The Future for Fisheries By: Daniel Pauly Jackie Alder Elena Bennet Villy Christensen Peter Tyedmers Reg Watson Summary: Hai Nguyen Critique: Chris Heisler

Background Overfishing is causing a decrease in certain species population and a decrease in the amount of fish caught globally Overfishing is causing a decrease in certain species population and a decrease in the amount of fish caught globally Globally the amount of fish caught is declining at a rate of 500,000 metric tons a year Globally the amount of fish caught is declining at a rate of 500,000 metric tons a year

Global Decline in Fish Landings

Graph of declining mean trophic level in the Atlantic

Mean trophic level Declining mean trophic level indicates that larger fish that are higher in the food chain are becoming less abundant in Atlantic Declining mean trophic level indicates that larger fish that are higher in the food chain are becoming less abundant in Atlantic

Reduction of size of Yellowfin Tuna By Ward and Myers of Dalhousie University

Contributions to overfishing Industrial fisheries depend on cheap fossil fuels that seem to be abundant Industrial fisheries depend on cheap fossil fuels that seem to be abundant Incorrect perception of fisheries as local and species-specific Incorrect perception of fisheries as local and species-specific –Overfishing of one species of fish will have a domino effect on their predator

Fuel Factor Fossil fuels are declining causing it to become more expensive Fossil fuels are declining causing it to become more expensive –Energy extensive fisheries will no longer be able to operate (deep sea bottom trawlings) Increased human consumption of fish that can be caught in shallow water Increased human consumption of fish that can be caught in shallow water

Use of scenarios to predict future of fishing Scenarios are sets of coherent, plausible stories designed to address complex questions of the future Scenarios are sets of coherent, plausible stories designed to address complex questions of the future Scenarios by United Nations Environment Programme Scenarios by United Nations Environment Programme

Scenarios Market First Market First Security First Security First Policy First Policy First Sustainability First Sustainability First

Market First Scenario Market considerations shape environmental policy Market considerations shape environmental policy Could lead to ending use of fuel guzzling distant water fleets and lead to a resurgence of small scale fleets deploying energy efficient fixed gears Could lead to ending use of fuel guzzling distant water fleets and lead to a resurgence of small scale fleets deploying energy efficient fixed gears Would allow emergence of quasi marine reserves (offshore) Would allow emergence of quasi marine reserves (offshore)

Security First Scenario Conflicts and inequality lead to strong socioeconomic boundaries between rich and poor Conflicts and inequality lead to strong socioeconomic boundaries between rich and poor Would eliminate fish from the markets of countries still developing in 2050 Would eliminate fish from the markets of countries still developing in 2050 Would increase exports of polluting technologies to poorer countries Would increase exports of polluting technologies to poorer countries –Causes a negative impact on the marine fisheries in the host country Results in increasing fishing effort, decline in catches, and large impact in biodiversity Results in increasing fishing effort, decline in catches, and large impact in biodiversity

Policy First Scenario Range of actions is undertaken by government to balance social equity and environmental concerns Range of actions is undertaken by government to balance social equity and environmental concerns Proposes a new Department of the Ocean and regional Ecosystem Councils and reform to the Fisheries Management Council Proposes a new Department of the Ocean and regional Ecosystem Councils and reform to the Fisheries Management Council –Government could make policy to control fishing instead of self interest parties

Policy First Scenario Cont. Coordinating world wide reform by reducing fishing effort, creating marine reserve networks, and control marine pollution could reduce the risk of extinction of many species Coordinating world wide reform by reducing fishing effort, creating marine reserve networks, and control marine pollution could reduce the risk of extinction of many species

Sustainability First Scenario Requires a value system change, favoring the environment Requires a value system change, favoring the environment Involves creating networks of marine reserves and careful monitoring and rebuilding of stocks Involves creating networks of marine reserves and careful monitoring and rebuilding of stocks Requires 20% to 30% reduction of current fishing and change of target fish from large top predators to small prey species Requires 20% to 30% reduction of current fishing and change of target fish from large top predators to small prey species

Conclusion Current rates of fishing is causing average sizes of fish to decrease and putting some species on the edge of extinction Current rates of fishing is causing average sizes of fish to decrease and putting some species on the edge of extinction Energy to power fishing boats is decreasing causing shift of species being caught Energy to power fishing boats is decreasing causing shift of species being caught There are four scenarios that could predict the future of fisheries There are four scenarios that could predict the future of fisheries

The Future of Fisheries: The Critique Initial Impressions Initial Impressions –It was a well written report with a wealth of information. –Mostly an informative essay written objectively. Never truly takes a stance on what is a better solution. Never truly takes a stance on what is a better solution. –He seems to take on a more holistic approach. He does not only focus on how it will affect humans. He does not only focus on how it will affect humans. –The article was mainly geared towards people who already have some knowledge in fisheries. –Links oil consumption to the future of fisheries, which I had previously never thought of.

Scenarios for the future of marine fisheries. Market First Theory Market First Theory –He gives no history of what has happened, in the past, when the market is given free reign. Enron scandal Enron scandal California power crisis California power crisis Fall of the stock market due to lassez faire trade barriers and relaxed regulations on industry. Fall of the stock market due to lassez faire trade barriers and relaxed regulations on industry. In general industry leaders have a hard time regulating themselves. In general industry leaders have a hard time regulating themselves.

Security First Theory Security First Theory –I like that he shows that this would only serve to accentuate the south to north trading habits This would promote the trading of polluting technologies to poorer countries. This would promote the trading of polluting technologies to poorer countries. This in turn would be harmful to the environment in poorer countries. This in turn would be harmful to the environment in poorer countries.

Policy First Theory Policy First Theory –Range of actions undertaken by governments to balance social equity & environmental concerns. How does he propose that government do this? How does he propose that government do this? –Governments in the past have worked directly against social equity and many times do not have the environment as their main concern. What is going to bring about these changes to the inherent nature of many governments. What is going to bring about these changes to the inherent nature of many governments.

Sustainability First Sustainability First –Requires a value change favoring environmental sustainability. How would we achieve this change? How would we achieve this change? Leads to a reduction in fishing effort to 20% to 30% of its current day levels. Leads to a reduction in fishing effort to 20% to 30% of its current day levels. –This will dramatically affect low level fisherman  Subsidies to low level fisherman –Morro Bay People as of now are not willing to sacrifice much for the sake of the environment. People as of now are not willing to sacrifice much for the sake of the environment. –What will cause this change in mentality?

In Summation The author gives a good presentation of the facts, without allowing his own personal views to obstruct the purpose of the article. The author gives a good presentation of the facts, without allowing his own personal views to obstruct the purpose of the article. He shows without a doubt that something must be done about the state of fisheries or we will over fish them, depleting the fishing supply and destroying biodiversity. He shows without a doubt that something must be done about the state of fisheries or we will over fish them, depleting the fishing supply and destroying biodiversity.