Socioeconomic Benefits from Applications of Earth Satellite Observations: How to Quantify Benefits? Environmental Evaluators Network 2011 Forum Lawrence Friedl Applied Sciences Program NASA Earth Science Division 23-June-2011 Discovering and Demonstrating Innovative and Practical Applications of Earth Science |‌1

NASA and Earth Science Earth Science Division NASA is primarily focused on research and development. The NASA Earth Science Division supports research on the Earth system and its processes. Primary efforts are to characterize, understand, and improve predictions of the Earth system. In the course of performing its research, NASA collects observations and generates new scientific knowledge that can be applied to meet organizations’ decision-making activities. Technology Missions Research Data Systems Applications The Applied Sciences Program funds projects that enable practical and innovative uses of Earth science data by public and private organizations.

Goal 1: Enhance Applications Research Advance the use of NASA Earth science in policy making, resource management and planning, and disaster response. Conduct applied research to generate innovative applications. Goal 2: Increase Collaboration Pursue partnerships to leverage resources and risks and extend the program’s reach and impact. Goal 3:Accelerate Applications Enable identification of applications early in satellite mission lifecycle and facilitate effective ways to integrate end-user needs into satellite mission planning. Applied Sciences Program Program Strategy & Goals Outcomes are manifest in organizations’ enhanced policy and management decisions. Impacts are the resulting socioeconomic benefits from the improved decisions.

Applied Sciences Program Applications Areas (USGEO 9 SBAs) Energy Climate Agriculture Weather Oceans Disasters Ecosystems Water Resources Health and Air Quality |‌ 4 Emphasis in 4 Applications Areas Seek opportunities to expand to 5 additional areas

Applied Sciences Program Project Examples |‌ 5 Global active fire locations from MODIS Fire/Thermal Anomalies product are process in rapid response. SMS/text messages sent out to s & cell phones with key info (fire coordinates, time, distance to reference point). For example, park managers use alerts to reduce illegal clearing and respond to wildfires. August 2010: Transitioned to UN FAO for on-going operational support. OMI SO 2 – Iceland Volcano 15-apr-2010 Projects developed and demonstrated reliable detection of volcanic ash clouds using Aura/OMI SO2 data and other NASA Earth science satellite sensors. Proven utility led to its operational use by NOAA to formulate Volcanic Ash Advisories. Products used extensively in Iceland volcano eruption in April February 2011: The NASA satellite data were used to produce volcanic ash advisories for aviators across the Gulf of Mexico due to the Feb.1 eruption of the Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico. System Configuration

Applied Sciences Program Performance, Evaluation, and Impacts ● Substantive projects and successes in applications; yet inability to substantiate the socioeconomic benefits & impacts ● Strategically important for Earth science community to have skills & abilities (or know how to access them) to document impacts - Need across regions, sectors, topics, data types, etc. ● Part of effort is bridging the social sciences & economic fields with the Earth science and physical science fields. In 2010, the Program began an initiative to conduct impact analyses and substantiate the socioeconomic benefits of selected projects applying Earth observations in decision-making activities. - Impact analyses of projects - Creation of case studies across application topics - Workshops to connect Earth scientists with social scientists & economists.

Applied Sciences Program Impact Analyses Characterize project and decision making. Design analysis and assess information and available data. Identify impact metrics (e.g., number of malaria cases per thousand) Collect data on impact metrics prior to inclusion of Earth obs. info Collect data on impact metrics after inclusion of Earth observations info After Before General Approach The analysis used an adapted expected value of information (VI) methodology to assess the benefits. The value of information is a function of the benefits that result from a decision with information compared to the decision that would have been made without the information. Compare “before” & “after”, control for random variation, and identify impacts Using this approach, the value of information provided by a project would be: Value of Earth obs. info = (Outcome with information – Outcome without information) Using this approach, the value of information provided by a project would be: Value of Earth obs. info = (Outcome with information – Outcome without information) |‌ 7

Malaria Early Warning Project: The Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS) amalgamates information from a wide variety of sources to support malaria prevention. The project integrated NASA TRMM, Aqua, Landsat, and other satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables into MEWS for Africa to improve malaria prevention and reduce morbidity and mortality. Malaria Early Warning Project: The Malaria Early Warning System (MEWS) amalgamates information from a wide variety of sources to support malaria prevention. The project integrated NASA TRMM, Aqua, Landsat, and other satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables into MEWS for Africa to improve malaria prevention and reduce morbidity and mortality. BlueSky Project: BlueSky is a model framework developed by the U.S. Forest Service to predict the smoke effects from wildfires, prescribed burns, and agricultural burns. The project integrated NASA MODIS and other remote sensing data into program to improve the timeliness and accuracy of BlueSky to support decisions on allowances of prescribed burns, analyze smoke emissions transport, and minimize smoke impacts on local communities. BlueSky Project: BlueSky is a model framework developed by the U.S. Forest Service to predict the smoke effects from wildfires, prescribed burns, and agricultural burns. The project integrated NASA MODIS and other remote sensing data into program to improve the timeliness and accuracy of BlueSky to support decisions on allowances of prescribed burns, analyze smoke emissions transport, and minimize smoke impacts on local communities. Applied Sciences Program Impact Analyses Program initiated an effort to calculate the societal benefit of the use of NASA Earth science products for decision support. Initial analysis focused on two projects:

9 Value of Information and Socioeconomic Benefits Workshop (2010) Summary Workshop to Examine Analytic Methods for Determining the Value of Information - Supports efforts in Earth observations community to quantify societal benefits from use and application of Earth obs. data in decision making Commissioned by ESD Applied Sciences Organized and Hosted by: Dr. Molly Macauley Resources for the Future (RFF) 10 invited papers and discussants Publication planned for single volume on developments in value of information research and applications June 28-29, 2010 at RFF in Washington, DC Topics & Organizations - Earth Obs in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Land Use and Pollution (USGS) - Malaria Diagnostics (Harvard) - Land Cover & Climate Change Mitigation (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) - Earth Obs. and Rift Valley Fever Vectors (Georgetown Univ.) - Information and Catastrophe (RFF) - Public Health Information (Wharton/U.Penn) - Consumer Choice and Advertising (UMd) - Earth Observations and Weather Index Insurance (Columbia)

Applied Sciences Program Performance, Evaluation, and Impacts Familiarity with Terms Economics & Policy Analysts - Shadow Price - Discount Rate - Marginal Utility - Cobb Douglas Function - Revealed Preference - Bayesian Inference -Price Elasticity -Pre-Post Analysis Remote Sensing & Earth Science -Orthorectification -Synthetic Aperture - Nearest Neighbor - Kriging - Supervised Classification - Passive Microwave -OPeNDAP -Spectroradiometer Terms shared by both (though meanings may differ) - Lagrangian function- Sensitivity Analysis - Probability density functions- Monte Carlo - Markov Processes- Regression and R-squared

Applied Sciences Program Performance, Evaluation, and Impacts Familiarity with Terms Economics & Policy Analysts - Shadow Price - Discount Rate - Marginal Utility - Cobb Douglas Function - Revealed Preference - Bayesian Inference -Price Elasticity -Pre-Post Analysis Remote Sensing & Earth Science -Orthorectification -Synthetic Aperture - Nearest Neighbor - Kriging - Supervised Classification - Passive Microwave -OPeNDAP -Spectroradiometer We shouldn’t expect either field to become expert in the other. We do need to find ways to make connections. Desire is that Earth science people will know people to contact in other fields to do an evaluation and an analysis of socioeconomic benefits.

Earth Science & Evaluation Assessment of Need & Opportunity ● Need in Earth science community for guidance and examples on use of analytic techniques and methodologies ● Need for development of case studies and body of literature across different sectors, types of decision making, and applications topics For example, techniques to articulate benefits of Earth science for improved volcanic ash advisories is likely different than for reservoir management or fisheries. - Depending on the decision making, the technique and measure may need to address efficiency, productivity, cost, effectiveness, or other metric. ● Also need for good ‘stories’ and human interest anecdotes - Relate the data products to individuals (direct or indirect)

Next Steps NASA and ESIP would like to continue to work with EEN Possible evaluation workshop in the context of the environmental application of Earth science data  for ESIP community  for NASA-funded Earth science project teams Training opportunities on analytic techniques for evaluation, impact analyses, EEN participation in ESIP Winter meeting in Washington DC, January 2012

NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Program Lawrence Friedl, Program Director