Detection of mortality clusters associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry: a theoretical analysis by Nicholas J Savill, Suzanne G St.

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Detection of mortality clusters associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry: a theoretical analysis by Nicholas J Savill, Suzanne G St. Rose, and Mark E.J Woolhouse Interface Volume 5(29): December 6, 2008 ©2008 by The Royal Society

(a) Expected number of false alarms per production cycle against daily mortality detection threshold for various background daily mortality rates for a flock of birds and production cycle of 365 days. Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society

Expected number of false alarms per production cycle against weekly mortality detection threshold for various background daily mortality rates (black solid line, 0.01%; red dashed line, 0.05%; green dot-dashed line, 0.2%; blue double dot-dashed line, 0.5%)... Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society

(a) Expected number of false alarms per production cycle against cage mortality detection threshold for various numbers of birds per cage (black solid line, 5; red dashed line, 10; green dot-dashed line, 20; blue double dot-dashed line, 40; yellow dot-dashe... Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society

Time to detection in floor-reared birds for (a–c) H5N1 and (d–f) H7N7 against (a,d) daily mortality, (b,e) weekly mortality and (c,f) symptoms detection thresholds for different flock sizes (black solid line, 1000; red dashed line, 5000; green dot-dashed li... Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society

Time to detection in caged birds for (a) H5N1 and (b) H7N7 against cage mortality detection threshold for different numbers of birds per cage (black solid line, 5; red dashed line, 10; green dot-dashed line, 20; blue double dot-dashed line, 40; yellow dot-d... Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society

Time to detection against R0 for (a,b) floor-reared birds and (c,d) caged birds for (a,c) H5N1 and (b,d) H7N1 for different flock sizes (black solid line, 1000; red dashed line, ; green dot- dashed line, ) or birds per cage (black solid line, 5;... Nicholas J Savill et al. J. R. Soc. Interface 2008;5: ©2008 by The Royal Society