1 Ten strategies to systematically exploit all options to cope with anthropogenic climate change Frauke Hoss, Kelly Klima, Paul Fischbeck Engineering and Public Policy Department October 13, 2014

2 Globally, we experience risks from all kinds of natural hazards.

3 The frequency of damaging natural hazards has been increasing for decades. Flood trend here; partially due to development decisions. Source: Munich Re

4 Weather and climate disasters with >50 deaths or >$1B in damage are increasing. 4 Source: MunichRe’s NatCatService

5 Disaster damages will continue to increase due to development & demographic trends. Additional challenges include: Climate change Sea level rise Variability Uncertainty Clearly we need to protect ourselves.

6 How should we think about these risks? 6

7 Classically, risk is a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk

8 In addition to vulnerabilities, there may also be opportunities.

9 This general framework also can have negative and positive feedbacks.

10 Complexity occurs quickly; here is a subset of Climate-related effects on society. Climate-related SYMPTOMS Agriculture, forestry, & ecosystems Water resourcesHuman Health Industry, settlements, and society Heat Waves/ Warm Spells Reduced yields in warmer regions due to heat stress; Wildfire danger increases Increased water demand; Water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms Increased heat-related mortality, especially for the elderly, chronically sick, very young and socially isolated Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without A/C; Impact on elderly, very young and poor Heavy Precipitation Events Damage to crops; Soil erosion; Inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging of soils Adverse effects on quality of surface and ground water; Contamination of water supply; Water stress may be relieved Increased number of death, injuries, infectious respiratory and skin diseases Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding; Pressures on urban and rural infrastructure; Loss of property Sea Level RiseSalinization of irrigation water, estuaries and freshwater systems Decreased freshwater availability due to salt-water intrusion Increased number of deaths/ injuries by drowning in floods; Migration-related health effects Costs of coastal projection versus costs of land-use relocation; Potential for movement of populations and infrastructure Etc. for Temperature Change, Droughts, Hurricanes, Storm Surges

11 We need a simplifying framework that: Applies to many kinds of hazards and sectors Defines mitigation and adaptation on physical underpinnings (as opposed to commonly confused definitions) Facilitates systematic assessment of options

12 In the medical field, Haddon addressed risk reduction complexity using ten strategies.

13 Strategies 1-4 Strategies 5-6 Strategies 7-8 Strategies 9-10 We applied Haddon’s Strategies to anthropogenic climate change. Source Symptom Sector Suffering Greenhouse gases Temperature, precipitation, sea level rise Human Health, Water Resources, etc. Damages

14 Or:

15 Case Study 1: Damages caused by Man-made climate change induced heavy precipitation events in the Human Health Sector StrategyReal-life measures SOURCEMan-made Climate Change 1. Alternative/renewable energy; Decarbonization; Carbon tax/ Carbon markets 2.Energy demand management; Energy efficiency 3. Recover methane from land fills; Carbon sequestration; Scraping carbon out of atmosphere; Solar radiation management 4.Geoengineering SYMPTOMHeavy Precipitation Events 5.Relocation; Land use planning/Zoning; Evacuation 6.Improved roofing SECTORHuman Health 7.Increase capacity of storm sewers 8.Sink foundation in deeper than typical flooded areas SUFFERINGIncreased deaths, injuries, infectious respiratory & skin diseases 9.Medical aid 10. Mitigation Adaptation Emergency Management

16 Case Study 1: Comparison of mitigation and adaptation plans for Washington DC, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh

17 Case Study 1: Comparison of mitigation and adaptation plans for Washington DC, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh

18 This framework makes possible a “systematic analysis of options”. Is applicable to many kinds of hazards and sectors, including direct and indirect effects Defines mitigation and adaptation on physical underpinnings Facilitates systematic assessment of options that different sectors have, including co-benefits & synergies Provides basis for quantitative policy analysis and adaptation metrics Suggests timelines for implementation

19 Contact Information Frauke Hoss Kelly Klima The authors were supported by the Climate Decision Making Center (SES ) and by the center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (SES ), both through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation and Carnegie Mellon University.