“ Multi-functional Mesoscale Observing Networks in Support of Integrated Forecasting Systems” A Report on a USWRP Workshop Organized by: Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma Walt Dabberdt, Vaisala Inc. Tom Schlatter, NOAA/OAR/FSL & CIRES Presentation to: WSN05 Toulouse, France

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 2 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  Overarching Recommendations 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 3 Workshop Goals  Develop a roadmap that leads to designing, testing and implementing integrated mesoscale observing-forecasting systems that: –yield improved mesoscale forecasts –utilize optimal observing system configurations –serve multiple applications –recognize the capabilities, interests and resources of the public, private and academic sectors  Explore appropriate business models that will support and enable these systems

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 4 Workshop Factoids Private Sector Public Sector TOTAL PARTICIPANTS Academia and NCAR Domestic Int’l. Total  Nowcasting --  Pat Welsh, NOAA/NWS (now U.No.Florida)  Jim Wilson, NCAR  Modeling and Data Assimilation --  Steve Koch, NOAA/OAR  Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University  Test Beds --  Marty Ralph, NOAA/OAR  Dave Jorgensen, NOAA/OAR  Implementation --  Joe Friday, University of Oklahoma (ret.)  Maria Pirone, AER, Inc. Working Group Leaders: Dates: 8-10 Dec. 2005

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 5 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  Overarching Recommendations  

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 6 Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations: Scope  What is the optimal mix of observations at the meso-, storm- and urban scales?  Examples of mesoscale forecast applications requiring improved observing capabilities include:  severe weather systems in both cold and warm seasons;  air quality and chemical emergency response;  aviation, marine and surface transportation; and  hydrology and more.  Modelers should be involved in the observing network decision process by designing observing system experiments to determine:  the most important variables to measure;  the minimum spacing and resolution requirements (network design);  adaptive and targeted sampling strategies; and  data assimilation techniques to effectively use these new measurements.

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 7 Modeling & Data Assimilation Recommendations: Remedy Deficiencies in Current Observational Networks Most desirable additional measurements:  Lower tropospheric measurements: – Mass, winds, moisture fields (3D) ~10 km horizontal; ~200 m vertical; 1-3 hrs – PBL turbulent fluxes, PBL heights – Turbulent flow and stability ~2 km; 15 min – Aerosols, chemical tracers, emissions data  Quantitative precipitation estimate: – Better accuracy, good and consistent quality control  Upper tropospheric measurements: – State variable measurements at 100 km spacing (0.5 km vertical), 1-3 hours – improved winds from satellite and regional aircraft – vertical profiling of state variables and hydrometeors in cloudy regions – increased vertical resolution from satellite –ozone profiling; –tropopause topology  Land surface properties: – Soil moisture and temperature profiles, snow cover and depth, SST, vegetation type/state updated daily  Radiative transfer inputs: –Ozone, CO2, water vapor, clouds

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 8 Modeling & Data Assimilation: Overarching Recommendations  It may be more cost effective to sample only the boundary layer with denser coverage than to similarly enhance observations in the upper troposphere for improving mesoscale analysis and prediction.  It may be cost effective to deploy intermittent, targeted observations at high resolution. Testbeds built around prototype observing networks need to be in place to provide real-data tests of proposed strategies

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 9 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  The Helsinki Testbed 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 10 Advanced Operational Nowcasting – Scope  Forecast Period: 0-6 hr  Forecast High Impact Events  Winter weather: heavy precipitation (precipitation type – major challenge), high winds, icing  Summer weather: high winds, heavy rain, lightning, hail  Air quality; dispersion of airborne toxins  Forecast Techniques  Extrapolation  Statistical  Numerical (process models)  Expert systems  Observing Systems - “All”  Important parameters to measure: low-level moisture; detection of sharp gradients; boundary-layer height; strength of capping inversion; energy potentially available for convection

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 11 Nowcasting Recommendations Top priority: Establish a national mesonetwork of surface stations.  NOAA should take the lead to establish this network, and set standards for data quality.  Resolution needed: 5min and 10-25km (topography-specific).  Basic measurements:  winds  temperature  humidity  pressure  precipitation amount and liquid equivalent  Application-specific options:  precipitation type and size distribution  soil temperature and moisture  radiation fluxes  ceiling height  visibility

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 12 Nowcasting Recommendations Priority Radar Recommendations:  NWS should proceed without delay with the (approved) addition of dual polarization capability to the WSR-88D network.  Pursue the National Research Council Study recommendation to integrate other radars into the WSR-88D network.  Support studies to investigate means for improving boundary-layer coverage in the future through the use of closely spaced X-band radars.  NWS should pursue vigorously plans for a national expansion of the NOAA Profiler Network with emphasis on boundary-layer observations.  A research field project should be conducted that tests the utility of radar refractivity measurements to improve nowcasting. Other Priority Recommendations:  Continue support for collaborative research projects aimed at using total lightning data to improve severe weather warnings and nowcasts.  Provide real-time near-surface water vapor fields to demonstrate how high- resolution water vapor fields can improve nowcasting.  Establish testbeds for very short period forecasting (0-6 hr, nowcasting) of high impact weather.

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 13 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  The Helsinki Testbed 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 14 Mesoscale Weather Forecasting -- Testbeds Testbed Definition: “A working relationship in quasi-operational framework among forecasters, researchers, private-sector, and government agencies aimed at solving operational and practical regional problems with a strong connection to end-users.”

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 15 Testbed Recommendations Testbeds are crucial in transitioning observing and modeling research into operations; a successful testbed must satisfy the following criteria:  Address the detection, monitoring, and prediction of regional phenomena of particular interest.  Engage experts in the phenomena of interest.  Involve stakeholders in planning, operation, and evaluation of the testbeds.  Define expected outcomes, including transition to operations, strategies for achieving them, and measures of success.  Provide special observing networks (and people, communications, and databases) needed for pilot studies and research  Provide resources for the generation and delivery of experimental products based upon these observations.

Mesoscale Networks: Observational needs vs. Applications

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 17 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  Overarching Recommendations 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 18 Mesoscale Observing Programs Are Proliferating: How can we build on them? x Mesowest ARM CART Oklahoma Mesonet Texas Mesonet AIRMAP Hi-res temperature forecasts for energy sector North American Monsoon Experiment Land-falling storms (PACJET) Air Quality Fire Weather Energy, Water, & Air Quality Issues Coastal Storms

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 19 Helsinki Testbed  Mesoscale weather research  Forecast and dispersion models: development and verification  Observing systems and strategies: test and design  Information systems and technology integration  End-user product development and demonstration  Data distribution for public and research community Observing Facilities (preliminary) 1 dual-pol Doppler radar 4 C-band Doppler radars 101 surface wx stations* 191 road weather stations 42 two-level AWS masts 3 shipboard weather stations 11 backscatter lidars 1 UHF wind profiler 3 RAOB sounding stations 34 precipitation sites (part of 101)* satellite obs. (GS and PO) COSMIC RI soundings EUCOS operational network

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 20 Beijing Observational Network Development Plan ( ) 150km Source: CMA, July 2003

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 21 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  Overarching Recommendations 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 22 Implementation of Integrated Mesoscale Observing-Forecasting Systems Focus: Explore the potential for forming a consortium of public-private-academic partners to implement a national mesoscale observing network based on the needs of the user communities, including:  Modeling community  General public  Commercial markets Drivers: What are the major drivers of partnerships for mesoscale observing networks?

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 23 Implementation Recommendations: A partnership arrangement was proposed for creation of consortia to develop, maintain and support regional mesoscale networks or even a composite national network.  The proposed network(s) would consist of a mix of privately owned measurement systems, publicly owned systems and newly acquired systems supplied by the consortia.  Each consortium collects and quality-controls the data, and supports the real- time dissemination of data and information products (e.g. analyses and forecasts).  Consortium members share rights, costs and revenues according to a “participation formula” (tbd)  Typical member roles:  The public sector members access the data for the public good; i.e. public safety.  The private-sector consortium members (and possibly academic partners) use the data to create and sell various value-added products.  Academia and non-profit research centers have access to the data for educational and research purposes.

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 24 Presentation Outline  Workshop goals and background  Recommendations of the Modeling & Data Assimilation Workgroup  Recommendations of the Nowcasting Workgroup  Recommendations of the Testbed Workgroup  Existing and Planned Testbeds -- Domestic and International  Recommendations of the Implementation Workgroup  Overarching Recommendations 

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 25 Four Overarching Recommendations  Adopt the testbed concept as a priority mechanism for transitioning mesoscale observing and modeling advances from research to operations  Form a multi-sector “tiger team” to develop a functional design for a working testbed, and recommend one or more testbeds for the most pressing unmet requirements.  Develop alliances among public agencies who have complementary mesoscale needs (e.g. NOAA/NWS; Dept. of Homeland Security; EPA; DoD) to leverage resources and minimize costs.  Develop partnerships among the public, academic and private sectors that will facilitate the establishment and ongoing support of mesoscale testbeds and, subsequently, operational mesoscale observing-forecasting enterprises

Carr / Dabberdt / Schlatter | 5 Sept 2005 | WSN05 | Page 26 Mesoscale Workshop..end..end..end..end..end.. For complete article, see: Dabberdt et al., BAMS, 86(7), July 2005,