Instant Carpooling Steve Raney –ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09) –Cities21 new mobility non-profit –Patent: Wireless carpool assistant Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS) –Match within 3 days Instant Ridesharing (IRS) –within 15 minutes.

Empty seats: policy 1000X more cost-effective –Duh! Reduce demand IRS: Reduce 1 SOV  phone –Metro extension, 1 SOV  new Mercedes Homeland economic security –SF Bay Bridge in ’89 quake, MN I-35W bridge collapse –Need rapid capacity response Policy jumpstarts –Charge $8/day suburban parking  23% commute shift –Extend commute benefits & tax breaks to DRS commuting. Federal workers, especially –More HOV lanes.

“Obvious” Idea Shaheen: 1% SOV mode shift 11 past, 8 current, 10 future –see –Zimride, GoLoco, nuride, Carticipate, Goose Networks, RideNow, ecolane, Seattle Smart Traveler, Google RideFinder, Hoverport, etc. –Invention prevalence Not obvious –Carnegie Mellon West theme. 4 teams vote no –Goose. $111K WSDOT grant, 322 rides, $345/ride –RideNow. 12 out of 3K BART recruiting.

Still not obvious Sparse GIS distribution –Carticipate: 10K members (need 1.5M) –Avego: 2,400 members Members form permanent carpools & drop out.

What will work? $10/gal, 10% commuters, 100% GPS (API) smartphones + in-vehicle navigation systems Clever –Nuride corridor strategy (not an “area”) –ZimRide college portals –“Instant” via iPhone or Android: high LOS –Avego integrate seats: bus, vanpool, private cars 40 person software team w/ $12M committed VC –Google “New mobility” “platform” Maps w/ traffic, Transit, RideFinder, Android. Homes MCI, AOL

Helps: Reduce SOV Advantage Travel utility = f(travel time, travel cost, travel experience {hassle, stress, comfort, entertainment value}, parking hassle, parking cost, reliability) When util(SOV) < util (HOV), then we have: –SF Bay Bridge Casual Carpooling (save 15 min & $5 bridge toll) –DC slugging (HOV-only!) –Microsoft Redmond casual evening rides back to Seattle Casual Carpooling and slugging: “perfect storm” –Very few other places where HOV is close to SOV IRS pilots have higher chance of success where there is reduced SOV advantage. IRS incentives increase HOV util.

Helps: Peak Oil – hurry up!!! Plenty of petrol (shale, tar sands) –Gets expensive to extract China & India drive skyrocketing demand.

Avego Corridors Bus route-like. Driver does not deviate route Pre-defined stops on arterials <1% is fine – “sliver of critical mass” Driver: every day: run Avego, some days: give ride. LOS Drive new route w/ iPhone, mark stops, edit stops via web –“wiki”-like. User created routes/stops/content.

IRS Safety Reality: casual carpooling Perception: Susan UCD focus group Axe murderers? Sensationalized –Hitchhiking is anonymous, DRS is not Start: Rides w/i social/work network Avoid 1 male, 1 female Reputation rating PIN code & photo to verify ride Possible: background check Possible: Big Sister (homesafe).

Last: Collaboration Really big world problems Grow “more human” –2040 humans can’t understand 2009 Web 2.0 enables collaboration with zero management cost Unleash human goodness (make it easy) –Many people, a few minutes per day Satisfaction: solve something that govt fails at IRS & new mobility: social movements.

THE END: QUESTIONS

Technology Notifications Prediction alg Payment.

Complements Transit

Knowledge worker commute Large suburban solo driving reduction is hard –80% SOV to 79% SOV is hard –But, SOV is “least worst,” not loved –SOV: no-brainer background task –Charging $6 per day for parking works ($9 gas) –Pay $4 per day not to park - fails –Current carpooling: “fampools” Value of time –Commute: 50% of hourly. Lunch: 200% –Waiting under uncertainty, 3X Each commuter: basket of objections.

Knowledge worker commute 30% time penalty: OK (20 min SOV vs. 26 min alternative) Traditional carpool psychology is complex: –Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) –Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important Customer support: eliminate nightmares Mid-day stranding: mtngs, lunch, shop PM Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home Good commute: “time went fast.”

How to grow pilot routes? Work with existing carpool flow vectors –Have fixed carpools also make dynamic pickups Target demographic? “Practice” by picking up “ghosts.”

GrassRoutes Get a couple of folks together (commuters) Grow circle to 5 drivers and 5 riders on a route Avego: help with phones & guaranteed ride home 10 people can change the world Grow from 10 people, add routes.

Avego Shared Transport Mapflow (parent): 40 person company. Congestion charging in London. Maps (GIS). Tracking cars (GPS) Avego division mission: reduce SOV –(SOV: single occupancy vehicle) Shared Transport: iPhone instant carpooling – –Integrates with vanpools, traditional carpools, buses.

Avego Status $12M in venture capital iPhone software on Apple AppStore Very difficult to succeed (hurry up Peak!) –Long, multiyear campaign –We don’t know what will work (try stuff!) Pilot project at a 20,000-student university –Campus shuttle bus system is integrated Futurefleet “coach bus” pilot project.

Steve Raney bio Launch consultant for Avego ULTra personal rapid transit (London Heathrow Airport) 3 masters: business, software, and transportation from Columbia, RPI, and Berkeley Tech product research at Microsoft, Citigroup, and Silicon Valley start-ups Proj Mgr for BART’s Group Rapid Transit study Principal Investigator for the U.S. EPA’s "Transforming Office Parks into Transit Villages" study Author: 5 Transportation Research Board (TRB) papers Patent: "wireless carpool assistant" Conference presentations: TRB, Association for Commuter Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems World Congress, Rail~Volution, Greenbuild Expo, Engineers for a Sustainable World, Housing California, and American Planning Association (California Chapter).