Nuclear Famine Jeannie Rosenberg, MD Huntingdon, QC PGS “Healing the Planet” Montreal, Sept 25 2009

Credits: Steven Starr International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation Physicians for Global Survival PowerPoint slides prepared with the assistance of Alan Robock Department of Environmental Sciences Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey USA

Alan Robock site: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

“The Year without a Summer” 1816

Mount Tambora in what is now Indonesia erupted in 1815, sending an estimated 150 million tons of dust into the atmosphere and into the stratosphere (10 Km above the earth) where it spread around the world, blocking sunlight. There were probably other factors; it was right in the middle of a period low magnetic activity of the sun known as the Dalton Minimum. The drop in average world temperature was only about ½ of one degree celsius. But is was not even across the world. In New England, although there were periods of hot weather, there was frost and snow every month, and massive crop failures. There were massive crop failures also in Europe, starvation, typhus epidemics, and it rained on 142 out of 153 days during the May_September period in Ireland.

Cities burn Ground bursts Nuclear Holocaust Cities burn Ground bursts Massive amounts of smoke Massive amounts of dust Sunlight absorbed Sunlight reflected Very little sunlight reaches the ground Rapid, large surface temperature drops The basic theory of nuclear winter is very simple. A nuclear holocaust would have two types of targets, “countervalue” (cities) and “counterforce” (military bases, missile silos on the ground), which would produce different types of particles in the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities would absorb incoming sunlight heating the atmosphere. Dust from ground bursts would reflect sunlight back to space. But both would prevent sunlight from penetrating the atmosphere, making it cold and dark at the Earth’s surface. These rapid, large surface temperature drops would make it as cold at the surface in the summer as it gets in the winter. “Nuclear Winter”

Methodology of Research Comprehensive peer reviewed studies done at Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder and UCLA Multiple 10 year simulations done using state of art techniques and equipment Employed the same NASA climate model used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Primary Findings Less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal detonated in large cities will cause catastrophic disruptions of global climate and massive destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone layer The climatic consequences of a large nuclear war – or even a pre-emptive nuclear strike – would make the Earth uninhabitable for humans

Largest conventional bomb = 44 tons TNT Hiroshima-size nuclear weapon = 15,000 tons TNT Smallest strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000 tons TNT Large U.S. strategic nuclear weapon = 1,300,000 tons TNT Largest known strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000,000 tons TNT

Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt India-Pakistan War = 1 ½ Mt World War II = 3 Mt High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

Global warming since 1880 (in blue ) compared to predicted temperature drops from nuclear war

Canadian wheat production after small drops in average surface temperature

An Apollo 10 view of Earth (May 18, 1969) from 26,000 nautical miles photographed from the spacecraft during its journey toward the Moon. You can see Mexico and Baja California in the center of the image. Above that, clouds cover most of the US, producing needed rainfall for the crops that are growing that year. Photo courtesy of NASA (AS10-34-5013).

This is what the world would look like, however, after a large-scale nuclear holocaust. Thick clouds of smoke from the resulting fires would initially cover the Northern Hemisphere, making it cold and dark at the Earth’s surface. Image used by permission of the National Resources Defense Council.

India-Pakistan nuclear war 100 Hiroshima-size weapons = ½ WW II or 0.05% of deployed U.S.-Russian weapons 5 million tons of smoke rises 50 km above cloud level into the stratosphere Global temperatures drop to little Ice-Age levels; significant reduction in precipitation 25-40% of ozone destroyed at mid-latitudes, 50-70% destroyed at northern high latitudes

India-Pakistani conflict using 100 Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons

Change in average surface temps 2 years after India-Pakistan nuclear war

% Change in global precipitation 1 year after India-Pakistan nuclear war

How could nuclear war start? Escalation of a local war Accident

Annihilation by Accident

Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt World War II = 3 Mt High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

Operational nuclear arsenal has 1000 times the explosive power of all the bombs detonated in World War II High-alert arsenals = 300 times explosive power of WWII

Launch-on-Warning (LoW) the Cold War policy of launching a retaliatory nuclear strike while the opponent's missiles or warheads are believed to be in flight, but before any detonation from the perceived attack has occurred Under LoW the decision to launch is made solely on the basis of electronic EWS data

What Are High-Alert Nuclear Weapons? Missiles with nuclear warheads that can be launched in 2 to 15 minutes Missiles that cannot be recalled and require 30 minutes or less to reach their targets Most land-based U.S. and Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are on high-alert, along with some submarine-launched missiles (SLBMs)

False Alarms

20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War by Alan F 20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War by Alan F. Phillips, M.D PGS website (PGS.ca) Resources Abolition of nuclear weapons Articles There were a number of “near misses” during the Cold War, some of which we know about, some we don’t. You might remember the time when a exercise tape was left on a computer, and taken for real. Or in 1995, when Norwegian weather craft was mistaken by the Russians for an incoming missile – they had been notified, but the notice didn’t get through, somehow. Alan Philips compiled a list of 20 of these, several were during the Cuban Missile Crisis. This was very frightening at the time – even more so in retrospect, when we know the American generals were taking amphetamines to stay awake (which, used in that way over several days, can cause paranoid psychosis). 6) October 25, 1962: Intruder in Duluth At around midnight on October 25, a guard at the Duluth Sector Direction Center saw a figure climbing the security fence. He shot at it, and activated the "sabotage alarm". This automatically set off sabotage alarms at all bases in the area. At Volk Field, Wisconsin, the alarm was wrongly wired, and the klaxon sounded which ordered nuclear armed F-106A interceptors to take off. The pilots knew there would be no practice alert drills while DEFCON 3 was in force, and they believed World War III had started. Immediate communication with Duluth showed there was an error. By this time aircraft were starting down the runway. A car raced from command center and successfully signaled the aircraft to stop. The original intruder was a bear

Prevention

Steps to Eliminate High-Alert Weapons Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy De-Alert Nuclear Weapon Systems

De-Alerting Nuclear Weapons De-alerting is the introduction of physical changes to nuclear weapon systems to slow down the launch process De-alerting can be used to rapidly implement existing arms control agreements Many ways to implement de-alerting: block silo lids, pin back firing switches, removing warheads from missiles

Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy Launch-on-Warning policy can be eliminated by Presidential decree NO retaliation ordered ONLY on the basis of electronic EWS data Policy of RLOAD = Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation would prevent accidental nuclear war based upon a false warning

Nuclear war is a Climate Change issue Even a small local nuclear war would cause catastrophic global cooling, drought, and famine. Progress made on global warming would be made meaningless by a nuclear war. Taking nuclear missiles off “Launch on Warning” would greatly reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war.