Economics Team September 17, 2009
US consumers have decreased Debt Consumer Sentiment has increased Initial unemployment has decreased 26,000 There are some projections that treasury might actually make money off the TARP program This Week’s Call
Market: –Up sharply for the week –Best sectors: oil and gas –Utilities have been declining –Basic Materials (Non Ferrous Metals) and Technology (mainly computer hardware and semiconductors) have been doing well –Finance has been catching up in the market –Health Care has been lagging –Industrials and Consumer Goods and services are generally around the S&P (Some a little higher) This Week’s Call
Economic News: –Retail Sales: Increased From July by 2.7% –PPI: +1.7% seasonally adjusted –CPI : increased by.4% –Capacity Utilization: 69.6% (expected to be 69.0%) –Housing and employment numbers come out on Thursday –Exports have picked up 1% –Business investment has picked up 1% –GDP has increased –Opinion: the economy is better in the past 2 quarters, though personal consumption lags it wont lag that much This Week’s Call
The rally happened to the extreme that it did since the stock prices were so low in the first place Continue in Recovery –Average of all early revivals have been 20 months –We are 6 months in therefore there will be at least another year in early revival –Negative inflation is about a year away The No Trade War between the US and China will not spin out of control it is more of a political move –The countries are too dependent upon each other This Week’s Call
Adjusted GDP – Percent Change
Initial Unemployment Hours – Percent Change
CPI – Percent Change
Weekly Hours Worked – Percent Change
Housing Starts – Percent Change
Energy Energy Equipment & Servuces Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Materials Chemicals Construction Materials Containers & Packaging Metals & Mining Paper & Forest Products Capital Goods Aero Space & Defense Building Products Construction & Engineering Electrical Equipment Industrial Conglomera Machinery Trading Companies & Distributors Commercial& Professional Services Commercial Services&Supplies Professional Services Transportation Air Freight &Logistics Airlines Marine Road&Rail Transportation Infrastructure Automobiles & Components Auto Components Automobiles Consumer Durables & Apparel Household Durables Leisure Equipment & Products Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods Consumer Services Hotels Restuarants & Leisure Diversified Consumer Services Media Retailing Distributors Internet & Catalog Retail Multiline Retail Specialty Retail Food& Staples Retailing Food Beverage & Tobacco Beverages Food Products Tobacco Household & Personal Products Household Products Personal Products Industry Cut Down: Health Care Equipment & Service Health Care Equipment & Supplies Health Care Providers & Services Health Care Technology Pharma. Biotech & Life Sciences Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals Life Sciences Tools & Services Banks Commercial Banks Thrifts& Mortgage Finance Diversified Financials Diversified Financial Services Consumer Finance Capital Markets Insurance Real Estate Real Estate Investment Trusts Real Estate Management & Development Software &Services Internet Software & Services IT Services Software Technology Hardware & Equipment Communications Equipment Computers & Peripherals Electronic Equip.,Instr. & Compo Office Electronics Semiconductors& Semi Equipment Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Utilities Electric Utilities Gas Utilities Multi-Utlilities Water-Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Eliminated