ASEAN: Evolution, Challenges and Prospects Amitav Acharya UNESCO Chair in Transnational Challenges and Governance; and Chair of the ASEAN Studies Center School of International Service American University

Three Parts ASEAN’s Origin and Evolution ASEAN’s Achievements and Limitations ASEAN’s Future Prospects

ASEAN’s Origins and Evolution Established 1967. Reasons for creation: No regional group in Southeast Asia before Conflict-resolution: Indonesia-Malaysia conflict called Konfrontasi. Communist rebellions (backed by China and USSR) against pro-Western governments in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Philippines Superpower intervention during the Cold War- Indochina Economic Nationalism and underdevelopment

ASEAN Members 1967: Five. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Singapore 1984: Brunei 1995: Vietnam 1997: Myanmar and Laos 1999: Cambodia (ASEAN Ten) 2011: East Timor (?)

Characterstics of Membership Diverse cultures: Muslim, Buddhist, Christian, Confucian Divergent colonial history: British (Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar) Dutch (Indonesia) French (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos) Spanish/American (Philippines) Portugese (East Timor) Different political systems: Military Myanmar), communist (Vietnam, Laos), soft-authoritarian (Malaysia and Singapore), stable democracy (Indonesia), unstable democracy (Thailand and Philippines) parliamentary democracy, presidential democracy

‘ASEAN Way’ Refers to the belief that to the extent possible, regional interactions among ASEAN members and between ASEAN and outside countries should be informal, non-legalistic, consensus-based and inclusive. Relative informality of interactions Non-legalistic cooperation Consensus-based decision-making Inclusivity This approach is changing now, in the face of criticism and limitations, especially after the 1997 economic crisis

Achievements No major conflict among members since founding Inclusive membership: Vietnam joining in 1995 key development Key role in the resolution of Cambodia conflict Engaging all the major powers of the world – China, US, Japan, India, Russia, EU) through dialogue and cooperation

Mixed Record Economic Cooperation: intra-ASEAN trade still around 25% of total trade, mechanisms for financial crisis untested Persisting Intra-ASEAN Conflicts: Thailand-Cambodia, Singapore-Malaysia, Maritime disputes South China Sea Dispute: China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan Transnational Threats: Environmental degradation, Deforestation and haze problem, Piracy, Terrorism, Drug trafficking, People Smuggling, Natural disasters

Recent Developments Community-Building (Bali Concord II-2003) ASEAN Economic Community (Free Trade and customs Union, investment area) ASEAN Political-Security Community (Conflict resolution, Cooperation against common challenges such as terrorism, piracy, disaster management, etc) ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (people’s ASEAN, caring and sharing ASEAN) ASEAN Charter (2008)-legal personality, consolidation of treaties and agreements, compliance enforcement East Asian Summit (2005). New reigonal architecture; Now includes US and Russia

Challenges for the Future Rise of China and India, a multipolar world Increasing burden: scope of issues, and membership, and partnerships Sovereignty and non-Interference in an age of globalization and transnational challenges Compliance with new rules and the Charter: National interest version regional interest ASEAN’s unity and cohesion - Can ASEAN’s centrality in Asian regional architecture be assured for next 20 years? -ASEAN 2030: “Wise counsel of Asia or marginalized relic of the past”