Russia’s Arctic Development Plan Strategy to 2020 Caitlyn Antrim Rule of Law Committee for the Oceans The Road to Nuuk CSIS-WWF April 20, 2011

Primary Arctic Interests Interests Defined by RF Security Council in 2008 Primary Interests: ๏ Resource base for socio-economic development ๏ Zone of Peace and Cooperation ๏ Conservation of unique Arctic ecosystems ๏ Use of Northern Sea Route as integrated transport corridor in theRussian Arctic

Northward Bounds of the Russian Arctic

Southward Boundaries

Russia’s Arctic Policy Makers President and Prime Minister Security Council of the Russian Federation (Secretary: Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev) Maritime Collegium (Chair: Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov; Co-Chairs: Heads of Navy, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Transportation) Council for the Study of Productive Forces (Ministry of Development and the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Elements of Russian Arctic Policy Ocean/Maritime Policy Transportation Policy Shipping Industry Policy Information and Communication Policy Federal and Regional Development Policy Federal District Policies

SWOT Analysis (as seen by Russia’s analysts) Strengths Resource Base Human Capital Industrial Potential Low Cost of labor Geographic Position Opportunities for economic development Weaknesses Single industry structures; Uneven resource distribution Lack of policy attention Raw material focus; limited infrastructure Low productivity Negative demographics Lack of preparedness for climate change at local level Dominance of institutional approach High investor risk

SWOT Analysis (as seen by Russia’s analysts) Opportunities Diversification Inward migration of skilled workers Networking of priority development areas Foreign investment, technology and labor opportunities Strengthening of export specialization Renewable energy development within Arctic Zone Transition to integrated, sustainable socio-economic growth Opportunities for wide range of interagency, interregional and international projects Threats Asymmetry and imbalances between Arctic areas Outflow of skilled personnel Risk of degradation and de- industrialization Vulnerability of strategic economic sectors Formation of power centers in border regions of neighboring states Possible negative impacts of global climate change Potential conflict of development interests Negative impact of global financial and economic crises

Definition and Understanding of the Russian Arctic Transportation and Port Infrastructure Development of Arctic Resources Intellectual Capital: Innovation, Information Infrastructure, Education and Knowledge Management Development of Human Capital in the North Primary Efforts to 2020

Major Projects and Spatial Development Murmansk Multi-modal Port Gas and Oil in Barents and Kara Sea Development of Northern Sea Route (physical and electronic) Non-Conventional Arctic Energy Sources Information Systems and Knowledge Infrastructure

Russian Arctic Strategy, the Short Version: Knowledge, Presence, Growth A new interpretation of Russian sovereignty in the Arctic: an intellectual presence is more important than military Continuous build-up and concentration of new knowledge about natural-resource potential, the dynamics of natural conditions Research presence, strengthening the elements of innovation infrastructure Innovative in the interests of national security, environmental sustainability, conservation of unique ecosystems in the Arctic and the viability of local communities.