Module 12: Analysing Foreign Direct Investment in the ICT Sector Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Wednesday 11 March 2009

2 Agenda The significance of FDI in the ICT Sector a) What is FDI? b) Types of FDI (Modes of Trade) c) Relationship between FDI and ICT Sector Growth Corporate strategies a) Selected ICT firm investment strategies FDI in Egypt a) International comparisons b) Inward investment to Egypt c) Outward investment from Egypt FDI in ICT study: Progress report Groupwork exercise How to calculate proportionate subscribers for international firms

3 1. What is FDI? Foreign direct investment (FDI) may be defined as a company from one country making an investment in another country. It includes the establishment of an enterprise by a foreigner. Its definition can be extended to include investments made to acquire lasting interest in enterprises operating outside of the economy of the investor.The FDI relationship consists of a parent enterprise and a foreign affiliate which together form a multinational corporation (MNC). In order to qualify as FDI the investment must afford the parent enterprise control over its foreign affiliate. Sources UNCTAD World Investment Report OECD Investment Policy Perspectives IMF Data Mapper

4 1. Modes of Trade in Services (WTO) Source: ITU, WTO. Main mode of FDI WTO Basic Telecoms Agreement 1998: 69 countries have commitments 2008: 108 countries have commitments of which 99 in basic telecom

5 1. Investment trends in telecoms Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) in developing countries in telecommunications, Source: World Bank and PPIAF, PPI Project Database.

6 1. Investment trends in telecoms Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) in Middle East and North Africa in telecommunications, Source: World Bank and PPIAF, PPI Project Database.

7 1. Contribution of FDI to growth Example from Latin America, Source: OECD.

8 2. Mobile investment in Africa Major investors in African Mobile, early 2007 Source: ITU African Telecom Indicators 2008.

9 2. Investor strategies 1: Zain Total Zain (formerly Celtel), early 2007 Source: Ewan Sutherland “The scramble for Africa”

10 2. Investor strategies: MTN MTN, 31 December 2007 Source: Ewan Sutherland “The scramble for Africa”

11 3. International comparisons UNCTAD measures inward FDI (see World Investment Report) Total value of inward FDI into Egypt in 2007 was US$12 billion, 15% increase from Egypt’s total stock of FDI in 2007 was over US$50bn, over 40% of GDP Egypt’s compiles an international index of inward FDI performance: Egypt’s rank in 2007 was 20 th. Big improvement since 2005 when Egypt ranked only 67 th Egypt ranks 76 th worldwide in outward FDI Major areas of FDI in Egypt include oil, pharmaceuticals, telecoms and textiles

12 3. Major ICT firms in Egypt Source: BMI Egypt Telecoms Report, Q1 2009

13 3. Mobile FDI in Egypt

14 3. Outward FDI from Egypt Orascom, 1 Q 2007 Update: January 2009: Orascom acquired CellOne, Nambia 2008: 75% Orascom-owned Koryolink begins operations in DPR Korea

15 4. Update on FDI in ICT Study Deliverable 1: Definition of ICT Sector (draft sent Jan; final on 9 Feb) –Drawing upon: The latest international statistical work on the definition of the ICT sector (see Module 2) Relevant international agreements, such as the WSIS texts; Best practices worldwide on the measurement of FDI in ICTs; The realities of the situation in Egypt and its sectoral priorities; Interviews with the leading players in the collection and reporting of FDI data, including GAFI, the Egyptian Central Bank and ITIDA as well as MCIT. –This deliverable proposes a systematic approach to the measurement of the ICT sector, at the level of standard industrial classification codes, which could be applied to the measurement of FDI in the Egyptian ICT sector. –The deliverable includes: A recommended definition for harmonized data collection; A summary of international best practices; A worked example applying the definition to Egypt (e.g., which companies and which investments to include/exclude).

16 4. Proposed definition of ICT Sector Broad categoryCorresponding ISIC Rev 4 sectorISIC Rev Telecoms Hardware, manufacture, wholesale and repair Manufacture of communication equipment2630 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media2680 Wholesale of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts4652 Repair of communication equipment Telecom servicesWired telecommunications activities6110 Wireless telecommunications activities6120 Satellite telecommunications activities6130 Other telecommunications activities Computer hardware and consumer electronic, manufacture, wholesale and repair Manufacture of electronic components and boards2610 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment2620 Manufacture of consumer electronics2640 Wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software4651 Repair of computers and peripheral equipment9511 Proposed definition (Part 1)

17 4. Proposed definition of ICT Sector Broad categoryCorresponding ISIC Rev 4 sectorISIC Rev NetworkingComputer consultancy and computer facilities management activities Software development and computer services Publishing of computer games5820 Other software publishing5820 Computer programming activities IT-enabled services, business process outsourcing and call centres Data processing, hosting and related activities6311 Other information technology and computer service activities Advanced media services and digital content [Part of] Television programming and broadcasting activities6020 [Part of] Motion picture, video and television programme distribution activities E-commerce, e- transactions and services that support e-transactions Web portals6312 Proposed definition (Continued)

18 4. Update on FDI in ICT study Deliverable 2: Proposed system for data sharing on FDI in ICT (Consultant work from March-May 2009) An initial analysis has shown that several different agencies are involved in collecting FDI data but: –Several different definitions of the ICT sector are in use; –No agency has a comprehensive picture; –There are no formal mechanisms for sharing data; On the basis of interviews with the leading players, the team will make recommendations on the main features of a system for data sharing among the agencies. The aim would be to identify the main functions of different agencies involved in the process, indicate the main procedural steps to exchange information, indentify the rewuirement to create a common database and central collection system. The ultimate goal will be to create a central repository of FDI data, in which each company has a unique identifier, in order to generate different reports to meet the reporting requirements of the different agencies. The report will contain definitions and specifications for the creation of a platform but will leave the creation and delivery of the platform (including any software of IT specifications) to the agencies themselves.

19 5. Group Work Exercise How to calculate proportionate subscribers for multinational mobile service providers? On the basis on year-end 2008 mobile subscriber numbers in Egypt Based on the percentage foreign/Egyptian ownership in the thee main operators Calculate the level of foreign ownership in the Egyptian mobile sector based on a proportionate subscriber methodology Optional: Calculate level also for year-end 2007 to see change over time