April 10, 2007 Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Reno, Nevada May 8-12, 2011 Presented by: Jaesup Lee, Virginia Department of Transportation Paul Agnello, Virginia Department of Transportation Patrick Coleman, AECOM

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Overview 1.Project under consideration 2.Potential travel markets for new facility 3.Forecasting tool (soon to be) available 4.Potential Forecasting Methodology 5.Questions

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Proposed Project South of US 17 in Spotsylvania County to just south of Route 234 in Prince William County Proposed to operate as HOV (and Bus)/HOT facility Overlaps/connects with I- 95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes project (to DC area) Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment, I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference The project, con’t. Two-lane, reversible, limited access express route in I-95 median Buses, HOV-3, and motorcycles travel free Electronic tolling (EZPASS) for other users – rate could vary by time of day, travel speed, etc. Conceptual operations plan: Midnight to 10 am – northbound 10 am to noon – closed for switchover Noon to 10 pm – southbound 10 pm to midnight – closed for switchover Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment, I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Potential Travel Market- Person Trips to DC Core Source: 2009 NHTS Virginia Add On Version 2 I-95 Project Year 2009 Average Weekday Person Trips

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Potential Travel Market - Travel to DC Core by Transit Virginia Railway Express (VRE) Fredericksburg Line Potomac and Rappahannock Transportation Commission (PRTC) Commuter Buses Source: 2007 VRE On Board Survey Source: 2008 MWCOG Regional Bus Survey Other private commuter bus operators

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Slug Travel Market (We’re not talking Mollusks)! Source: Unique to DC area (and maybe SF) Casual carpools Pick up/drop off at designated areas Free ride, drivers get HOV access “Slug” coined by bus operators – similar to counterfeit tokens

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Slugs, con’t. Source: SIR/VDOT, Survey of Northern Virginia Sluggers, January 2011

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference The Tool - Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) model Current Version (3) Assigns highway trips to three time periods (AM Peak, PM Peak, Off Peak) Models HOT lanes using a diversion curve from I-394 MnPass project Contains a process to estimate Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail trips from Fredericksburg to Washington, DC area No full mode choice Version 4 under development Part of VDOT Major Models Update plan Updated trip generation/distribution using NHTS Virginia Add On Final highway assignment in four time periods (AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak, Night) Revised volume-delay functions (and forecast tolling methodology)

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference More FAMPO model enhancements Expanded model area to include the southern Prince William County region below the Occoquan River. The zones, nodes and links are from the NCRTPB model network (v2.2 with 2191 zones) and renumbered Select link analysis procedures in the NCRTPB model to obtain the additional trip flows from/to southern Prince William County Transit networks coded and skim procedures set up for the “regular” transit (FRED buses and VRE feeders) and “commuter” transit (PRTC, MARTZ, QUICK and VRE routes). Full mode choice models Internal trip purposes (FRED Routes) Commuter (HBW IE) trip purpose (travel on I-95 corridor to DC area) CUBE Scripts and catalogs consistent with other VDOT models

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Fredericksburg Expanded Model Area

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Updated Fredericksburg Highway Network

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Potential Forecasting Methodology No existing toll facility in immediate area No available Stated Preference (SP) survey in corridor Current FAMPO model uses toll diversion curve on experience in Minnesota (SP data from I-394 MnPASS Express Lanes) New model will use a logit-type assignment based procedure start with South Florida SP data addresses differing values of time constants to capture reliability and other unquantifiable aspects

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Toll Choice Model from South Florida Source: RSG, Documentation for South Florida SP Travel Survey and Toll Mode Choice Models, July 2006

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference $5 toll comparison between MSP and South Florida Illustrates differing VOTs by region For 20 minute savings 20% toll in MSP but 30% in South Florida Source: AECOM

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Potential Implementation in Fredericksburg Coefficients: Transfer Palm Beach coefficients to the FAMPO model Adjust cost coefficients to reflect differences in income between Palm Beach County and Fredericksburg Examine Dulles Toll Road SP survey for more localized VOTs Constants: Not transferable due to unique nature of travel in South Florida No existing facility in Fredericksburg for calibration Use a relatively close Peer facility to do a simple “calibration” in a spreadsheet Careful testing to ensure any modeled results are reasonable

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Dulles Greenway – potential peer facility 12.5 mile privately owned toll road in Northern Virginia Connects end of Dulles (Airport) Toll Road with the Leesburg Bypass (U.S. 15/SR 7) Best regional candidate because of “base” and “congestion management” toll rates and electronic (EZPASS) discounts similar to many HOT lanes

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia 13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference Questions?