Storms activity and atmospheric circulation Galina V.Surkova, Alexandre V.Kislov

WP1. High resolution hindcasting of storm surges in the key coastal regions of European Russia (Barents, Black, Baltic and Caspian Seas) and analysis of the relative importance of different ocean-related factors for associated coastal flooding. WP6. Development of the regional risk assessments of extreme coastal hazards in different regions under present and future climate conditions. Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory

Automatic classification of atmospheric circulation types accompanied by storm surges Recognition of these atmospheric circulation patterns in climate projections Regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century Purpose of the work

Meteorological observations Reanalysis ERA-Interim (0,75x0,75 lat x long, 4-daily) NCEP-NCAR (slp 2,5x2,5; u,v 1,9x1,9; 4-daily)

Calendar of events Caspian sea 1719 Observations on coastal meteorological stations and 2) known sea storms events the most outstanding storm events 1) All events wind speed V>=15m/s

Beaufort scale … 7. High wind,moderate gale 13,9 – 17,1 m/s 8. Gale, fresh gale 17,2 – 20,7 m/s 9. Strong gale (storm) 20,8 – 24,4 m/s 10. Storm 24,5 – 28,4 m/s 11. Violent storm 28,5 – 32,6 m/s 12. Hurricane >33 m/s - hurricane Storm warning – 25 m/s Sir Francis Beaufort (1774 – 1857) But …

Caspian sea Wind speed frequency all events with V>=15 m/s (purple) Extreme events/strong storms (yellow)

Sections of the coast Factors 1. Exposition to the wind 2. Relief

Nov-MarchApril-Oct Monthly frequency, v>=15 m/s ( )

Nov-MarchApril-Oct Wind roses for v>=15 m/s ( ) All stations

Storms: Total events, V>=15 m/s ( ) MonthAll events 5 days duration and more Sum14488 Number of all events with V>=15 m/s ( ) - >950 western part of the sea eastern part of the sea total Number of extreme storms - 17

and so on …

Before Circulation patterns for extreme storm events Climate: Mean sea level pressure ( , Atlas ERA-40) L H H

Circulation patterns for extreme storm events I (14 events) II (5 events) 2011, October, , February, 13

Monthly frequency, v>=15 m/s ( ) Nov-March April-Oct Wind roses for v>=15 m/s ( ) Caspian sea

1981, November , November , March 12 Typical circulation patterns for extreme storm events Caspian sea

Done by now Routine work with initial data Classification of synoptic situation types accompanied by storm surges In progress Automatic classification of atmospheric circulation types accompanied by storm surges Regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century

Thank you !