Sunseasonal (Extended-Range) Forecast of the Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Song Yang （杨崧） Department of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

3 Reasons for the biennial tendency: The biennial tendency in HadCM3 2xCO 2 is in contrast with observed basinwide El Niño events which are often of 4-5.

Advertisements

Analysis of Eastern Indian Ocean Cold and Warm Events: The air-sea interaction under the Indian monsoon background Qin Zhang RSIS, Climate Prediction Center,

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2008 For.

Assessment of CFSv2 hindcast (seasonal mean) CPC/NCEP/NOAA Jan 2011.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 20, 2006.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

India summer monsoon rainfall in ECMWF Sys3 – ICTP, August Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the ECMWF seasonal fc. System-3: predictability and.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 9, 2011.

INDIA and INDO-CHINA India and Indo-China are other areas where the theoretical predictability using the interactive soil moisture is superior to the fixed.

Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer:

1. Global monsoon features Australian monsoon South American monsoon North American monsoon African monsoon Asian monsoon 2. Northern China winter drought.

Challenges in Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Inadequacy of the Tier-2 Strategy Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research.

The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 22,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 31, 2011.

11 Predictability of Monsoons in CFS V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton, MD.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 17, 2006.

Course Evaluation Closes June 8th.

3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Examples of products 3) Performance of the system.

ENSO Update Michelle L’Heureux Team Members: Mike Halpert, Wanqiu Wang, Yan Xue, Gerry Bell, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, and Arun Kumar NOAA.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 9, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 August 2009.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, June 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 9 July 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current.

The NTU-GCM'S AMIP Simulation of the Precipitation over Taiwan Area Wen-Shung Kau 1, Yu-Jen Sue 1 and Chih-Hua Tsou 2 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 25, 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 11, 2011.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in Asia.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27, 2006.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 16, 2011.

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 11,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 3, 2006.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 5, 2005.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 July 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 16, 2010.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2009.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 6, 2006.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 26,

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 12, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 14, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 26, 2005.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 27 July 2009.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 31, 2006.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 July 2009.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 19, 2005.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 27, 2011.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Suryachandra A. Rao Colloborators: Hemant, Subodh, Samir, Ashish & Kiran Dynamical Seasonal Prediction.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 7,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 October 2009.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 31,

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

Seasonal outlook for summer 2017 over Japan

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Composite patterns of DJF U200 anomalies for (a) strong EAJS, (b) weak EAJS, (c) El Niño and (d) La Niña.

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

JSPS 5th University Allied Workshop on Climate and Environmental Studies for Global Sustainability Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian-western.

Presentation transcript:

Sunseasonal (Extended-Range) Forecast of the Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Song Yang （杨崧） Department of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou, China

Model, Data and Others Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Regional Monsoons Tropical Land and Ocean Rainfalls Southern China Early-Season Rainfall CONTENT

3 Coauthors and Reference 3 1. Jia, X. and S. Yang*, 2013: Impacts of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific on East Asian subtropical monsoon during early summer. J. Geophys. Res., 118, Jia, X., S. Yang* & Coauthors, 2013: Prediction of global patterns of dominant quasi- biweekly oscillation by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Climate Dyn., 41, Liu, X., S. Yang* & Coauthors, 2013: Diagnostics of sub-seasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Climate Dyn., 41, Liu, X, S. Yang* & Coauthors, 2014: Subseasonal forecast skills of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Climate Dyn., 42, Liu, X., S. Yang* & Coauthors, 2015: Subseasonal predictions of regional summer monsoon rainfalls over tropical Asian oceans and land. J. Climate, submitted. 6. Zhao, S. and S. Yang*, 2014: Dynamical prediction of the early-season rainfall over southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 29, Zhao, S., S. Yang* & Coauthors, 2015: Skills of yearly prediction of the early-season rainfall over southern China by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Theor. & Appl. Climatol., in press.

4 US NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) 4 Atmosphere GFS2009 (T126/L64) Land NOAH 4-L Ocean MOM4 Sea ice Predicted CO 2 Evolving with time Initial conditions CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) Hindcast ~24/month (4 runs / 5 days) Forecast 4 runs/day (seasonal) 16 runs/day (45 days) Hindcast Data Used: Daily data, Four members every day, integrated for 45 days

Model, Data and Others Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Regional Monsoons Tropical Land and Ocean Rainfalls Southern China Early-Season Rainfall CONTENT

6 QBWO in AVHRR, CFSR and CFSv day variance of OLR in boreal summer for NOAA AVHRR, CFSR, and CFSv2 predictions at various leads

7 South Asia High & E-SE Asia Convection Quasi-biweekly variability of the South Asia High is important for convergence/divergence over East & Southeast Asia Contours: H200 Shading: Difference in 200- hPa Divergence

8 QBWO Variance Kikuchi and Wang (2009) Three JJA Domains Five DJF Domains

9 Prediction of Eight QBWS Modes High skills for predicting the North Pacific and South Pacific Modes, but low skill for predicting the Asian summer monsoon Best: North Pacific South Pacific Worst: Asian Monsoon Central America South Africa

10 Prediction of QBWO for El Nino & La Nina Years High skill for El Nino years, but low skill for La Nina years

Model, Data and Others Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Regional Monsoons Tropical Land and Ocean Rainfalls Southern China Early-Season Rainfall CONTENT

Indian Monsoon & SCS Monsoon 12 Precipitation (70ºE-90ºE) Precipitation (110ºE-130ºE ) More Effect from the Tropical Indian Ocean SST (Boundary Forcing) More Effect from the Subtropical Western Pacific High (Internal Dynamics) SST forcing is important for skills of subseasonal (extended-range) forecast of regional monsoon rainfalls

Webster-Yang Index & Goswami et al. Index 13 Prediction skill is high when regional monsoon is strongly related to large-scale features

Multivariate EOF Analysis (Rainfall & V850) 14 PCs: From short leads (red) to longer leads (blue) (1)Prediction skill is a function of the stage of monsoons (2)An abrupt turning point of bias in late June and early July

Model, Data and Others Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Regional Monsoons Tropical Land and Ocean Rainfalls Southern China Early-Season Rainfall CONTENT

Six Ocean and Land Domains 16

Pattern Correlation 17 Multi-year Average Individual Years Higher skills over ocean domains, esp. the Arabian Sea Lower skills over land domains, esp. the Indo- China Peninsula

Temporal Correlation 18 Again, higher skills are over ocean domains, esp. the Arabian Sea, and lower skills are over land domains, esp. the Indo-China Peninsula

Corr. between Precip & Ts 19 Positive: Enhanced radiation => increased Ts => unstable => convection Negative: Enhanced rainfall => declined radiation => decreased Ts Overestimation worsens with lead time (e.g. Arabian Sea) Positively significant over Arabian Sea Negatively significant over land except southern China

Corr with Ts, and Reg of V850 on P Indices 20 1.Overestimated relationships of rainfall with Ts and atmospheric circulation 2.Problem worsens with increased lead time

Cross Correlations: Supporting Evidence 21 1.Larger correlation appears for neighboring regions compared to more remote regions 2.Longer range predictions capture larger scale features

Lag Corr (Precip/Ts) 22 1.Largest correlations at leads or lags by 1-2 pentads 2.Ts forcing in AS, but Ts response in BOB and SCS 3.Ts response in Indian Peninsula, but weak air-land interaction in southern China 4.Changes with lead time?

Other Features 23 Regional rainfall over oceans is related to larger-scale circulation patterns, compared to that over land As lead time increases, strengthening connections between regional rainfall and large-scale circulation are found over extensive regions, and the regional independence of rainfall variability is gradually obscured by uniform large-scale features. Comparisons between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that the regional characteristics of rainfall and model’s deficiencies in capturing the relationship between small- and large-scale features are responsible for the regional discrepancies of actual subseasonal predictability.

Model, Data and Others Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Regional Monsoons Tropical Land and Ocean Rainfalls Southern China Early-Season Rainfall CONTENT

Simulations of SC Early-Season Rainfall 25 Rainfall for Pentads Pentad Rainfall and Model-Obs Difference

Prediction of SC Rainfall (Skill of 8-14 Days) 26 Higher Skill for April-May than for June Higher Skill for Southern China than for Other Regions

Prediction of SC Early-Season Rainfall 27 Difference in Predicted Rainfalls (Lead Time Days Minus Lead Time 0-14 Dyas)

Yearly Prediction of SC Early-Season Rainfall 28 Higher Skills in 2005 & 2006 Lower Skills in 2001 & 2010 Small Difference in LD 0-4 Prediction and LD 0-14 Prediction

Detailed Features for Years of High & Low Skills 29 Years of High Skills 2005 & 2006 Years of Low Skills 2001 & 2010

30 Detailed Features for Years of High & Low Skills High Skills Low Skills

Prediction of Surface Temp for Pentads High Skills for Rainfall Prediction Low Skills for Rainfall Prediction In the years with high (low) skills of predicting SC early-season rainfall, the skills of predicting the previous surface temperature over the tropical western Pacific are high (low).

Summary 32