Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 1/24 RTOFS report with a short diversion to other NCEP and NOAA activities. Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis.

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Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 1/24 RTOFS report with a short diversion to other NCEP and NOAA activities. Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 2/24 Almost out of scope  Other activities in NOAA relevant for GOVST GFDL:  Climate scale ocean modeling:  Going from MOM to GOLD.  Moving to coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean.  Appears to be some renewed interest in coupled hurricane modeling. NOS:  Operational models transitioned to NCEP compute:  GL, Chesapeake, Delaware and Tampa Bay.  Northern Gulf, SF Bay, Columbia river next.  IOOS RA-s. NOAA storm surge roadmap team lead by NOS  Strong link with USACE, Academia.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 3/24 Almost out of scope  Ditto at NCEP: CFS:  Probabilistic seasonal forecasting up to 9 months.  CFC v2 operation, v3 in design stages.  ENKF being set up for GODAS (MOM4). Other relevant products …

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 4/24 GODAS 3DVAR Ocean Model MOMv4 fully global 1/2 o x1/2 o (1/4 o in tropics) 40 levels Atmospheric Model GFS (2007) T levels Land ModelIce Mdl SIS LDAS GDAS GSI 6hr 24h r 6hr Ice Ext 6hr Climate Forecast System CFS layout

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 5/24 RTOFS  Four major efforts: Eddy resolving ocean modeling. Eddy resolving ocean initialization. Coupled modeling for hurricanes. Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS. All RTOFS models based on the community HYCOM model, MMAB is part of the HYCOM consortium. RTOFS-Global RTOFS-Atlantic nested RTOFS coupled to HWRFRTOFS-NEMS Operational 2005 Operational 10/25/2011 Live testing Early development

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 6/24 RTOFS-Atlantic  RTOFS-Atlantic First full HYCOM model to become operational at NCEP. Replacing previous POM model for East Coast (excluding Gulf of Mexico).  Lack of capability to get Gulf Stream to detach properly from Cap Hatteras. Issues with model:  Left in limbo to get RTOFS-Global in fast.  Major boundary fixes this week.  To be nested in RTOFS-Global.  Expect to be fully up to speed in 6 months.  Next decision point: do we keep this model around? Tides. 4-6 km coastal resolution for US.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 7/24 paradigm shift for NWS RTOFS-Global Push to global model (vs. regional models):  Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB.  Provide boundary data for regional models. Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP).  GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle). Timeline:  Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVOCEANO (NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO).  FY2014: full initialization at NCEP. NOMADS as main distribution points (OpenDAP, NetCDF). RTOFS-Atlantic as testbed for global. Linking to NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework. No tides yet (unlike RTOFS-Atlantic)

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 8/24 RTOFS-Global Grid and layer 1 temperature snapshot: Conversion to GFS forcing “clean”, but we want to look in more detail at the Artic Ocean.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 9/24 RTOFS-Global Nowcast/Hindcast using GDAS from n-48 to n-00 hours Forecast Step 1 using GFS from n-00 to f-48 hours Forecast Step 2 using GFS from f-49 to f-96 hours Forecast Step 3 using GFS from f-97 to f-144 hours 00 Z06 Z12 Z18 Z Initialization file from NAVO at n-48 hours via TOC Post-processing: generation of NetCDF files after each step (adding selected GRIB2 later).

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 10/24 RTOFS-Global

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 11/24 RTOFS-Global  Products: Class I : Global netCDF files on native horizontal grid but interpolated to isolevels. Delivery via NOMADS, ftpprd and NODC archives.  Surface 3 hourly files (8 variables) ~ 120 GB per cycle  Volume 3D files daily (8 variables, 33 z levels) ~ 160 GB per cycle.  Target: General user; maximum flexibility for slicing/dicing data using NOMADS/OpenDAP servers (both GDS & TDS). Class II: Sub-regional and basin GRIB2 files (Mercator grid).  Delivery via ftpprd and AWIPS.  Surface 3 hourly files (7 variables) ~ 5 GB per cycle  Target: Internal NWS needs to provide results on AWIPS or via FTP.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 12/24 RTOFS-Global  Products cont’ed: Class III: Regional (CONUS-East, CONUS-West, Alaska) netCDF files.  Delivery via NOMADS and NODC archives.  Volume 6 hourly files (u,v,T,S)  Target: Other centers within NCEP (TPC, OPC) and NOS applications. Eventually tide-resolving output time intervals.  Requires NOMADS upgrades.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 13/24 RTOFS-Global  Focus on producing GODAE metrics products  Examples follow: Class 1: Differences with SSH fields from independent analyses. Class 2: Drifts from climatology at selected WOCE sections. Class 3: Location of Gulf Stream. Class 4: Statistics on location of Gulf Stream; Daily comparison with independent SST, SSH data.  Working on: Class 3: Transports at more than 100 sections. Class 4: Comparisons of forecasts/analysis with ARGO profiles.

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 14/24 RTOFS-Global

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 15/24 RTOFS-Global

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 16/24 RTOFS-Global

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 17/24 Fukushima  EMC became US government lead on  ocean plume modeling for Fukushima Dai’ichi ocean contamination. Collaboration in large Interagency work group. Leveraging modeling from Navy, DTRA, NOS.  NCEP Navy model data distribution point. CONOPS to rapidly generate actionable information for decision makers.  Product 1: Surface particle tracing to identify potentially contaminated areas.(April 6, 180 d)  Product 2: Contamination estimates using particle tracing + HYSPLIT atm. Deposits.(April 20, 180 d)  Product 3: Full dispersion model as passive decaying tracers, using direct release (NOS) and atm. deposit (NCEP)(dev., still much source issues)

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 18/24 Not for distribution, internal use only Fukushima

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 19/24 RTOFS-HWRF  Ongoing experiments Real time parallel runs since Switching over to RTOFS-Global. Many lessons learned

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 20/24 RTOFS-HWRF HyHWRF average intensity error and bias are the best among participant models, except degradation at 12h in average error and negative bias at 24h. HyHWRF standard deviation is consistently the smallest, except 12 and 24 h. Intensity Forecast for 6 TCs (186 cases): Gert07L, Irene09L, Katia12L, Maria14L, Ophelia16L, and Philippe17L HY11=HyHWRF2011; HWRF=operational HWRF 20

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 21/24 RTOFS-HWRF HyHWRF exhibits comparable performance with HWRF for average track error and standard deviation (STD), except STD outperformance at h. GFDL shows mixed comparison but the best STD. HyHWRF track bias is the same northeastward as HWRF, but the bias magnitude is better than the HWRF. GFDL shows west/northwestward bias. Track Forecast for 6 TCs (186 cases): Gert07L, Irene09L, Katia12L, Maria14L, Ophelia16L, and Philippe17L HY11=HyHWRF2011; HWRF=operational HWRF 21

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 22/24 RTOFS-NEMS Working on 0.25 degree HYCOM for coupling to weather models (GFS, CFS). Model setup and free runs successful. Moving to coupled test version with GFS in NEMS in coming year. Year 5 day 2Year 5 day 180

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 23/24 Coupling  Some additional considerations on coupling Moving to hurricane coupling including waves.  Many more exchange parameters, sea spay to constrain fluxes. Ice model for weather time scale critical for successful weather time scale coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Additional focus on wave-surge model. WAVEWATCH III – ADCIRC 1-way coupled NCEP – LSU – ND collaboration URI coupling approach (I Ginis)

Tolman 11/17/2011GOVST III, 24/24