太阳活动影响梅雨的 一种可能途经 李 崇 银 全国空间学术会议， 2009 年 10 月，南京

Outline 1. Introduction 2. Solar Activity and Stratospheric Circulation 3. AO and Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly 4. AO and Mei-yu in China 5. Conclusion

1. Introduction Labitzke, Van Loon, 1990) Temperature 10.7cm irradiance Ps Sunspot cycle and location of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia (R. E. Thresher, 2002) 太阳活动的影响过程需要很好研究

2. Used data The 10.7cm solar radiant flux data ECMWF reanalysis data Mei-yu data

3. Solar Activity and Circulation Anomalies in Stratosphere

HS= high (strong) solar activity LS= low (weak) solar activity According to the 10.7cm solar radio flux ， we can get high and low solar active year as follows: HS: 1958, 59, 78, 79, LS: 1962, 63, 64, 74, 80, 81, 88, 89, 75, 76, 84, 85, 90, 91, , 95, 96 The Expression of Solar Activity

Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter Strong Weak There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

Composite geopotential height anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite zonal wind anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite temperature anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite ozone mass mixing ratio anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Latitude-pressure section of the zonal wind anomalies for high and low solar activity

Potential vorticity at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity case

Corresponding to strong / weak solar activity, the stratospheric circulation has evident opposite variation, particularly in the mid-high latitude.

4. Relationship between the AO and Stratosphere Circulation Anomaly

AO (Arctic Oscillation) Thompson and Wallace （ 2000 ） found that the SLP field in the high latitude has variation out-of-phase to that in the middle latitude and this pattern is symmetric longitudinally. It was named the Arctic Oscillation, or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM).

Correlation between AO index in March and zonal mean geopotential height in February

(a) Correlation between AO index in March and 30hPa height in February (b) EOF1 of 30hPa height in February （ 57.6% ） (c) EOF3 of 30hPa height in February （ 9.5% ） Correl. Coeff. with AO PC1PC (95%)0.33 (95%) The troposphere AO in March is closely related to the pattern of EOF1 and EOF3 of 30hPa height in February

Corresponding to positive PC1 ， there is downward wave action in （ 30 － 40 o N ） from 30hPa to 100hPa. It maybe affect the troposphere circulation The regression EP flux in February using the PC1

AO 与平流层的关系 The regression EP flux in February using the PC3 Corresponding to positive PC3 ， there is downward wave action in （ 60 － 90 o N ） from 30hPa to 100hPa. It maybe affect the troposphere circulation

AO index in March has evident correlation with the stratospheric circulation in February. There is downward wave action from the stratosphere and will affect the troposphere circulation in mid-high latitude.

5. Relationship between the AO and Mei-Yu

Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter Strong Weak There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

The standard difference summer rainfall in China for strong and weak solar activity year

强、弱太阳活动年 850hPa 风场的差值 （图中所显示的是通过 90 ％信度检验的值）

Wavelet analysis for sunspots Wavelet analysis for Mei-yu in China

A cross wavelet analysis for the sunspots and Mei-yu in China

Correlation coefficients between monthly AO indices and mei-yu precipitation from 1958 to (* indicates the 95% significance level) 月份 相关系数 (AO ，梅雨 ) 1月1月 月2月 月3月 * 4月4月 月5月 月6月 月7月 月8月 -0.01

EOF1 of the SLP （ ERA-40 ， 20-90N ） in March （ AO index ） AO 与梅雨的关系 AO index and Mei-yu index Negative Correlation

Correlation between the Mei-yu and zonal mean geopotential height in March （ 1958 － 2002 ） AO mode 95 ％ (significance)99 ％

Correlation between the Mei-yu and SLP/geopotential height in March SLP 500hPa The Mei-yu is closely related to the AO mode in March AO 与梅雨的关系 Correlation between the AO index and SLP/geopotential height in March

The regression circulation in summer using the AO index in March hPa thickness Zonal mean wind （ 110 － 150E ） Corresponding to positive AO ， there is a cold center in East Asia and downward motion over the mid-downstream of Yangtze River

The regression 850hPa wind in summer using the AO index (positive) in March

The Mei-yu is clearly related to solar activity in decadal time scale. AO anomaly could cause summer circulation anomalies, which is favourable or unfavourable to the Mei-yu rainfall.

Solar Activity Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly AO Anomaly Mei-yu Anomaly 6. Conclusion --- A Schematic Diagram

Solar Activity High Low + - AO Positive Negative Mei-yu Decrease Increase

Thank You

太阳活动 地磁场 改变地壳内部 磁流体运动 改变地球自转 改变大气角动量 气候变化 直接辐射 对流层大气环流改变 ? 紫外线宇宙线 平流层 臭氧 云场 SST 核幔边界上的 地磁能量改变

SLP 500hPa100hPa AO 与平流层的关系 用 PC1 回归的 3 月对流层高度场 2 月 30hPa 的 PC1 与 3 月对流层的 AO 模态有密切关系

AO 与平流层的关系 用 PC3 回归的 3 月对流层高度 场 SLP 500hPa100hPa 2 月 30hPa 的 PC3 与 3 月对流层的 AO 形势有密切关系

Potential Vorticity at 10hPa in Winter for High and Low Solar Activity Case

Solar Activity Geomagnetic Magnetic fluid motion in the Earth. Rotation of the Earth Atmospheric angular momentum Climate Variation Geomagnetic energy in C-M boundary Direct radiation Atmospheric circulation in the troposphere ? UltravioletCosmic ray Ozone Cloud STA $$$

Moving correlation between the AO and Mei-yu AO in Mar. AO in May Gong indicated the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in May （ 1900 － 1998 ）. But during (1958 － 2002) ， the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in March. We will consider the correlation between the Mei-yu and AO in March 。 （一） AO 与梅雨的关系