Single Family Housing Market Update Exploring New Single Family Financing ideas NCSHA 2014 Annual Conference Casey Biegelsen Director Barclays Capital.

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Presentation transcript:

Single Family Housing Market Update Exploring New Single Family Financing ideas NCSHA 2014 Annual Conference Casey Biegelsen Director Barclays Capital October 20, 2014 Confidential Presentation

Case-Shiller Regions LTV Analysis 2010 Estimated CURRENT Loan-to-Value for Case-Shiller Regions 1

Case-Shiller Regions LTV Analysis 2011 Estimated CURRENT Loan-to-Value for Case-Shiller Regions 2

Case-Shiller Regions LTV Analysis 2012 Estimated CURRENT Loan-to-Value for Case-Shiller Regions 3

Case-Shiller Regions LTV Analysis 2013 Estimated CURRENT Loan-to-Value for Case-Shiller Regions 4

Case-Shiller Regions LTV Analysis 2014 Estimated CURRENT Loan-to-Value for Case-Shiller Regions 5

Tax-Exempt / Taxable Ratios are Returning to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels Tax-Exempt / Taxable Ratios from 2004 to 2014* *Ratios as of October 15,

Funding and Mortgage Rates Comparison Average Funding and Mortgages Rates from 2004 to 2014* *Interest rates as of October HFAs have TWO Advantages - High LTV first time home buyers - Tax-Exemption 7

Funding and Mortgage Rates Comparison Average Funding and Mortgages Rates from 2004 to 2014* *Interest rates as of October HFAs have ONE Advantage - High LTV first time home buyers 8

Funding and Mortgage Rates Comparison Average Funding and Mortgages Rates from 2004 to 2014* *Interest rates as of October

HFAs have utilized alternative funding tools over the three past years Source: Moody’s : New Financing Tools Pose Few Risks to HFAs June 5, 2014 HFA Financing Activity from 2012 to 2014  Diversification allows HFAs to be competitive 10

Structures Utilized Today  Mortgage Revenue Bonds  Short average-life bonds  Consistent spreads to MMD  Subsidized with Indenture assets & cashflows  Pass-Through Bonds  Matched to the loan average life  Seven competed this year  No subsidy required – Spins off reliable cash flow to HFA  MBS  Upfront profit  No ongoing cash flow  No longer beats tax-exempt pass-through or MRB 11

New Money Bond Issuance Plays a Bigger Role in 2014 *Single Family Bond Issuance as of October 15, 2014  63% of the Bond Proceeds in 2013 were used for Refundings  However, 54% of the Bond Proceeds were used for New Money in versus 2014 Bond Issuance Proceeds New Money 37% Refunding 63% New Money 54% Refunding 46% Rates at their lowest 12 Source: SDC

Challenges We Face in the Future  Locking in Permanent Funding  As interest rates rise, HFAs may need to fund loans with reduced proceeds or provide subsidies  Warehousing Loans  Warehousing facilities allow HFAs to accumulate loan pools for eventual bond funding  Volume Cap  With tax-exemption comes the need for volume cap 13

Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Barclays Capital Inc. (“Barclays”) for information purposes only. This material has not been produced by Barclays’ Research Department and does not constitute investment research or a research recommendation for the purposes of Financial Conduct Authority rules or a research report under U.S. law. This material is for the intended recipient and cannot be redistributed or reproduced without written permission from Barclays. This document shall not constitute an underwriting commitment, an offer of financing, an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments described herein. No transaction, or services related thereto, is contemplated without Barclays' subsequent formal agreement. Barclays is not acting as a fiduciary, accordingly you must independently determine, with your own advisors, the appropriateness for you of the securities, financial instruments or transactions described herein before investing or transacting. Barclays accepts no liability whatsoever for any consequential losses arising from the use of this document or reliance on the information contained herein. Unless otherwise specified, the source for all graphs, charts, and other information is Barclays. Barclays’ databases are derived from various internal and external sources. Barclays does not represent that the information provided herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any data on past performance, modeling or back-testing contained herein is no indication as to future performance. No representation is made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions made herein or the accuracy or completeness of any modeling or back-testing or any other information contained herein. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not represent current market levels, prices or spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the issuance of this document. All opinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change and Barclays assumes no obligation to update this document to reflect any such changes. The value of any investment may fluctuate as a result of market changes. The information herein is not intended to predict actual results and no assurances are given with respect thereto. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute investment, legal, tax, financial, accounting or other advice. 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