline

Vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation

GHG Stabilization and Temperature The lower the stabilization, the earlier global GHG should go down IPCC

Impacts by sector

Way forward Identify vulnerable areas and communities Identify driving forces that enhance or reduce vulnerability Develop adaptation plans – bottom up and top down, use local coping capacity Analysis of synergies and trade-offs of adaptation and mitigation measures – on case by case basis Food prices, degradation of natural habitat, employment, Assessment of attribution of damages and of avoided damages Address question of insurance

Nobel Peace Prize 2007 IPCC together with Mr Gore « for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change"