Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology Richard C. Johnson May 3, 2006

Outline Review of Key Politics and Psychology Concepts Review of Key Politics and Psychology Concepts Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR Drilling Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR Drilling Questions and Comments Questions and Comments

Reminder – Come in with a Plan The background materials will give you a good idea of what the topic will be The background materials will give you a good idea of what the topic will be Worthwhile to ponder likely questions Worthwhile to ponder likely questions –For example, poll related question in psychology, interests/coalition question in politics Use reading day to map key isuses out in your mind and on paper Use reading day to map key isuses out in your mind and on paper

Know Your Strengths and Structure Your Time Richard’s suggestions (by no means the only way to go) Richard’s suggestions (by no means the only way to go) –Start with statistics: often reveals key information for other sections –Move to politics and psych: if you put off until the end, you may run out of time to answer completely –Spend the afternoon wracking your brain on economics

Key Politics Concepts The Four “I”s The Four “I”s –Interests Electoral, policy, moral? Electoral, policy, moral? –Institutions Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy, culture Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy, culture –Ideology Personal beliefs, partisanship Personal beliefs, partisanship –Information Does complete information exist? Sources? Does complete information exist? Sources?

Other Things to Remember Role of leadership Role of leadership Bureaucracy – turf wars, culture Bureaucracy – turf wars, culture “Markets vs. Governments” “Markets vs. Governments” Elections and Electoral Politics Elections and Electoral Politics Types of Interest Groups – strength and importance Types of Interest Groups – strength and importance

Identify Key Interest Groups and Coalitions Background material should provide sufficient info on issue Background material should provide sufficient info on issue Explain both sides of issue Explain both sides of issue Identify groups associated with pro and con, describe “winners” and “losers” Identify groups associated with pro and con, describe “winners” and “losers” Note relative strengths of each group and connection to your policymaker Note relative strengths of each group and connection to your policymaker Point out “strange bedfellows” and potential divisions in policymaker’s base constituency Point out “strange bedfellows” and potential divisions in policymaker’s base constituency

Making a Recommendation Does the question ask for a policy recommendation? Does the question ask for a policy recommendation? Be CLEAR and SPECIFIC Be CLEAR and SPECIFIC Moderation is usually best Moderation is usually best Explain why recommendation is best from both a policy and political perspective Explain why recommendation is best from both a policy and political perspective

Second Question – IR? Again, key info from background materials Again, key info from background materials Realism vs. liberalism Realism vs. liberalism Multilateral vs. unilateral Multilateral vs. unilateral Role of domestic public opinion in international relations Role of domestic public opinion in international relations

Key Psychology Concepts “Power of the Situation” “Power of the Situation” Prospect Theory Prospect Theory –Valuing losses greater than gains Framing Framing Bounded Rationality Bounded Rationality Discounting (Myopia) Discounting (Myopia) Biases and Heuristics Biases and Heuristics –E.g. availability, representative, anchoring

More Psych Concepts Status Quo Biases Status Quo Biases Uncertainty Uncertainty Choices Choices Procedural Justice Procedural Justice “Groupthink” – social proof “Groupthink” – social proof Influence Influence –Social diffusion –Channel factors –Personal endorsements/credibility/authority

Polling Methodology Question Q: What do poll results tell us about attitudes toward policy? Q: What do poll results tell us about attitudes toward policy? A: How is the question framed? A: How is the question framed? –Is there information in the question that could affect the response? –Availability heuristic, choices A: Is the issue salient? Do people have strong opinions? A: Is the issue salient? Do people have strong opinions?

Polling Methodology Question A: What is the sample makeup? Are different polls using different samples? A: What is the sample makeup? Are different polls using different samples? How is issue framed? How is issue framed? –As a loss –As a gain –What is more effective?

Framing/Implementation Question Prospect theory – loss aversion Prospect theory – loss aversion –Weighting losses more than gains –Framing as loss more effective Status quo bias Status quo bias What is the anchor? What is the anchor?

Framing/Implementation Question Myopia/Discounting Myopia/Discounting –Do people really think long term or short term? –How can you influence people to make good decisions in the long term based on short term effects? Group Dynamics? Group Dynamics? Social Diffusion Social Diffusion Channel Factors Channel Factors Procedural Justice Procedural Justice

2002 QE1 – Politics (#8) “unusual coalitions” “unusual coalitions” –Pro: conservatives, GOP, Alaskans, oil/gas companies, auto industry, –Role of organized labor “strange bedfellows” effect “strange bedfellows” effect Mixed depending on union Mixed depending on union –Con: Dems, travel industry, enrivos

2002 QE1 – Politics (#8) “Congressional elections” “Congressional elections” –Democrats Dems will link to special interests (Enron) Dems will link to special interests (Enron) Focus on negative enviro impact Focus on negative enviro impact Labor split will hurt Dems Labor split will hurt Dems –Republicans Focus on national security Focus on national security Gas prices Gas prices Job Creation Job Creation –Diffused impact – stronger in some areas/races than others Current events could impact (MidEast, gas prices) Current events could impact (MidEast, gas prices)

2001 QE1 – Politics (#7) Mostly from background readings Mostly from background readings 1970s MidEast is not today’s MidEast 1970s MidEast is not today’s MidEast –US imports more diverse (Russia/Canada) –Not as wealthy, need to maintain domestic stability Domestic opinion in Arab states Domestic opinion in Arab states More complex that Khalilzad implies in transcript More complex that Khalilzad implies in transcript

2002 QE1 – Psych (#5) Earlier NYT poll had more with knowledge of ANWR than later Gallup poll Earlier NYT poll had more with knowledge of ANWR than later Gallup poll –Suggests weak interests or knowledge NYT poll references “conservation” NYT poll references “conservation” NYT has more opposed to drilling NYT has more opposed to drilling Gallup, more neutral, shows support but also lack of knowledge Gallup, more neutral, shows support but also lack of knowledge Implies answer based on framing of question Implies answer based on framing of question “Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls” “Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls”

2002 QE1 – Psych (#5) Status quo bias Status quo bias –Could emphasize that oil was eventually going to be drilled (loss less severe) –“Cost” of not drilling is increased gas prices, market and political instability –National security could worsen Group dynamics – identify with supportive Alaskans Group dynamics – identify with supportive Alaskans

2002 QE1 – Psych (#6) People heavily discount future People heavily discount future –Out-of-pocket costs of fuel efficient car deter purchase in short run despite long term benefits Overcome this by: Overcome this by: –Using personal accounts –Social diffusion/group solidarity –Make impact immediate (HOV lane?) –Personal endorsements/authority figure

Good luck! Questions?