Quarterly National Accounts in IRAN

Objectives of Presentation Quarterly national accounts in Iran Scope and coverage of QNA, Data sources for compiling QNA, Benchmarking techniques in use, Seasonal adjustment methods used, Price and volume measures, Revision policy and dissemination practices. 2

Quarterly National Accounts in Iran In 2002, the preliminary steps for preparing Quarterly National Accounts were taken by the Statistical Center of Iran(SCI) and QNA was calculated within the framework of a research project conducted for the period of In 2008, previous research has been revised on the basis of “Quarterly National Accounts Manual, IMF, 2001) particularly in the field of coverage level of details and supplementary indicators and the quarterly national accounts were calculated by the SCI for several years after In 2012, for the first time, a Quarterly Accounts Group was established in the Statistical Center of Iran. This Group has been continuously engaged in preparing and publishing Quarterly National Accounts. 3

Scope and Coverage of QNA In order to calculate quarterly estimates of GDP we are using two following approaches (production and expenditure): 1. Value added and GDP in current and constant prices by industry 2. Expenditures of the GDP in current and constant prices To estimate the value added and GDP by industry, in the first step, the activities in the alphabetical ISIC rev3.1 (12 activities) were checked and by considering available data sources and usual methods in the annual national accounts, indicators and related quantities have been identified. Then, based on the bottom- up method, coverage level of the 12 activities were determined and broken down to computable components. Finally 42 industries were used in QNA calculation of GDP. In each industry, suitable indicators and quantities, have been used to estimate quarterly output based on the Denton Method and then the value added is calculated assuming a fixed equal ratio between the intermediate consumption and output. Calculation method in GDP by expenditure is similar to estimations in the production approach. 4

dissemination level Estimation levelRow Agriculture, hunting, forestry Farming and horticulture 1 Animal husbandry forestry Fishing 2 Mining and quarrying Oil and gas quarrying 3 Mining Manufacturing 4 Electricity, gas and water supply Electricity supply 5 Gas distribution Water supply Construction 6 Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants Wholesale and retail trade 7 Hotels Restaurants Transport, storage and communications Transport via railways 8 Other land transports Transport via pipelines Water transport Air transport Support Transport Post and telecommunications The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for GDP by Industry 5

dissemination level Estimation levelRow Financial intermediation Bank 9 Other Financial intermediation Insurance Real estate, renting and business activities Real estate activities with own property 10 Real estate activities with leased property Non- residential property activities Real estate activities on a fee or contract basis renting and business activities Public administration and defense; compulsory social security, Education, Health and social work Public administration 11 Defense Compulsory social security activities Primary education Secondary education Higher education Other education Human health activities Veterinary activities Social work activities Other community, social and personal service activities Recreational, cultural and sporting activities 12 Religious and political Other service activities The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for GDP by Industry 6

dissemination level Estimation levelRow Private final consumption expenditure Household final consumption expenditure 1 final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISHs) General government consumption expenditure Government consumption expenditures 2 Gross fixed capital formation on construction 3 Gross fixed capital formation on Machinery and equipment 4 Gross fixed capital formation on other assets Export of goods and services Export of oil 5 Non-oil exports Export of services import of goods and services import of goods import of services Changes in inventories and data discriminations 6 The Estimation and Dissemination Levels of Quarterly Quantities for GDP by Expenditure 7

Data Sources for Compiling QNA Indicators for GDP by industry activityData sources/indicators Agriculture, hunting, forestry Agricultural production index (based on Statistical Survey on farm gate Prices of Products and Costs of Agriculture Services in Rural Areas); Information from annual accounts; Government budget PPI components Fishing Value / size of catches PPI components Mining and quarrying Registered data received from Oil Ministry ( including export, Refinery feedstock and gas extraction); Mineral production index (based on Statistical Survey on Production Price and Amount of Mineral Activity) Manufacturing Industrial production index ( based on Statistical Survey on Production Price and Amount of Industrial Activity) Electricity, gas and water supply Registered data received from organizations (including quantity / value of sales; Gas and condensate export PPI /CPI components 8

Data Sources for Compiling QNA Indicators for GDP by industry activityData sources/indicators Construction Private sector investment in construction ; Government budget; The number of construction permits issued PPI components Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey; Quarterly output from agriculture, fishing, mining and industrial activities; Nights spent in hotels PPI /CPI components Transport, storage and communications Number of passengers transported; volume of goods transported; volume/cost of oil and Petroleum products transported; quantity /cost of parcel; Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey PPI components 9

Data Sources for Compiling QNA Indicators for GDP by industry activityData sources/indicators Financial intermediation Value of loans/deposits; Number /value of traded shares; Number of insurance; produced premium by classes PPI components Real estate, renting and business activities Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey; Real estate transactions PPI components Public administration and defense; compulsory social security, Education, Health and social work Government budget; Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey PPI components Other community, social and personal service activities Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey PPI components 10

Indicators for GDP by Type of Expenditure Description Main Indirect Sources Private final consumption expenditure Iranian Urban and Rural Household Income and Expenditure Survey General government consumption expenditure Data from government accounts fixed capital formation Activities results from production approach; The value of imported capital goods Exports and imports of goods and services Customs (volume and unit values) 11

Benchmarking Techniques According to IMF 2001 manual, we are using Denton Benchmarking Technique to calculate quarterly estimates,. Also in order to increase the speed and accuracy of computing activities, the SCI has tried to apply the methods, indexes, patterns, software, results and documentations as a unified package. In addition, we have developed a special software in order to develop the data in Excel. This helps to modify and improve methods for estimating each activity or expenditure components, in an easy and independent manner. 12

Seasonal Adjustment Methods In order to do seasonal adjustments on time series, a separate study has been conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. We used “TRAMO/SEATS (Bank of Spain) ” method and “Demetra+” software to calculate seasonal adjustments, but the results have not been published by the SCI yet due to the fact that we were not sure about the accuracy of results and method. We hope that this workshop could help us to improve our calculation methods. 13

Price and Volume Measures Index of agricultural production Source: Statistical Survey on farm gate Prices of Products and Costs of Agriculture Services in Rural Region. Interval: seasonal Coverage level: More than 1500 villages of the country in different provinces. Price and quantity of production 45 farming products, 34 horticultural products, 21 animal husbandry products. Calculation method: chain-linking Estimation level: 1-farming 2- horticulture 3- animal husbandry 14

Price and volume measures Index of Industrial production Source: Statistical Survey on Producer Price and Amount of Industrial Activities. Interval: Seasonal Coverage level : 1879 industrial establishment Calculation method: chain-linking Estimation level: Two digits ISIC 15

Price and Volume measures Index of mineral production Source Statistical Survey on Producer Price and Amount of Mineral Activities. Interval: Seasonal Coverage level : About 320 operating mines Calculation method: chain-linking Estimation level : Two digits ISIC 16

Revision Policy and Dissemination Practices Initial estimate: 2 to 3 months after the end of the quarter Revised estimate: 5 to 6 months after the end of the quarter It should be mentioned that all QNA estimates by the SCI are revised after finalization of annual national accounts. 17

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