What’s Needed for Rational Discussion of Resource Adequacy: A Framework and Some Facts * presented by Kevin Woodruff, Principal, Woodruff Expert Services, to Power Agency of Northern California 2014 Annual Seminar session on Resource Adequacy Issues for California - Cost & Risk May 20, 2014 * Adapted from Case for More Forward Procurement is Murky, but Need for Transparency is Clear, presented at Workshop in CPUC Joint Reliability Plan (R ), May 2, 2014.

Figure 1 Model of IOUs’ Current Forward RA Procurement Woodruff Slides for Power Agency of Northern California 2014 Annual Seminar, May 20, 2014 N.B. Current Mid-Term Procurement, Uncontracted Capacity / Surplus, and Future Mid-Term Procurements are home for existing gas generation and imports.

Figure 2 IOUs’ Bundled Procurement Plans, as of 2012 Sources: : CPUC Resource Adequacy policy : IOUs’ final Bundled Procurement Plan filings. SONGS Capacity (2,246 MW): CAISO 2013 Net Qualifying Capacity List. AES Contract Capacity (3,818 MW): SCE Advice Letter 2853-E. Notes: Expected Demand Response, Energy Efficiency and some customer generation deducted from load. Capacity of PG&E Qualifying Facility contracts not included due to confidentiality limits. 3 Woodruff Slides for Power Agency of Northern California 2014 Annual Seminar, May 20, 2014

Figure 3 IOUs’ Recent Mid-Term Capacity RFOs 4 Woodruff Slides for Power Agency of Northern California 2014 Annual Seminar, May 20, 2014

Figure 4 IOUs’ Forward Procurement of Flexible Capacity * * Data last updated July Woodruff Slides for Power Agency of Northern California 2014 Annual Seminar, May 20, 2014