CYCLOPS: Modelling the Role of Vegetation Type & Fire on Permafrost Thaw Aaron Thierry, C. Estop-Aragones, J.Fisher, I.Hartley, J. Murton, G. Phoenix,

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Presentation transcript:

CYCLOPS: Modelling the Role of Vegetation Type & Fire on Permafrost Thaw Aaron Thierry, C. Estop-Aragones, J.Fisher, I.Hartley, J. Murton, G. Phoenix, L. Street & M. Williams

~25% of NH land area 1400–1700 Gt of carbon

Jorgenson et al 2010

IPCC WG1 Fig 12.33

Photo credit: Brandi Jo Petronio

Kelly et al 2013 PNAS Increased fire frequency

Natural Resources Canada

CYCLOPS: Carbon Cycle Linkages of Permafrost Systems

BurnedUnburned

BurnedUnburned

Frost Table at Mosquito Creek Active Layer Depth (cm) Burned Unburned

Fisher et al. (in prep)

Moss Soil – organic & mineral Vegetation Solar (direct and diffuse) Solar (reflected) Latent heat flux Sensible heat flux Emitted and down-welling longwave Precipitation Transpiration Evaporation Drainage Ground heat flux Thaw/freezing Soil moisture Soil temperature Inputs: radiation, precipitation, air temperature, vapour pressure deficit [met stations] Parameters: soil and vegetation initial states, biophysical parameters [field studies, calibration] Outputs: energy balance dynamics, soil moisture, soil temperature profiles SPA: Soil Plant Atmosphere Model

Day of Year Soil Temperature (C) Soil temperature dynamics Red line = met station Red symbols = survey Black line = model simulations

SPA application at Firefox

Modelled Active Layer

What’s Next? Sensitivity to organic matter/moss cover Combine with Data on Soil C Stocks to help quantify C at Risk of Oxidation Link to soil decomposition simulations

Thanks