NC STATE UNIVERSITY Matthew D. Parker North Carolina State Univ. Raleigh, NC CSTAR workshop: High-shear, low-CAPE (“HSLC”) tornadoes/sig. severe introduction.

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Presentation transcript:

NC STATE UNIVERSITY Matthew D. Parker North Carolina State Univ. Raleigh, NC CSTAR workshop: High-shear, low-CAPE (“HSLC”) tornadoes/sig. severe introduction tornadoes/sig. severe introduction 16 November 2012

individual report influence km radius Mean Tornado Environment: ML CAPE & 0-6 km Shear : 3277 tornado reports | 344 tornado days Max MLCAPE Over Plains Lower MLCAPE and Stronger Shear courtesy: Steve Weiss ML CAPE (J/kg, color fill), 0-6 km Shear (kt, blue barbs) (year= , month=ALL)

ML CAPE ≥ 2000 J kg -1 | 0-6 km Shear ≥ 35 kt | ML CIN ≥ J kg -1 Integrated “environment hours” High CAPE; Strong Shear; Moderate CIN Integrated “environment hours” High CAPE; High Shear; Moderate CIN Max 240 hr or 60 hr/yr courtesy: Steve Weiss

ML CAPE ≤ 1000 J kg -1 | 0-6 km Shear ≥ 35 kt | 0-1 km Shear ≥ 20 kt ML LCL ≤ 1000 m | ML CIN ≥ J kg -1 Integrated “environment hours” Low CAPE; High Shear; Low LCL; Mod. CIN Max 480 hr or 120 hr/yr courtesy: Steve Weiss

High CAPE | Strong Shear Low CAPE | Strong Shear 26% of F2+ tornadoes local axis hr/year 22% of F2+ tornadoes widespread hr/year 48% of all F2+ tornadoes courtesy: Steve Weiss

Basic parameters: Monthly conference calls for planning, O2R/R2O, etc.Monthly conference calls for planning, O2R/R2O, etc. By consensus, HSLC is considered to be: 0-6 km shear > 35 kts and SBCAPE 35 kts and SBCAPE < 500 J.kg By consensus, landfalling TC cases are omittedBy consensus, landfalling TC cases are omitted Initial “training dataset” of regional cases identified by NWS collaboratorsInitial “training dataset” of regional cases identified by NWS collaborators  Baseline for radar and parameter studies  Best events singled out for detailed NWS case studies Additional data from SPC to supplement our workAdditional data from SPC to supplement our work  Mesoanalysis data for detailed case studies (delivered online for use in Google Earth)  Relational database for all reports (not just the collaborator-identified cases)

Specific aims (end products): Quantification of significant differences in ingredients for events vs. nulls; a new composite parameter idealized for HSLC (Sherburn lead)Quantification of significant differences in ingredients for events vs. nulls; a new composite parameter idealized for HSLC (Sherburn lead) Statistical assessment of radar signatures (convective mode, trackable mesovortices, other signatures like broken-S) associated with events vs. nulls (Davis lead)Statistical assessment of radar signatures (convective mode, trackable mesovortices, other signatures like broken-S) associated with events vs. nulls (Davis lead) Stats for groupings of interest: day vs. night, summer vs. winter, near vs. far from radar, S.E. U.S. vs. other regions, etc. (both projects)Stats for groupings of interest: day vs. night, summer vs. winter, near vs. far from radar, S.E. U.S. vs. other regions, etc. (both projects) A population of thorough case studies (events and nulls) whose environments and radar signatures will be compared to (and motivate) the longitudinal environmental and radar statistics (Moore, Lane, Coleman team leaders)A population of thorough case studies (events and nulls) whose environments and radar signatures will be compared to (and motivate) the longitudinal environmental and radar statistics (Moore, Lane, Coleman team leaders)