IEP National Seminar on Water Storage by Large Dams April 30,2005 Conflict Resolution Techniques for Kalabagh Dam Dr.Javed Yunas Uppal Asim Javed Uppal Pakistan Foundation For Advancement of Engineering & Technology

World’s Largest Sweet Water Reservoir

Kalabagh Dam Issue Statement of the Problem Kalabagh Dam, though technically sound and potentially beneficial project, and has attracted financing, yet regionally,politically and publicly, the project has failed to establish a total win- win situation.

People Against People

Objective of Intervention An intervention addressing to the needs of all stake holders; public at large, influentials, experts and international parties, is to be planned implemented and monitored on tasks such as advocacy, opinion and attitude building, and most of all the techniques of conflict resolution. An intervention addressing to the needs of all stake holders; public at large, influentials, experts and international parties, is to be planned implemented and monitored on tasks such as advocacy, opinion and attitude building, and most of all the techniques of conflict resolution. An effective action plan, its execution and monitoring cannot be performed without identifying the correct roles that the major causal parameters play in this matter, and without understanding their dynamics. An effective action plan, its execution and monitoring cannot be performed without identifying the correct roles that the major causal parameters play in this matter, and without understanding their dynamics.

DEFINITION OF CONFLICT “Conflicts are defined as interactions of interdependent people who see their goals as incompatible.” “Conflicts are defined as interactions of interdependent people who see their goals as incompatible.” Conflicts around dams come from a number of sources; especially from the real and perceived distribution of costs and benefits, disparities in social and economic power, the roles of different institutions, and specifics of project location and design. Conflicts around dams come from a number of sources; especially from the real and perceived distribution of costs and benefits, disparities in social and economic power, the roles of different institutions, and specifics of project location and design.

Involvement and Conflict Dynamics Involvement programs are needed to assist all stakeholders in a conflict that has traditionally had little dialogue previously. With limited dialogue, such groups may either refrain from participation, or conversely, escalate rapidly the tactics they use to be heard. Involvement programs are needed to assist all stakeholders in a conflict that has traditionally had little dialogue previously. With limited dialogue, such groups may either refrain from participation, or conversely, escalate rapidly the tactics they use to be heard. Both situations are detrimental to meaningful involvement and to peaceful resolution of conflict. Both situations are detrimental to meaningful involvement and to peaceful resolution of conflict.

A conflict resolution system includes:  psychological and cultural expectations  rules and regulations  processes, for administrative  governance structures.

A conflict resolution system has a series of linked steps to respond to current grievances, needs and conditions as well as learning from participants to create new approaches and values. A conflict resolution system has a series of linked steps to respond to current grievances, needs and conditions as well as learning from participants to create new approaches and values.

From a statistical data, it can be found as to what quantitative and associative relationships exist between the major causal parameters and the resulting resolution of the conflict. From a statistical data, it can be found as to what quantitative and associative relationships exist between the major causal parameters and the resulting resolution of the conflict. Typical Cases Typical Cases The following are some parallel scenarios elsewhere in the world The following are some parallel scenarios elsewhere in the world

 Scenario-1 Ref:  Scenario-1 Ref: Edelman, et al Lesotho Highlands Water Project Partnering A National Dialogue was established for the Treaty Review Process which involve a collaborative team approach to construction and management of large facilities. Instead of the normal adversarial contractual relationship, the cooperative management team works together to design, choose common objectives, and implement a co-operative partnership for evaluating progress and solving problems Lesotho Highlands Development Authority in Conjunction with local authorities set up a Conflict Resolution Mechanism at the community level to handle disputes. The Authority reports that chiefs were empowered to deal with administrative and dispute issues at the village level on a day-to-day basis. At the engineering/dam construction level, Dispute Review Boards have been utilized.

Possibility of Our Farm Lands

Scenario 2 : Yarmuk River Project Ref: Bingham Mediation is the intervention into a negotiation by an acceptable impartial third party that has no authority to make or enforce a decision to assist parties in reaching their own mutually acceptable reconciliation, settlement of issues, or agreement. Mediators have been used for a number of international cross-boundary water disputes (e.g. for the Yarmuk River) and in North America for many types of facility siting, but relatively rarely in other parts of the world

UNDERLYING STATE OF AFFAIRS The stakeholders in the Kalabagh issue are:  The people of the provinces  the politicians  the experts and the authorities  leaving aside the international parties

The levels of the sensitivity to the issue and the mindsets of these groups can be pictured from the following description: People: Jobs, work and rising prices are the main worries Jobs, work and rising prices are the main worries Easily prone to any kind of propaganda Easily prone to any kind of propaganda

Any thing touching ethnicity, caste religion or tribe must be repelled Any thing touching ethnicity, caste religion or tribe must be repelled Least knowledge of facts about Kalabagh Dam and its effects Least knowledge of facts about Kalabagh Dam and its effects Least botheration of technicalities involved in the project Least botheration of technicalities involved in the project

Politicians:  Must gain power and importance and must raise issues touching peoples’ nerves  Must be seen doing and serving good to own people no matter what it may be  Least knowledge of administrative procedures and constraints or government priorities

 Least knowledge of facts about Kalabagh Dam and its effects  Least botheration of technicalities involved in the project

Experts  Living in their own narrow fields having pride in own selves. World outside is non- entity  Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of the boss is paramount

 Lack of team spirit or working with others, or respecting others differing view points  Knowledge of only the Dam and little knowledge of its impact in entirety  Most technical knowledge is restricted to its own compartment

Authorities  Born to rule because of special talent and connections. Must exercise authority without sharing  Promotions, pay scales, and pleasure of the boss is paramount. Extra curricular income is a right too

 Public is a non-entity. Politicians are goofs. Only authorities know what is best for the people  Knowledge of the Dam just for discussion of the elite  Technicalities are matters of lower intellect. Great minds are above them

What are the various ways for conflict resolution What are the various ways for conflict resolution  Negotiation  Agenda Setting

Processes for Handling Conflicts  Collaborative Problem Solving  Fact-finding  Mediation  Partnering  Arbitration  Incentives for Adhering Parties to an Agreement

A system thinking approach can be helpful in this regard. Dynamics of the system can be postulated by a Computer model using Vensim software package. Dynamics of the system can be postulated by a Computer model using Vensim software package.

 Vensim System Dynamics Approach A System Dynamics Approach is best suited to understand the phenomenon, and to bring forward any intervention round to quantitative control. A System Dynamics Approach is best suited to understand the phenomenon, and to bring forward any intervention round to quantitative control. The System Dynamic Approach is a procedure of conceiving the most plausible governing parameters, building up their interactive equations, and processing them simultaneously, to plot the time line effect on the resultants. The System Dynamic Approach is a procedure of conceiving the most plausible governing parameters, building up their interactive equations, and processing them simultaneously, to plot the time line effect on the resultants.

VENSIM MODEL Vensim model can help with  a) detailing out options for solutions  b) monitoring a process once put in place  c) execution and control Vensim model parameters do not necessarily need to be derived from statistical data. Vensim model parameters do not necessarily need to be derived from statistical data.

 The model should be put together such that it makes sense in the first place and be reviewed thoroughly  Then once the model presents a solution,then we can 'set values of the parameters using practical judgment and parametric performance analysis given objectives'

Then we can set the process in place and use statistical data gathering to a) monitor the performance of the process and b) refine the model parameters and improve fidelity if needed. Then we can set the process in place and use statistical data gathering to a) monitor the performance of the process and b) refine the model parameters and improve fidelity if needed.

A lot of analysis of options can be done using parameteric sensitivity analysis. A lot of analysis of options can be done using parameteric sensitivity analysis. The strength of the model really lies in how well it was put together to start with The strength of the model really lies in how well it was put together to start with

Fixing the process would involve: Fixing the process would involve: a) Curb unfounded propaganda b) Care & concern atmosphere c) Authorities conduct d) Campaign for awareness of people

Factors  Factor S: Societal Acceptance Rejection according to a set of Rejection according to a set of values. values.  Factor E: Emotional Control Release Cushion Release Cushion  Factor A: Ability to act and get away with it. with it.  Factor I: Existence of early Indicators Intervening Mechanism Intervening Mechanism

Measurement  Favourable opinions expressed per year  Expressions Per Year Source of Information  News Paper  Clippings  Protestations  Reporting  Questionnaires

Evaluate Relative Influence  Compare Localities where strong acceptance/rejection forces exist with those where they do not.  Compare localities of greater emotional stress with those of lesser emotional stress.

 Compare localities where prejudice exists with those where this does not exist.  Compare localities where there are more communications and interventions with those where they are none.

1.Calculation of Conflict Pressure Factors Place -1 Where Societal Conflict is maximum Place -2 Where Societal Conflict is minimal Number of People attributed to Conflict Pressure Societal Conflict Factor Magnitude of Conflict /2800 =0.14

Method of Relating Results with Actions 1. Calculation of Awareness Campaign Factor Place -1 WhereAwarenessCampaign Has Been Maximum Place -2 WhereAwarenessCampaign Has been Minimum Number of People/Year Attributed to AwarenessCampaign Awareness Campaign Factor Magnit- ude of conflict /3700 =-0.16

Vensim Modeling Outputs

Be One Think One Act One

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