1. SA’s
finances

2. Building for flexibility
Source: BCA

3. Transmission channels:
Collateral damage
Transmission channels:
Investment flows
Remittances
Donor flows
Trade (prices/volumes)

4. Resources friction
Source: BCA

5. Sectoral trends: revenue and employment risks6%
22%
Per cent year-on-year (real)
21%
16% 6%
Sources: SARB, Statistics South Africa, Standard Bank Group

6. State finances: credible and consistent
Per cent of GDP
1993/1994
2008/2009
Total net loan debt
41.9
20.8
Budget balance
-10.1
0.1
State debt costs
4.0
2.3
Non-interest expenditure
(percent of total expenditure)
82.0%
91.5%
Sources: National Treasury, Standard Bank Group

7. Favorable judgment (until recently)
Source: South African Reserve Bank

8. Fragile underlying fiscal health
Cyclical component
Actual budget balance
Structural budget balance
Source: South African Reserve Bank

9. End to public sector investment strike…
Sources: SARB, Standard Bank Group

10. Short-term multiplier
Multiplier thrust
Fiscal multipliers
Short-term multiplier
Long-term multiplier
Personal income tax relief
0.6
0.5
Non-wage consumption
0.7
0.3
Investment
0.9
1.8
Source: Standard Bank Group

11. End to public sector investment strike…
Source: National Treasury

12. Global: South Africa: demand crunched; creative destruction
(Sharp) interruption in secular growth trend
Public finances face “under-delivery” risk
Budget balanced for cohesion and growth

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14. End