10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 1 Terrorism Definitions Many Ambiguous Matter of perception “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.”

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 2 Certain aspects are fundamental Political act Desire for political change Terrorism is typically non-state in character (Note the separate but related topic of state terrorism – typically antithetical to the desire for political change.) States can terrorize, but they are not terrorists. Terrorists do not abide by norms They target innocents They seek psychological trauma

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 3 Historical Examples Zealots – Sicarri 1 st century BCE Murdered Romans in Broad daylight in Jerusalem. Hindu Thugee Thugs originally religious sect that strangled & robbed victims in ritual sacrifice Muslim Assassins It is a myth that the word assassin comes from the Arabic word haschishin for hashish user. Assassin comes from Hassassin -- a follower of Hassan – Hassan was Persian not Arabic.

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 4 More history of terrorism French revolution Use of revolutionary tribunals to prop up the French republic.

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10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 6 Modern Terrorism 4 Waves Breakup of empires Decolonization Leftist ant-Western sentiment Religious inspiration

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 7 Decolonization Examples Algeria South Africa Vietnam Israel

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 8 Ant-Western Wave Grew out of Vietnam Fostered by Soviets, Iran, Libya N Korea Has returned to Bite them Afghanistan Chechnya

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 9 Religious Wave - Jihad Iran Afghanistan Not new

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 10 Breakup of Empire Terrorists seek to provoke state to the point where the reaction leads to popular revolt. Seldom successful – but there are exceptions Tsarist Russia

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 11 Domestic terrorism Militias Oklahoma Any separatists? Policy terrorists Abortion Environmental

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 12 War on Terror Targets Policies Financial State directed International Agreement

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 13 Types Left-wing Right Wing Ethnonationalist/separatists Religious

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 14 Left wing terrorist Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian anti-materialist agendas Typically target elites that symbolize authority

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 15 Right wing terrorists Often target race and ethnicity

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 16 Ethnonationalist/separatists Usually have clear territorial objectives Liberation/separation Popular support usually along ethnic/racial lines.

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 17 Religious terrorists Believe involved in a struggle of good vs evil Acting along desires of a diety – audience thus not necessarily human. Feel unconstrained by law – higher calling Complete alienation from existing socio/political order Support may be diffuse

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 18 Basic trends in terrorism Fewer attacks More violent attacks (increasing lethality)

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 19 Media Impacts Media exposure to violence influences Opinion Attitude Emotional State! Women react to anxiety more than men (Men behave instrumentally)

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 20 Terrorism and WMD Biological Agents Chemical Agents Nuclear Materials/Weapons Cyberterrorism

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 21 Biological Weapons - History Poisoning of wells since pre-history Use of dead to poison water during Greeks & Romans Poisoned arrows/spears/”pungi sticks” Catapulting of plague victims in 1300s by Mongols US Army gave blankets of smallpox victims to Native Americans US tested anthrax in 1941 on island – declares uninhabitable in 1988 Japanese tested bioweapons on Chinese prisoners, possessed anthrax weapons

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 22 Biological Weapons Biotoxins Botulism clostridium botulinum Used to assassinate Reinhard Heydrich in Czechoslovakia in WWII Clostridium agents Tetanus Ricin From castor bean used to assassinate Georgi Markov (Hungarian defectors) Found in possession of group in London

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10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 24 Chemical Weapons - History WWI – Phosgene, Chlorine, Mustard Vietnam – Agent Orange Iraq-Iran – Aum Shinrikyo in Tokyo subway 1995

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 25 Chemical Weapons Nerve Agents Sarin (Aum Shinrikyo) VX (Iraq) Cyanide (Jonestown) Vesicants (Blister Agents) Mustard Gas (WWI) Lewisite (Japan ??)

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 26 Chemical Weapons (cont) Pulmonary Agents Phosgene (WWI) Chlorine (WWI) Riot Control Agents CS CN – Mace Pepper Spray

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10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 28 The Internet as a Vehicle for Political Conflict Dorothy Denning breaks down political conflict on the Internet as divided into: Activism Hactivism Cyberterrorism To which we can add: Cybernetic Warfare

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 29 Activism There are several ways that the Internet facilitates political activism Data Collection Censorship difficult Publication Exceptionally cost effective Opportunity for Dialogue Coordination and Communication Lobbying

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 30 Hactivism Hactivism catches the spirit of “non-violent protest” and Civil disobedience. In general, activism that crosses the boundary to uninvited intrusion or unwarranted interference The virtual sit-in or Blockade Denial of service attacks Mafia Boy Code Red bombs Web site defacement

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 31 Computer Hacking There are several levels of Computer Network “crime” that have become commonplace Hacking Uninvited intrusion of another compute Often seen as benign Cracking Intentionally circumventing security measures with the express purpose of obtaining or disseminating information, services, software for the material gain of self or others. (i.e. providing or using software cracks to circumvent license protection)

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 32 Cybernetic Crime Defacement Altering web site material for personal or political purposes Cyber-crime Theft or misappropriation of information for material gain (i.e. theft of credit card info)

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 33 Cybernetic Warfare The New Global Threat Paradigm Information warfare actions taken to degrade or manipulate an adversary's information systems while defending one's own. Cybernetic warfare, a form of information warfare involving operations to disrupt, deny, corrupt, or destroy information resident in computers and computer networks.

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 34 Cybernetic Warfare Transnational Infrastructure warfare, attacking a nation's key industries and utilities; telecommunications, energy and power, transportation, governmental operations and services, emergency services, financial, manufacturing, etc. Asymmetric warfare, attacking an adversary's weaknesses, avoiding his strengths, while preventing him from doing the same to you, using asymmetric means such as terrorism.

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 35 Cybernetic Warfare Asynchronous warfare, a pre-selected or delayed attack on an adversary taking advantage of the passage of time to develop a strategic opportunity or exploit a future vulnerability. Future Warfare Trends "Any sufficiently advanced technology is virtually indistinguishable from magic." Arthur Clarke, The Impact of Technology -- Technowar

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 36 Cybernetic Warfare The rapid pace of military technology in the areas of will continue. In particular precision weapons, Information, Communications Major technological breakthroughs in military capability are likely in the next two decades.

10/29/2003Strategic Intel page 37 Stegnography What is your quest? Tools