Wisdom from the 1920s and the 1960s Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. ….H. G. Wells Education is the slowest form of learning. ….Tony Schwartz The medium is the message. ….Marshall McLuhan William H. Graves SVP, Academic Strategy, Ellucian Board of Governors, Antioch University Retired Professor, UNC-Chapel Hill Student Success Global Success Institutional Success National Success 29-Apr-15 The cloud is the message. IMSellucian Humanity’s Challenge to Education Scale Up and Sustain Social, Environmental, Economic, and Educational Justice Educational Attainment ≈ Educational Justice

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Education vs. Catastrophe Global / Local Puzzle  Think globally, act locally, but …  All things are interconnected!  Catastrophe has the lead! Education is key! Credentialing is a common good for all of its investors.

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Policy Perspectives Scale up educational attainment. Improve annual credentialing rates. Make credentialing affordable to all beneficiaries. Policy Perspectives The Attainment Challenge Scale up the proportion of adults with postsecondary credentials. Barriers to Scaling Up  The education pipeline is leaky.  Economic demographics imply that a growing percentage of low-income students will require needs-tested financial aid.  The growing need for financial aid will make credentialing unaffordable to more students, governments, and educational institutions.  There is no evidence that local successes will add up to global success! Policy Conclusion Education is too important to leave to educators.

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Unit Costs Matter!  SHEEO Fact: National average for inflation-adjusted per- student FTE state subsidies is hovering near 30-year lows.  NCHEMS Projection: By 2013, every state will suffer a structural revenue shortfall arrived a few years ago!  Delta Cost Project: Assuming current trends for per-student E&R expenses in constant dollars, the future is disturbing! Affordability will continue to suffer! Unit Costs Matter! Tuition Other Tuition Other Public Higher Education Per-Student E&R Costs Private Higher Education Per-Student E&R Costs Tuition Other Tuition Other

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Economic Governance Issues  If credentialing at scale is a common good, then why do:  Education providers find government funding to be inadequate, unreliable, and intrusive?  Governments find higher education unaccountable and its “credit-hours- attempted” revenue model costly and wasteful?  Needy students and families find higher education unaffordable, inflexible, inaccessible, and “slow?”  Think like 2009 Economics Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom!  Don’t leave the economic governance of a common good to governments or other powerful interests!  Be guided by Ostrom-style open economic governance models that are so far avoiding a tragedy of the commons: Internet Society, World Wide Web Consortium, Wikipedia,...  Possible solution: Create a global economic governance cooperative, the Education Leadership Commons, to rebalance economic rights and responsibilities among education providers and their external investors. Economic Governance Issues

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Education Leadership Commons ELC Economic Beneficiaries of the Credentialing Marketplace Economic Lever = Needs-Tested, Earned Grants? Economic Governance for the Credentialing Marketplace Global nonprofit nongovernmental organization Open economic governance processes

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Educational Justice  All people are born equal – and born to learn!  Educational justice: scale up the needs-tested right to earn a credential affordable to all invested parties.  ELC: an economic compact with three-way leverage.  From birth, estimate the value of needs-tested aid to a student, who will eventually earn that aid by participating in periodic, independent, age-appropriate core learning evaluations (OECD).  Education providers accepting students’ earned aid must account in peer groupings for credentialing productivity goals.  In return for funding needy students, governments would have rights to longitudinal data for research – data follow the student. Educational Justice

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Accelerating exponentially into the cloud Forces of Change Technology Acceleration Demo-graphics & Psycho-graphics Globalization Public Policy We are the cloud! We are increasingly first-generation underprepared financially needy Scale Up Educational Justice & Attainment Increase the proportion of credentialed adults. Increase annual credentialing rates. Improve per-credential affordability to all parties. Account independently for core learning. IT-Enabled External Sourcing / Partnering Out-sourcingOpen-sourcing In-sourcingOff-shoring Work-flowingIn-forming Supply-chainingMobile-ing Globalization = Innovation = Productivity

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian IT-Enabled Strategies External Sourcing/Partnering Redesign Strategy Flex Program Redesign Strategy Common Core Redesign Strategy Maximum Leverage from Technology Increase attainment proportions. Increase credential completion rates. Improve per-degree production costs. Improve reporting and analytics.

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Common Core Redesign  National Center for Academic Transformation pioneered course redesign in the ‘90s.  In order of enrollments, the top courses account for enrollments totaling 40% at 4-year schools and 50% at 2-year schools.  These high-enrollment courses consume 20% to 25% of annual operating costs (because direct instructional costs are around 50%).  These courses are common (core) to all campuses.  Common exams, including nationally normative learning evaluations, are possible across all course sections.  Can these courses be redesigned using IT, both to measurably improve learning outcomes and to reduce per-enrollment costs? Common Core Redesign

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Core Redesign Models Common Core Redesign Models Supplemental  U New Mexico (psychology)  U Colorado (astronomy) Replacement  Penn State (statistics)  Tallahassee CC (writing) Emporium  Virginia Tech (linear algebra)  U Alabama (pre-calculus) Online  Rio Salado CC (basic math)  U So. Mississippi (world lit) Buffet  Ohio State (statistics)  Florida Gulf Coast U (arts) Linked Workshop  Austin Peay State (math)  Ferris State

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Core Redesign Results  Actual: Pew Trust-funded pilot involved 30 institutions, each using IT and principles of active learning to redesign a large-enrollment course. All accounted for equal or improved learning results, and reported per-enrollment cost offsets averaging 40%.  Potential: Do the math!!! A systemic effort to redesign the top highest enrollment courses could offset 8%-10% of annual operating costs. Common Core Redesign Results

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Faculty Role Faculty teams are responsible for program redesign Learning as an Expedition Instructor-Facilitated Active Leaning Organize Learning Resources Syllabus course packs faculty expertise video lectures leaningware OER Guide Self Learning special projects papers labs tests tutor others teach classes Design & Guide Active & Social Learning flipped classrooms individualized help team projects internships field trips MOOCs

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Culture and Productivity Credentialing Productivity Information Productivity Evidence-Driven Executive Leadership Individual Productivity High-Performing Digital Utility Satisfaction vs. Costs People  Technology  Metrics  Processes Culture of “Satisficing” Applications IT mgmt. & leadership Culture of Evidence Assessment Performance consulting Performance reporting / analytics Culture of Performance Academic / admin process redesign Enrollment mgmt. outsourcing IR mgmt. outsourcing Grant mgmt. outsourcing External Sourcing / Partnering Strategies

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Return on IT Investment ROI = Accountability + Accessibility Return on IT Investment Expense Accountability Affordable Accessibility Learning AccountabilityProgram Accountability Flexible AccessibilityScalable Accessibility Scale Down Per-Credential Costs Scale Up Affordability of Student Success Increase Credentialing Productivity

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian The Productivity Question Is Yours a Culture of Productivity? A High Productivity Institution? Systemic Credentialing Productivity? Random Acts of Productivity? Progress requires order where there is change & change where there is order. … Alfred North Whitehead

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian EPS Educational Positioning System Education’s External Investors Education Providers, Credentialers Education Leadership Commons ELC ≈ EPS GPS-like technology for credentialing Interoperable credentialing marketplace IT and data interoperability Trust – security, authenticity, metrics students families donors governments employers suppliers institutions evaluators professions Ostrom-like open cooperative Reduce frictions and costs to expand the credentianling market! (Nobel Laureates Ronald Coase and Elinor Ostrom)

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Profiles in Productivity Tennessee Board of Regents Online Degree Program  Over thirty 2- and 4-year institutions partnered to increase the tertiary credential-holding proportion of the state’s workforce.  Enabled working adults to complete previous work  Increased college-going rate  Developed universal AA curriculum and many credentialing programs – all in online flex format  Current net new “profitable “enrollments of at least 16,000  Inter-institution credit- and revenue-sharing in place  Externally sourced planning, development, and delivery support  Unified single ERP and single LMS several years ago Antioch University  Ph.D in Leadership and change  Course-less program  Quarterly “residencies” of a few days around the nation  Online high-touch individualized mentoring continuously  External mentors for quality assurance and applied learning  Coursera/Antioch MOOC partnership  Antioch credit for Duke and Penn Coursera MOOCs.  All parties benefit academically and financially.

Title Slide Education vs. Catastrophe Policy Perspectives Unit Costs Matter! Economic Governance Issues ELC Educational Justice Forces of Change IT-Enabled Strategies Common Core Redesign Core Redesign Models Core Redesign Results Faculty Role Culture and Productivity Return on IT Investment The Productivity Question EPS Profiles in Productivity Quotations ellucian Mixing and Matching Flex Program Strategy Redesign programs/services for flexibility. –Maximize “high tech,” both academic & administrative. More self-service – time shifted (asynchronous) learning & other services Less contact-hour instruction & other scheduled services –Individualize “high touch” expert help to retain and graduate students. –Increase classroom & office capacity of the existing plant. –Reduce dependency on the classroom & semester models. Course Redesign Strategy Redesign large courses for improved learning and costs. –Focus on the course, not its course sections. –Emphasize active learning & mastery feed-back testing. –Use common tests. –Document learning differences via assessment. –Realign faculty tasks without increasing faculty labor to: Offload some functions to software & assistants. Optimize faculty expertise & interventions with students. Increase student/instructor ratio Reduce per-student costs.