TRANSITION, TRANSFORMATION, AND DEMOCRATISATION IN THE MENA REGION 15th October, 2014 – CESEDEN, Madrid Professor Christian W Haerpfer President of World Values Survey Association-WVSA First Chair of Politics Department of Politics and International Relations University of Aberdeen Director of ArabTrans ‘Political and Social Transformations in the Arab World’ research program

First Wave: American and French Revolutions in 18 th century until 1930 Second Wave: Post Second World War 1945 – 1967 Third Wave: 1968 – 2009 Southern Europe, Post-Communist Europe and Post-Soviet Eurasia Forth Wave: * MENA Region & Asia Waves of Democratisation

Commencement: Youth Revolution of May 1968 First sub-wave: Portugal, Spain, Greece in early 1970’s Democratization in post-communist Europe: 1989 – years of political transformation Third Wave of Democratisation

November 1989: Start of democratization in Central and South-East Europe January 1992: Beginning of democratization in Eastern Europe and collapse of Soviet Union Third Wave of Democratisation

December, 2010: Beginning of protests in Tunisia & Algeria : Protests and uprisings in Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Yemen; civil war & disorder in Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Iraq 2014: Authoritarian regimes overthrown in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt & Yemen; governmental changes introduced in Jordan, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Morocco; on- going changes in most of MENA countries Forth Wave of Democratisation

Waves of Democratization

Global Distribution of Political Regimes,

Distribution of Political Regimes in MENA,

Democracy in World Regions

Stage 1: Decline of Ancient Regime Stagnation and decline between 2000 and 2010 Stages of Democratisation

Stage 2: Liberalisation of Ancient Regime Perestroika and Glasnost in Soviet Union 1985 – 1991 Attempts of liberalisation in Jordan, Morocco Stages of Democratisation

Stage 3: Regime Transition Non-violent transition in Tunisia, Egypt Violent transition in Iraq, Syria, Libya Stages of Democratisation

Stage 4: Creation / Birth of new political regime, mostly a ‘new democracy’ Triple transition of society, economy and politics Stages of Democratisation

Stage 5: Consolidation of new and partial democracy towards a full and complete democracy Stages of Democratisation

Path 1: From new democracy towards consolidated democracy Tunisia Dynamics of Democratisation

Path 2: From new democracy towards ‘Electoral Democracy’ Jordan, Algeria, Morocco Dynamics of Democratisation

Path 3: From new democracy via Electoral Democracy towards ‘Competitive Autocracy’ Egypt Dynamics of Democratisation

Path 4: From new democracy via Competitive Autocracy towards ‘Full Autocracy’ ??? Dynamics of Democratisation

Path 1: New democracy towards consolidated democracy Path 2: New democracy towards electoral democracy Path 3: New democracy towards competitive autocracy Path 4: From new democracy towards full autocracy Dynamics of Democratisation

Level 1: consolidated democracy – Tunisia Level 2: electoral democracy – Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Iraq, Jordan Level 3: competitive autocracy – Egypt Level 4: full autocracy – Saudi Arabia Levels of Democratisation

Democratization = open process of political transformation, not an inevitable and necessary transition towards democracy Democratization can lead to democracy but also to autocracy and hybrid political regimes Transformation and Democratisation

Transition = Stage 3 of Democratization Regime from non-democratic regime to democratic regime Transition is not automatic historical process towards democracy and free market economy Transition is not the ‘end of history’ (F. Fukuyama) Transition is not blind and automatic process towards full democracy Transition = Stage 3 of Transformation within the process of Democratization Transition and Democratisation

Three Processes of Transformation on Three levels Field of Transformation Political RegimeSocial SystemCivil Society Process of Transformation Democratisation Social modernisation Development of civil society Level of Transformation Political SystemSocial SystemCivic System a. Macro-level Political institutions and parties Social institutions and factors Civic institutions (Media, Trades Unions, Churches) b. Meso-level Political activities Social activities Forms of public participation, NGOs c. Micro-level Citizens and voters Social actors and households, families Social networks

Countries in open-ended democratization processes: Tunisia Egypt Libya Syria Future of Democracy

Elections in Tunisia 2011

Importance of Politics for personal life (Percentage ‘Very Important’ & ‘Important; source: WVS-6) #Country% 1Egypt75% 2Bahrain70% 3Qatar67% 4Kuwait59% 5Libya57% 6Palestine50% 7Lebanon47% 8Yemen44% 9Jordan40% 10Iraq42% 11Tunisia40% 12Algeria39% 13Morocco16% TOTALMENA AVERAGE51%

Interest in Politics (Percentage ‘Very interested’ & ‘Interested’; source: WVS-6) #Country% 1Egypt74% 2Qatar69% 3Bahrain65% 4Kuwait61% 5Palestine60% 6Libya59% 7Lebanon54% 8Yemen49% 9Iraq47% 10Tunisia42% 11Jordan39% 12Algeria36% 13Morocco15% TOTALMENA AVERAGE52%

#Country Importance of democracy How democratically is country today 1Jordan8,296,69 2Algeria8,125,79 3Lebanon8,005,76 4Yemen8,495,08 5Iraq7,954,58 6Egypt8,954,58 7Palestine7,784,46 8Libya8,134,31 9Morocco8,494,29 10Tunisia8,463,92 11Bahrain7,22N/A 12Kuwait8,17N/A 13Qatar8,33N/A MENA AVERAGE 8,194,90 Assessments of Democracy (MEANS according to scale from 1 to 10 where “1” is the lowest mark and “10” – the highest; source: WVS-6)

Thank you for your attention! Christian W Haerpfer