Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Changing the Research to Operations Framework to Include All Partners: First Steps Toward the New Paradigm Dr. Eve Gruntfest and Monica Zappa Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop October 27, 2009 Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM) University of Oklahoma

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Today’s presentation 1.Evidence that the process of weaving in social science and changing the stovepiped paradigm is underway Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM) WAS * IS (Weather and Society * Integrated Studies) 2.Our contributions to this workshop Methods and results from interviews - tornado and hurricane examples Inclusive model with all players as equal partners 3.Ways to move forward together this week and after the workshop

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM) The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice water

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice The WAS*IS movement Began as 1 workshop … now 7 Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2008) Summer WAS*IS (August 2009) Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS Springfield, MO December 2008 Kansas City, MO January 2009 ANDY BAILEY is HERE Omaha, NE September 2009 As of October, WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Groundwork prior to this workshop Workshops – Advanced WAS * IS workshop in Norman with Hazardous Weather Testbed September 2008 – NEX GEN warning meeting December 2008 Call to Action policy changes and discussions – Tornadoes and vehicles – Report from Ike Integrated Warning Team meetings (after Kansas City meeting) All TV stations have consistent warning map colors Live Skype video from NWS office on air during severe weather List-serve list for all IWT members in KC metro Increased NWS chat adoption and use Developing set of uniform siren guidelines for KC metro

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Challenge To develop ways to incorporate preferences of forecasters and decision-makers in new hazard warning tools Our experiment to bring forecaster and decision-maker stories and experiences to enrich the context in which new tools are invented Take advantage of existing capacity in Boulder and Norman – how can we work together effectively

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Publics Weather Forecasters Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers Today’s end-to-end decision-making relationships

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Our methods Conduct interviews across the spectrum of folks participating in the workshop Construct graphics highlighting spatial and temporal needs of forecasters and decision-makers Weave needs of decision-makers into the workshop agenda and next generation warning products Complex process – – We’ve only scratched the surface – Need for patience– many languages – listening a MUST – Commitment to new ways of doing business Developing interactive end-to-end practices that change the paradigm to include all partners all the time

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Study Participants PositionRegional Jurisdiction Major Hazard Concerns Partners Manager for information and hydrologic warnings Denver area: Multi- county Hydro: Flash flooding, snow melt flooding Broadcast meteorologistKansas City viewing areaSevere weather County emergency managerGalveston County, TexasTropical Weather Forecasters National weather service forecaster/information technology officer Pueblo forecast office Hydro, Winter weather, Severe weather National weather service forecasterMemphis forecast office Short-fuse events: tornado, severe storm Developers/Manage rs GSD meteorologist/software engineerNAAll hazards National Weather Service software developer NA Short-fuse events: tornado, severe storm National Weather Center program manager NA Short-fuse events: tornado, severe storm

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Finding - Interviewed forecaster and developer have different concerns One forecaster – Too many types of warnings to keep track of – Difficulty with beginning and ending times (especially in situations with many warnings at once) One developer – Many warnings do not follow the storm and parts of counties get clipped out – Boundary issues: forecast office warning jurisdictions – Often not enough lead-time when new warnings are not issued until the storm leaves the old polygon

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice One weather forecaster Super Tuesday events February 2, 2008 Many overlapping warnings – ending/beginning Number of warnings was extremely difficult for the forecasters to monitor At one point 20 warnings (tornado and severe thunderstorm) issued for our forecast area. Forecasters had to keep track of all the warnings, when they start and stop Warnings were continuously expiring and being reissued – Many places were in and out of warnings several times W1W3W2W10 W4 W11W8W5W9W6W7W12W14W13W15W16W17W18W19W20 Time t0t0 W1 W3W11W5W9W6W7W14W13W15W17 W18 W19 t 1 =1h 20 Warnings W21W22W23W24

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Storm Motion 11:02-11:20 11:50-12:20 11:12-11:43 11:05-11:35 11:00:11:21 10:55-11:15 11:02-11:35 11:36-12:23 11:46-12:18 11:45-12:21 11:55-12:25 11:49-12:28 11:51-12:26 11:40-12:27 11:45-12:20 12:29-12:48 12:26-12:40 12:28-12:50 12:27-12:51 12:28-12:48 12:29-12:48 Current time Warnings must follow the storm– too much confusion (hypothetical case)

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Program settings exclude counties if only a small part of the warning is included Most severe weather was missed in this event Gaps between polygons can exclude severe portions of the storm A problem for people that receive warnings from a GPS mobile device One programmer's perspective

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice N-S Space Scale E- W Time Scale 0 km 100 Km 1000 km 100 Km 1000 km 6 lead real Jan Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3 Feb 4Feb 5 First outlook issued 1 st watch issued (2pm) 2 nd watch issued (3pm) 1 st warning issued 9pm Nashville sirens sounded 13 fatalities 44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials Hospitals, Schools, Events? 26 tornado warnings issued 8 severe storm warnings Geographic space scales: Regional, State, Local Area (Km 2 ) 10 Km Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made and by whom

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Area of concern 5 Days4 Days3 Days2 Days1 DayEvent 1,000,000 km 2 100,000 km 2 1,000 km 2 10,000 km 2 One county emergency manager’s hurricane warning time/space considerations Conference calls EMs & NWS – storm potential Decisions about whether or not to evacuate special needs populations Decisions about whether or not to evacuate everyone at risk Evacuations – none, some/all of county NWS Forecasts are integrated in storm surge models Evacuation decision begin: When? Who? To where? Order busses?

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Examples of societal impacts - Public perspectives Consider people and infrastructure – If a area is not in a warning does that mean there is not a threat? – When (days, hours, rush hour, holiday, first snow of season) – What facilities (roads, hospitals, schools, factories) – What kinds of (probability, threat levels) information may be useful to different publics BEFORE the time of a warning? – No such thing as ideal lead time – Tell what you know People planning a trip or large outdoor event Mobile home dwellers without nearby shelter or without transportation Hiker

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Publics Weather Forecasters Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers Relationships addressed in Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop Various publics are not represented at workshop

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Putting it all together: Future relationships for developing effective warnings Interactive relationships with all the hazardous weather decision makers Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings Publics Weather Forecasters Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Change “public education” paradigm – recognize two -way relationships – The “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors Flash flood example Drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than driving across flooded road Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations – THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Changing Research-to-Operations paradigm – Show commitment to sustained efforts Sponsor more efforts to bring players together (software developers and researchers with each other – Boulder and Norman) – Testbeds – Workshops Recognize consistent themes NO one size fits all NO perfect lead-time Time and space needs are case and person specific Bring in social science to help with tool development, surveys of publics, forecasters, and other decision-makers and program evaluations

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Ways to move forward Involve social scientists – Identify best ways to change the paradigm to be more inclusive (Bring in more associations, agencies, companies, universities, local governments) – Be equal players with software developers, modelers, and physical scientists – Perform program effectiveness evaluation research – Participate in more local Integrated Warning Team workshops (Develop local collaborations between emergency managers, media, NWS)

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice National Weather Service hydrologists Private forecasters Environmental groups Local communities Emergency managers Changing the Research-to-Operations paradigm occurs when stovepipes are not the model Universities Research centers Software developers Urban drainage districts Anthropologists, Geographers Broadcast meteorologists Utilities National Weather Service meteorologists

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice What did the most influential players in weather warning work look like prior to the Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) Workshop?

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

Effective new hazardous weather warnings require more than new technologies, models and tools – new ways of thinking about hazards and warnings are required

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice The people of the Global Systems Division, the Hazardous Weather Testbed- All of us are changing the uni-dimensional culture

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Dr. Tracy Hansen for her vision and hard work to bring us all together today and… from now on in sustainable ways All of US committed to better hazard warnings across agencies, geographic boundaries, and disciplines Dr. Steve Koch for continuing to inspire and fund this developing partnership Thanks to

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice Extreme speed of watershed responses Extremely short lead -time for warnings Isabelle Ruin WAS * ISer NCAR post doc – New time/space analysis – hydrometeorology