Arcadia Alive Operational Decision Making Richard Madders

Arcadia Alive - Philosophy Ultimately it is people that make the difference People and Performance in Parallel Everyone deserves an inspirational teacher and can grow We achieve more through collaboration In the modern economy most work is about mental effort It is our conscious and subconscious thoughts that drive behaviour Most “training” is a waste of time because it does not change behaviour We blend two disciplines; Psychology and Management to support people in delivering sustainable and measurable behavioural change “If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always got” The right support at the right time to the right people enabling them to optimise their performance Arcadia Alive is a Behavioural Change & Human Factor Consultancy

Leadership & Management Challenge

Why do Managers Make Bad Decisions? Initial Impressions Justifying past decisions Seeing what you want to see Being Influenced by Problem Framing Overconfidence Perpetuating the Status Quo …………………………….

Common Errors in our Thinking Catastrophic  jumping to worst possible conclusion Black and white  thinking in extremes all or nothing Over generalising  using words like ‘always’ and ‘never’ Fortune Telling  predicting the future instead of waiting to see what happens Mind reading  jumping to conclusions about what people are thinking Mental filtering  focusing on the negative and overlooking the positive

Common Errors in our Thinking Disqualifying the positive  discounting or twisting positives into negatives Labelling  globally putting yourself down as a failure, or useless, or … Emotional reasoning  listen to much to negative feelings rather than objective facts Personalising  taking events or someone’s behaviour too personally Demanding  using words like ‘should’, ‘must’, ‘ought’ and ‘have to’ Low frustration tolerance  telling yourself something is ‘to difficult’ or ‘unbearable’

Risk Perception Human perception of risk is not very accurate Three big factors Familiarity – if we think we know a lot about the hazard because we are often exposed to the hazard we often underestimate the degree of risk Voluntary or not – when we voluntarily take a risk, we usually underestimate the chances of being hurt Attention – how much attention a hazard brings if it hurts someone. More attention is perceived as greater risk

Reasons for Violation There’s nothing wrong with it  Do not see their infringements as wrong or dangerous Everyone does it  Explain their behaviour by saying that they are simply doing what everyone else does They really expect us to do it  Often people feel themselves in a double bind. They are told not to break the rules, but they are expected to get the job done quickly I can’t help myself  The temptation to bend or break rules is irresistible (Reason et al)

Reasons for Violation Illusion of control  Overestimating the extent to which they can govern risky situations Illusion of invulnerability  Underestimate the chances that their rule breaking will lead to bad outcomes Illusion of superiority  Believe themselves to be more skilled than others  Do not regard their tendencies to violate as being worse than others (Reason et al)

Dan A Video

Personal Risk Management Major Minor Near Miss Rushing Frustration Fatigue Complacency Eyes Not on Task Mind Not on Task Line of Fire Balance, Traction, Grip Major Minor Near Miss STATESERRORSLESS RISKMORE RISK (Causes)(Which causes)(To Become) (Gary Higbee)

Risk Management - Business Objective Primary Business Objective of a Train Care Depot: Deliver a safe reliable trains  Meeting daily plan  Meeting Level 4 maintenance plan

#Hazard to achieving business objective Likely hoodConsequenceRisk Index 1 Instability in the work plan Changing Priorities Multiple source of demand Lack of single plan Understanding of limitations and constraints Maintenance Management System Available man hours Disruption to flow of the task Parts availability Skill Levels (MTU team)5525

#Hazard to achieving business objective Likely hoodConsequenceRisk Index 11 Shunting Management Time Non-Productive Activity Poor Support Contracts Colleagues Admin support Physical Space on the depot (Service Roads & Welfare Facilities) Units arriving late Plant Failure (Wheel Lathe)3515

What will help? Do you understand what combination of critical success factors will determine whether your decision leads to a successful outcome? Do you know what metrics need to be met to ensure success?

What will help? Studies of primitive peoples reinforce the idea that social interactions are central to how humans gather information and make decisions This tendency evolved in humans because pooling ideas from many different people gave you an advantage: You got a “wisdom of the crowd” take on things That was better than individual judgement

What will help? Test your decisions – second and third order effects Teach your people to think and argue critically Teach them to be assertive Encourage social networking - beware the ‘Echo Chamber’ Teach and encourage collaboration - BS11000 Improve Knowledge Management – especially tacit

Summary Decisions don’t happen in a vacuum The best ones rarely come from deep pondering in isolation They happen when people learn from and draw on the experience of others In this process, success depends upon:  Quality of social exploration  Ensure your information and sources of ideas are diverse and independent (Alex Pentland)

Captain Video

Thank You