OPEN:EU Initial Seminar Scenarios and Policy Analysis Katy Roelich - Stockholm Environment Institute Doris Knoblauch - Ecologic Institute

Scenario and Policy Analysis Aims of the scenarios webinar: To explain the purpose of developing scenarios for OPEN To invite comment on the methodology for scenario development To show how you could get involved To start to form a stakeholder group There will be questions at key points to prompt discussion You will have an opportunity for more detailed comment after event

Scenarios are plausible representations of the future based on sets of internally consistent assumptions either about relationships and processes of change or about desired end states Scenario planning employs qualitative and or quantitative tools to visualise the future, including storylines to create representations of alternative worlds that resonate with a wide range of different individuals Scenarios create a framework for using a tool like Eureapa. Effectively a reality check for the tool What are scenarios? We can address uncertainty and complexity by using scenarios to explore the future.

Why are Scenarios important? One Planet Europe 2050 What will the future be like? Where should we intervene in a complex system? Who should act? What is driving change? What policies can we use? How effective will policy be? How will consumptio n change between now and 2050? Problem: Complexity & Uncertainty Scenario & Policy Analysis Promote action & analysis EUREAPA produces robust results for future impacts Plot path to One Planet Economy

Aims of scenarios and policy analysis Scenarios and policy analysis Identify and quantity potential interventions Build consensus Stimulate engagement Enable proactive decision making Scenario = plausible future Policy analysis = path to One Planet Economy

Outcome of our scenario work Example: IPCC scenarios for what might happen to carbon emissions in a selection of futures. Used to test policy options. Scenarios - how the impact of consumption changes from now to a number of possible futures – where might we intervene? Policy - implications of policy approaches in these different scenarios - how might we achieve a One Planet Europe?

Benefits of scenarios Scenarios can be used to: Challenge current perceptions Provide a common language Stimulate discussion and creativity Identify how and when to intervene Test the robustness of Policy We will use the scenarios within the project but also want people to use the scenarios after the project. Scenarios will help us understand how consumption might change in the future.

Benefits of policy analysis Policy analysis will show that: There are different routes towards a One Planet Europe – not one solution! The impact of policy will vary in different scenarios We want other people to use the findings of this analysis after the project. Policy analysis will help us test current policy approaches to understand how far they can help us move towards a One Planet Economy

Questions Do you think we have got the aims right? We would welcome any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share Please use the chat function to comment now Or Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire that follows

How will we develop scenarios? Robust methodology UNEP sponsored methodology Well regarded and practical Participation Access specialised knowledge Get different perspectives Create buy in Reach those whose minds we want to change New Tool: EUREAPA Range of indicators Impact of consumption

Scenario Development: Stage 1 Clarify Purpose and Structure Lay the foundations Develop and test Better Boundaries = Better Scenarios Understanding Actors = Better Scenarios Who will use the scenarios? What are the aims of the scenarios? What are we measuring? Who is in the scenario? What is driving change in the scenario? What kind of policy might we explore in the scenarios? You will be invited to comment on a summary of our findings in Sep 2010.

Scenario Development: Stage 2 Clarify Purpose and Structure Lay the foundations Develop and test Managing uncertainty - Setting a framework  How might drivers change?  Which drivers have most impact and are most uncertain?  How does this shape our possible futures? We invite you to participate in this at a workshop in Sep 2010.

Scenario Development: Stage 3 Clarify Purpose and Structure Lay the foundations Develop and test What happens to consumption in our futures - scenarios? What do our futures look like? What is the impact of consumption in our futures? Using Eureapa to develop reference scenarios How effective is policy in our futures - policy analysis? What effect does policy have on the impact of consumption in our futures? Testing effects of policy on impact using Eureapa How close could we get to One Planet Europe? We need to consult stakeholders to test assumptions & outcomes.

Questions Do you have any immediate comments on the proposed approach? What are the main challenges you think we will face? How would you use the scenarios? How would you use the policy analysis? Have you got any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share? Please use the chat function to comment now Or Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire that follows

Why participate? It will make scenarios more relevant to you and so more useful Relevance We will have more perspectives making the scenarios better and more robust. Robustness Scenarios will be developed to make them useful to a wider audience Range

How to participate Stakeholder workshop 8- 9th September Further consultation This webinar & questionnaire Clarify Purpose and Structure Lay the foundations Develop and test Stake- holders Jun 2010 Sept 2010Mar 2011

Would you like to join the stakeholder group? Do you know anybody else that would like to join? Any other comments? Questions Please use the chat function to comment now Or Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire that follows