A web-based Biomass Site Assessment Tool Timothy M. Young, PhD – UT Donald G. Hodges, PhD – UT Timothy G. Rials, PhD – UT Robert C. Abt, PhD – NCSU University of Tennessee Southeastern Sun Grant Center Forest Products Center U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station FIA version 1.0 Beta FIA User Group Meeting and Biomass/Bioenergy Workshop February 23 rd -25 th Houston, TX James H. Perdue – USFS Andy Hartsell – USFS

Problem Definition Develop a web-based, economic decision tool for users of cellulose resources with periodic data updates (useful for regional comparisons) Phase I: woody and ag cellulose, geo-referenced MC (supply) curves….also develop a public domain web-site - Phase II:Bayesian logistic regression models for site selection, market constraints, policy constraints, “some sustainability criteria” Phase III:integration with other modeling efforts

Phase I Objectives 1. Develop SQL database of resource data o Mill Residues – FIA Mill Survey Data o Logging Residues – FIA  SRTS o Ag Residues – USDA NASS Survey Data o Merchantable – FIA 2. Develop wood resource costs o Timber Mart South o State Price Reports 3. Develop truck transportation cost models 4. Develop harvesting cost models o FRCS - logging residues (Dennis Dykstra) o Tops and limbs at the landing o In-woods non-merchantable biomass o AHA - merchantable wood (Dale Greene)

Phase I Objectives 5. Develop web-based system in the public domain ( 6. Update data periodically, e.g., o Diesel prices (US DOE EIA) o Resource costs (TMS, State Reports) o Road network (MapPoint 2006) o Resource data (USFS FIA, SRTS) o etc. Scope: 33 Eastern United States (13 Southern states complete) Resolution: 24,975 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) (9,221 ZCTAs in 13 southern states)

Database Development Forest Cover Data Economic Data Polygon Boundaries (ZCTA) Site Locations SQL Database MC Curve

Phase I BioSAT Model USFS FIAUSDA NASS “Woody Residues”“Ag Residues” Mill ResiduesGrowth/Removals Logging Residues SRTS “Econometrics” ZCTA Allocation (GIS) Select Demand Point (or State), Indicate Quantity Demanded Bio-basin Road Networks (MapPoint 2006) Resource Costs (TMS) Harvesting Costs (FRCS) Truck Cost Model Harvesting Costs (Literature) Estimate Total Costs, ATC, MC

o Total Logging Residues o At the landing o In the woods o Total Logging Softwood o At the landing o In the woods o Total Logging Hardwood o At the landing o In the woods o Total Mill Residues o Clean o Unclean o Total Mill Softwood o Clean o Unclean o Total MillHardwood o Clean o Unclean o Barley Straw o Corn Stover o Oat Straw o Sorghum Straw o Wheat Straw (Winter) o Wheat Straw (All) Phase I BioSAT Model (Woody and Ag Cellulose Categories) “Woody Residues”“Ag Residues”

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results (Mill Residues)

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results (Mill Residues – Low Cost)

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results (Mill Residues – High Cost)

(Calhoun Co.) T (Leake Co.) (Perry Co.) T (Lee Co.) T (Pontotoc Co.) (Calhoun Co.) T (Leake Co.) (Perry Co.) T (Lee Co.) T (Pontotoc Co.)

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results D

D D’

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results D D’

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results (Low Cost “All” Logging Residues – “at the Landing”) RankZCTACountyStateCity Annual Quantity Available (dry tons)Total Cost Average Total Cost ($/dry ton) Median MC ($/dry ton) GuilfordNCGreensboro502,198$13,599,152$26.93$ PutnamTNCookeville511,366$13,719,978$26.94$ GuilfordNCGreensboro502,663$13,656,959$26.99$ ClarkeGAAthens501,664$13,734,656$27.27$ ClarkeGAAthens501,809$13,780,111$27.34$ GuilfordNCGreensboro506,446$13,716,390$27.41$ GuilfordNCGreensboro500,535$13,755,368$27.45$ ClarkeGAAthens500,382$13,782,215$27.52$ HumphreysTN New Johnsonville500,063$13,774,854$27.54$ DorchesterSCReevesville507,943$13,800,431$27.59$28.65

Phase I BioSAT Model – Results (Low Cost “All” Logging Residues – “in the woods”) RankZCTACountyStateCity Annual Quantity Available (dry tons)Total Cost Average Total Cost ($/dry ton) Median MC ($/dry ton) LowndesGALake Park1,508,464$257,769,437$169.47$ EcholsGAStatenville1,503,001$256,495,423$170.22$ GlynnGABrunswick1,511,098$260,849,639$173.35$ EcholsGAFargo1,543,578$262,612,006$174.22$ ThomasGAPavo1,504,400$263,082,933$174.96$ CamdenGAWhite Oak1,540,318$270,216,219$175.02$ McIntoshGATownsend1,519,054$264,079,498$176.04$ McIntoshGADarien1,540,998$267,272,628$177.74$ CharltonGAFolkston1,572,056$268,987,024$179.31$ ChathamGASavannah1,527,829$270,658,985$179.79$183.39

Results – Ag Residues (Wheat Straw)

Results – Ag Residues (Wheat Straw – Low Cost Demand ZCTAs)

Summary o version 1.0 provides decision tool for identifying least cost woody and ag residues (useful for regional comparisons) o mill residues, logging residues, and ag residues o resource costs, transportation costs, harvesting costs o Validation is on-going o BioSAT (South) – currently in beta-test

US DOT Southeastern SunGrant Center - Final Report Available

Future Research o Merchantable wood costing o Railroad networks and intra-modal transfer points o Water availability o Competition o Bayesian logistic regression models for site selection o Policy influence o “Some” sustainability criteria o Population data, climatology data, fragmentation, etc.

Acknowledgements o USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station and SRS FIA o USDA Forest Service o Dennis Dykstra and Bob Rummer o US DOT Southeastern Sun Grant Center o University of Tennessee Office of Bioenergy Programs o Sam Jackson, Research Assistant Professor o Bob Longmire, Graphic Design o Sachiko Hurst, Programmer o University of Tennessee Agricultural Experiment Station o Dr. Nicolas Andre, Research Scientist o Kerri Norris, Research Associate o Christy Pritchard, Research Associate o Xu (Nancy) Liu, GRA o Yingjin Wang, former GRA o University of Tennessee College of Business (Frank Guess) o North Carolina State University (Bob Abt) o University of Georgia (Dale Greene)

Questions & Discussion “All models are wrong, some are useful” George E.P. Box – Statistician (U of Wisconsin)