Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30 th April 2008 Revised GDP Estimates for 2008

Outline of the presentation 2 GDP and its importance Types of GDP estimation Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the Production Approach Schedule of updates Revised estimates for 2008

What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? 3 The total value of the final goods and services produced in the country during a given period, usually one year

Importance of GDP 4 To measure the performance of the economy in a given time period To compare the level of performance from year to year To assess the performance of the various sectors of the economy

Measurement Approaches 5 Production Approach Expenditure Approach Income Approach

Domestic private savings Generation and Use of National Income Rest of world Firms Households Product Markets Factor Markets GovernmentSave/Invest Factor cost Sales revenues Wages & rents Private cons. Gov’t exp. Invest. exp. Transfers Import payments Export receipts Foreign savings Taxes Gov’t savings Domestic demand for final goods Intermediate demand

Compilation & estimation of GDP by the Production approach

5/3/ MAIN AND SUB SECTORS FOR THE GDP COMPILATION AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing INDUSTRY Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Water Construction SERVICES Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Government Services Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non- profit Services

1. AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing 2. INDUSTRY 2.1 Mining and Quarrying 2.2 Manufacturing 2.3 Electricity and Water 2.4 Construction 3. SERVICES 3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication 3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 3.4 Government Services 3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services 3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation

Sources of Data 10 administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs) Surveys (Households and Specific) Censuses

Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA 2. Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production Department 3. Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD 4. Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission 5. Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector 12 Mining & Quarrying 1. Mines Department and Minerals Commission 2. Precious Minerals Marketing Company Electricity and Water 1. Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd 2. Volta River Authority 3. Ghana Water Company Ltd

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont.) 13 Manufacturing – a combination of 1. Information from the Ghana Living Standard Survey 2. VAT data 3. Financial Statements of Selected Establishments Construction 1. Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement 2. Imports 3. VAT data

Sources of Data – Services Sector 14 Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurants 1. Commodity flow 2. VAT data 3. Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS) Transport and Communication 1. Major transport companies 2. DVLA 3. Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom, Kasapa

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) 15 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services 1. Banks 2. Insurance Companies 3. VAT

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) 16 Government Services 1. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 2. Ministry of Local Government 3. Bank of Ghana 4. Controller and Accountant General’s Department

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.) 17 Community, Social & Personal Service Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) VAT data Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH) Religious Organizations Civil Society Organizations TUC

Valuation of GDP 18 GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP) GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)

GDP at Current Prices 19 GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year This is also referred to as the nominal GDP

GDP at Constant Prices 20 The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year prices Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI, PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index etc.) Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s GDP is 1993

-Projected -provisional -Revised -final TYPES OF ESTIMATES 21

Projected Estimates 22 They are made for future periods where economic activities have not taken place or no data on activities are available The estimates are made based on government policies and decisions Trend analysis and other economic models assumptions (eg. weather)

Provisional Estimates 23 Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data which cover about half of the year under consideration Provisional estimates are normally ready by September

Revised Estimates 24 Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data for most of the sub-sectors. The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were generated in April 2008)

Final Estimates 25 The estimates are designated final when data for all the subsectors for the year under consideration are used to make adjustments in the revised estimates.

REVISED ESTIMATES FOR

Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector ActivityProjected ProvisionalIntermediate Revision for Budget Revised Crops and Livestock Cocoa Forestry and Logging Fishing Total Agriculture

Real Growth in the Industry Sector ActivityProjectedProvisional Intermediate Revision for Budget Revised Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Production and Distribution of Electricity and Water Construction Total Industry

Real Growth in the Services Sector Activity Projected ProvisionalIntermediate Revision for Budget 2009 Revised Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Finance, Insurance, Real Estates and Business Services Government Services Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non-profit Services Total Services

Revised GDP estimates IndicatorProjectedProvisiona l Intermediate Revision for Budget Revised GDP at factor cost Net Indirect Taxes GDP at Purchasers’ Value

Final GDP Estimates for 2007 ( Millions of GH Cedis) 31 Economic ActivityReal GDPNominal GDP Agriculture254.04,761.6 Industry190.43,552.9 Service231.54,503.8 GDP (in purchasers’ value) ,045.8

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 ( Millions of GH Cedis) 32 Economic ActivityReal GDPNominal GDP Agriculture267.15,901.1 Industry205.84,442.0 Service252.95,740.5 GDP (in purchasers’ value) ,617.6

Major Indicators 33 INDICATORS ESTIMATES Nominal GDP (in Million GH)17,617.6 Real GDP (in Mill GH) Real GDP growth rate (%)7.3 GDP per Capita ( in GH)753.5 GDP per Capita (in US$)712.3

WAY FORWORD 34

Planned Activities 35 Rebasing of the national accounts - Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year -Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach -Compilation of more national accounts aggregates Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly Economic Bulletin

Acknowledgement The Government Statistician wishes to extend her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation of the national accounts. THANK YOU 36

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