Metapopulation Dynamics Metapopulation structure: Demes linked via dispersal Local scale: colonization, extinction Regional scale: Occupation frequency.

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Metapopulation Dynamics Metapopulation structure: Demes linked via dispersal Local scale: colonization, extinction Regional scale: Occupation frequency global extinction

University of Kentucky

Extinction, Re-colonization Dynamics

University of Idaho

Spotted Owl: Lahaye et al., 1994, Oikos 63:775

Metapopulation

Colonization balances Extinction

Metapopulation Dynamics p(t): proportion patches occupied, time t Spatially implicit (ignore spatial structure): All patches equally linked

Metapopulation Dynamics Predict: p*, equilibrium occupation frequency Equilibrium: colonization = extinction Closed metapopulation (internal colonization) Open metapopulation (island-mainland)

Closed Metapopulation

Open Metapoulation Colonization: propagule rain from mainland x frequency of open sites Extinction: linear in occupied-site frequency

Open Metapoulation

Metapopulation Dynamics Assume: Patches identical: colonization, extinction Each patch direct link to all others c, m, e constants Total number of patches large

Patch Size, Inter-Patch Distance

Migration: Mass, Temperature

Metapopulation Extinction Local extinction versus global extinction Consider spatial synchrony across demes Local densities correlate positively Moran effect Dispersal and “simpler” dynamics

Metapopulation Extinction High synchrony  Global extinction Asynchrony  Regional persistence Chaos: “nearby trajectories diverge” Can increase local extinction; reduce global extinction

Global Synchrony

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