Cost Model Development using Costmod Dave Stockton Taqui Shaik

Contents  Basics of the cost model development process  Basics of Costmod – project scoping and the model identification process  Exercise: Developing cost models using Costmod Costmod – EPSRC Funded research project. Collaborators included: Airbus, Rolls-Royce & Cognition

Identified Existing Methods Data Identification - methods for identifying variables required to generate models Data Collection - methods by which the data required to generate models could be collected Data Analysis - methods by which the cost estimating relationships could be determined

Data Identification Methods Affinity Diagrams Brain storming Case Base Reasoning Consensus building. Data mining. Fishbone diagram. Force field diagrams Fuzzy logic Heuristics. Histogram. Normal test plot. Radar chart. Relationship diagrams Repertory grids Scatter plot. Simulation

Data Collection Methods 2-D & 3-D Flow Diagrams Activity Sampling Analytical Estimating Checklists Direct observation Film analysis sheet. Flow Process Charting Interview Methods Time Measurement Operational Experiments Outline Process Chart Production Studies Questionnaires Records, Files and Documents Time Study Video tape recording Patents

Data Collection Methods Neural networks Factorial Analysis Fuzzy logic Genetic Algorithm Least Squares Linear Programming Multiple Linear Regression Multiple Non Linear Regression Pareto Analysis (80-20 rule) Queueing Models Simultaneous Equations Stepwise Regression Analysis System Pyramid. Taguchi Methods

Data Sources

COSTMOD Cost Model Development Process Selection of data sources and data collection methods Process Scoping define processes & products that need models define the characteristics of these cost models Data Collection & Model Identification Develop the Cost Estimating Relationships

Project Scoping – 1 of 6

Project Scoping 2 of 6

Project Scoping 3 of 6 Business Objective and Decision Levels applicable to the cost model

Project Scoping 4 of 6

Project Scoping 5 of 6 Enter required Estimating Accuracy 25%

Project Scoping 6 of 6

Model identification process

Exercise: Develop a cost model  Form groups of 3-4  Use the Costmod process to develop a suitable model for estimating the time required to sharpen a pencil within a medium volume production environment