July 22, 2003

Model Objectives Forecast ADT on the Rural State Highway System Autos & Trucks Autos & Trucks Arterial System Arterial System Complement, But Not Compete With, 9 MPO Models Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within. Forecast traffic to, from and thru MPOs, but not within.

Why Practice? Traffic forecasts affect every aspect of a State DOT’s core business activities: planning & finance, programming, design, construction & maintenance planning & finance, programming, design, construction & maintenance A useful, cost-effective tool system, corridor, project level data for evaluating needs & alternatives system, corridor, project level data for evaluating needs & alternatives reliable & timely forecasts reliable & timely forecasts consistent methodology consistent methodology

Dear Office of Homeland Security: OK, I have my duck taped. Now how about a statewide model? Tom

Why Not? Urban Models Federal mandate, 40+ years R&D Predictable travel behavior, specialized tools. Attractive career paths for modelers. Statewide Models No federal mandate, little R&D or data Travel behavior less predictable, modeling tools less useful. Limited career paths for DOT modelers.

Available Demographic Data 1990 & 2000 Census Geography & Data Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) 1997 Economic Census Woods & Poole Economic, Demographic Data Claritas Demographic & Lifestyle Data D&B Employment Data Regional Demographic Data

Available Network Data National Highway Planning Network (NHPN) NORTAD 1998 Database 2000 National Transportation Atlas Database (NTAD) FHWA’s National HPMS Data GDT National Traffic Count Data KyTC Highway Information System (HIS)

Available Travel Data 1990, 2000 CTPP American Travel Survey (ATS), National Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) Reebie Commodity Flow Data Commodity Flow Survey Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey MPO Trip Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice & External Survey Data

Statewide Travel Models Mark Byram  Ohio Vince Bernardin & Steve Smith  Indiana Paul Hershkowitz  Missouri, Michigan Tom Cooney  Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, Mississippi

Statewide Travel Models Mark Byram  Ohio Vince Bernardin & Steve Smith  Indiana Paul Hershkowitz  Missouri, Michigan Tom Cooney  Kentucky, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, Mississippi

Key Features Macro-Micro Modeling Framework Preservation of linkages to KYTC HIS Use of ATS, NPTS & NHTS For Travel Market Segmentation Activity Based Zone Structure Claritas Lifestyle Clusters For Trip Household Trip Generation Reebie Data for Heavy Truck Flows

Mess

Route System:

Internal Zones:

Eliminating false intersections along limited-access facilities:

Fixing milepost gaps: M.P – M.P M.P – M.P

Adding missing links:

External Network:

External Zones:

Passenger Model Modes Network and zone systems Trip generation Trip distribution Mode choice Assignment

Freight Model Modes Network and zone systems Trip generation Trip distribution Mode choice Assignment

Calibration & Validation FHWA’s “Calibrating and Adjustment of System Planning Models” (NCHRP 365) TMIP “Model Validation and Reasonableness Checking Manual”

Model Management Systems Input Data Modeling Procedures Output Data

Task #Milestone/ActivityCompletion Date Task 1.0Draft Specifications / Stakeholder WorkshopSummer 2003 Final Model SpecificationsSummer 2003 Task 2.0Data Compilation / AcquisitionFall 2003 Forecast Year Model InputsWinter 2003 Freight ForecastsWinter 2004 Task 3.0Model Development, Validation, and CalibrationSpring 2004 Submit Draft Report and Model FilesSpring 2004 Task 4.0Develop Model Application and InterfaceSummer 2004 Model TrainingSummer 2004 Final Report and DeliverablesSummer 2004

KYSTM Brainstorming Session Priority Topics Goal Statement? Model users, uses and outputs Who should use info from model? Who should use info from model? What information do they want/need? What information do they want/need? How should they get the information? How should they get the information? Data resources?

KYSTM Brainstorming Session Priority Topics Passenger modeling procedures Freight modeling procedures Calibration/Validation criteria, standards Data/Model management procedures