Who forecasts waves in Portugal?  Project MOCASSIM (IH)  Operational wave model for the Portuguese coast (Pinto et al, 2004)  WaveWatch III model predictions for the Iberian western coast (Pinto et al, 2003)  Tests with SWAN coupled with WW3  Instituto de Meteorologia  24 hours forecast (no spatial resolution)  Sites de surf  Use coarse resolution U.S. model results  Outras aplicações de modelos de ondas  IST (Naval, Guedes Soares)

Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state  Wave model – Wave Watch III  Most used model for meso-scale wave modelling  Wind models  GFS (NCAR - resolution = 1ºx1º)  ARPS (MeteoGalicia – resolution = 50x50 km)

Wave Watch III - v 2.22  Wave Watch III (Tolman 1997, 1999a)  Refraction  Source terms (2 packages: WAM model or Tolman and Chalikov (1996))  Wave growth and decay due to wind  Nonlinear resonant interactions  “Whitecapping” (dissipation)  Bottom friction  Linear wave propagation  Sub-grid representation of unresolved islands (not used by us, but to be)  ANSI FORTRAN90 modular, most computing options performed at compile level, OpenMP, MPI

Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state  Model setup (Pablo Carracedo – MeteoGalicia)  North Atlantic Ocean (0.5ºx0.5º)  Iberian Peninsula (0.25ºx0.25º)  Portuguese Coast (0.05ºx0.05º)  72 hours forecast on a daily basis, updated around 7 a.m. GMT (~68 hours)  Operational mode running since May 2004

Operational application -Possibility to easily add new nestings to the North Atlantic Ocean Model -Runs without need for any manual work -Sends a log in the end of the simulation -Starts everyday at 3 a.m. -Ends normally at 4h45 a.m. -Tries until a determined hour to start -If it fails to launch, starts from best restart possible, which can only be done for 3 days. More than that it must be restarted completely – needs 3 days simulation to get reliable results

Operational application steps  Downloads and stores winds (~5MB/day)  Runs preprocessing tools (wind interpolations, nesting files, restart files, update start/end dates, etc)  Launches model  Store results and copies nesting files(~130 MB/day)  Plots results using GRADS (also possible with Mohid PostProcessor or MohidGIS)  Converts to HDF5 (results can be used by MOHID)  Publishes on the Internet

North Atlantic model

North Atlantic model - Hurricanes

Portuguese coast model

Model validation and reliability  No validation performed so far  Model results have been followed qualitatively against real-time buoy data (IH, Puertos del Estado) and other model results (MeteoGalicia, IM, Puertos del Estado). Same quality as IM forecasts.  Operational system is reliable. Failures due to:  Internet is down  Failure in wind models

Validation – Leixões buoy Model Buoy

Validation – Sines buoy Model Buoy

Products from WW3  Navigation warning system  Commercial ships  Recreational boats  Oil spill management system  Forecast for the general public (newspapers, TV, surf websites)

Future work with WW3 - 1  Validate the Portuguese Coast model (Time series comparison with automatic buoys – ask/buy data from IH?)  Improve parameterizations  Independency in terms of wind forcing using MM5-IST and downloading GFS (Extend to 120 or 144h forecasts – winds are reliable)  Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira  Improve speed (use a faster computer or use MPI version with several computers – dedicated cluster?)

Future work with WW3 - 2  Real time validation  Results publication in an operational modelling website including  non-technical version  operational storm warning system for navigation  validation against satellite images  Couple with MOHID? – It’s possible

Steps to be taken - 1  Get someone to work on this?  1 person full time  Understand waves  Find knowledge and learn from who knows  Understand wave modelling (North Atlantic swells, wind waves, Portuguese coast)  Time depending on person’s knowledge  Validate the Portuguese coast model (WW3)  Get buoy data and compare with available results (1 month)  Improve parameterization (2-3 months)

Steps to be taken - 2  Independency from MeteoGalicia winds  1 week  Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira  1 week  Improve speed (MPI)  3 days

Steps to be taken - 3  Choose a model for near shore simulations  SWAN – Simulating WAves Nearshore (open source, Pablo from MeteoGalicia has experience in implementation, used and accepted in scientific community, parallel processing)  GKSS – Wave model faster than SWAN, similar results but not very disseminated in the scientific community, possibility of cooperation  Others – STWAVE, REFDIF,…  Import knowledge and implementation technology  Pablo Carracedo (MeteoGalicia) – 2 weeks

Steps to be taken - 4  Implement SWAN (or chosen model) in strategic places  Tagus (SIMTEJO), Costa do Estoril (SANEST), Zambujeira do Mar (ICREW), Óbidos (Águas do Oeste), Ericeira (SIMTEJO), Aveiro (SIMRIA), Algarve (Águas do Algarve)  Start with most urgent site (implementation – 2 months)

Steps to be taken - 5  Technology - Couple with MOHID (Convert to HDF5)  Sediment transport (Done)  Done (Final Course Thesis)  Near shore currents (Done)  Mohid-STWave coupling iterative software (done)  Influence on turbulence and mixing  MSc/PhD (include/apply revised turbulence models)  Oil dispersion (Done)

Steps to be taken - 6  Create an application to easily implement a high resolution near shore model operationally (emergency plans)  Setup forecast system in 24 hours or less with full coupling with Wave Watch III, wind models and Mohid (EROCIPS) – 1 year  Data base  Coupling tools  Emergency plans  Useful in oil accidents – wave action on dispersion (EROCIPS)  Navigation warning system in the Tagus estuary (TRANSTEJO) or in other commercial ports in which circulation can be affected by waves (Aveiro, Leixões, Viana do Castelo, Sines, etc)  Needs high resolution wind model?  Is it profitable?