CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REG Improvement of the Dairy and Beef sub-module ElasticityNext steps

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 Livestock supply flows for EU countries and regions (90-99): improvement of the information system for all the animals activities, inclusion of COMEXT database. Livestock net domestic production Split up yields in low and high (MEAT, MILK) Definition of supply elasticities for livestock IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 NEW CRONOSREGIOCOMEXTEXPERT DATA COMEXT.GMS CORRECT NEW CRONOS MATCH COMEXT-NEW CRONOS FLOW_ANIM.GMS IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF COWS t t+1t+2 COWS IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF LEVL = Herd Size t-1 Replacement and Discarded RATES Male and Female Calves Production (REGIO Herd Size) Same coefficients for DCOW and SCOW IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF GROF,CALF t = SLGH t + EXPL t – IMPL t + STCF t (If > 0) GROF t = GROF,CALF t x COWS,FCAL t LEVL t = GROF,CALF t x COWS,FCAL t + STCF t (If > 0) NUSE t = GROF t – LEVL t - STCF t (If < 0) Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) Estimation of NETF IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF GROF,CALF t = SLGH t + EXPL t – IMPL t + STCF t (If > 0) GROF t = GROF,CALF t x COWS,MCAL t LEVL t = GROF,CALF t x COWS,MCAL t + STCF t (If > 0) NUSE t = GROF t – LEVL t - STCF t (If < 0) Use NUSE to redefine LEVL and GROF (for RCAL too) Estimation of NETF IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 MODELISATION IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF GROF,RCAL t = YBUL t + YHEI t + EXPL t – IMPL t + STCF t (If >0) GROF t = GROF,RCAL t x COWS,FCAL t LEVL t = GROF,YHEI t+1 + STCF t (If > 0) NUSE t = GROF t – LEVL t - STCF t (If < 0) Redefine GROF Estimation of NETF

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF GROF,RCAL t = YBUL t + YHEI t + EXPL t – IMPL t + STCF t (If >0) GROF t = GROF,RCAL t x COWS,MCAL t LEVL t = GROF,YBUL t+1 + STCF t (If > 0) NUSE t = GROF t – LEVL t - STCF t (If < 0) Redefine GROF Estimation of NETF MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF LEVL t = YCOW t+1 + STCF t (If > 0) GROF t = LEVL t + EXPL t – IMPL t + STCF t (If <0) IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF LEVL t = SLGH t + EXPL t – IMPL t IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 t t+1t+2 COWS BULF HEIF HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF LEVL t = SLGH t + EXPL t – IMPL t IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 MODELISATION FATTENING PROCESSES: beef, heifers, sheep & pigs HERD DIMENSION SLGH MEAT LEVL = SLGH - IMPL + EXPL LEVW = (SLGH - IMPL) + IMPL * α + EXPL * β GROF = SLGT - IMPT + EXPT Young animals MODEL O coefficient (meat yield), I coefficient (feed, …), nutrients & GHGs output

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 LEVLSLGHIMPLEXPL=-+ LEVW= SLGH - IMPL + IMPL x (FINW - IMWT) / (FINW - INIW) + EXPL x (EXWT - INIW) / (FINW - INIW) IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps MODELISATION

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 Estimation of activity level and yields (light and heavy final weights) for adult cattle Light and heavy final weights depend on genetics and production system Scarce information and similar probabilities Engineering and production system information: final weights (min-max), stock density, daily growth, and herd composition IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 STOCK DENSITY DAILY GROWTH HERD COMPOSITION Max - ∑ i p i ln (p i / q i ) where: i: number of support points p: posterior probabilities q: a priori probabilities sum of p i and sum of q i equal to one A Priori ProbabilitiesSupport Points FINAL WEIGHTS IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 Max H(p) = - ∑ i ∑ n p i,n ln (p i,n / q i,n ) p s.t. ∑ n SLGH n,m E[MEAT n ] = SLGT m E[MEAT n ] = ∑ i SMEAT i,n p i,n ∑ n SLGH n,m = SLGH m ∑ n IMPL n,m = IMPL m ∑ n EXPL n,m = EXPL m SLGH n = GROF.HEAD n + PIML n – PEXL n + ADJ n where: n: number of adult cattle sub-categories (light and heavy final weight) m: number of adult cattle categories (beef and heifers) MEAT: estimated parameter (final carcass weight) SMEAT: possible outcomes (support points) ADJ: shift factor between adult cattle sub-categories sum of p i and sum of q i equal to one IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 COWS BEFL HEIH HEIR CAMR CAFR CAMF CAFF COWS t t+1t+2 COWS BEFH HEIL IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS RESULTS FOR BEFH AND BEFL

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 BEFL HEIH CAMR-L CAFR-L CAMF CAFF COWS t t+1t+2 COWS BEFH HEIL CAFR-H CAMR-H COWSHEIR IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 Split up male and female calves for rearing into light and heavy weight ones: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAFR-H, CAMR-L, CAMR-H, CAFR. A four stages system to assign calves to cows: DCOW-HIGH-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-L, CAMR-L, CAFR DCOW-LOW-YIELD: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR SCOW: CAFF, CAMF, CAFR-H, CAMR-H, CAFR The gross male-female calves production, and the cows replacement rate are respected. IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 BEFL HEIH CAMR-L CAFR-L CAMF CAFF COWS t t+1t+2 DCOW-L DCOW-H SCOW BEFH HEIL CAFR-H CAMR-H COWSHEIR Use the detailed calves production and the number of calves per cow IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 DCOL.MILK = DCOW.MILK x 0.6 DCOH.MILK = (GROF.MILK - DCOL.MILK * DCOL.LEVL) / DCOH.LEVL IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SPLIT UP LOW AND HIGH YIELDS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 Use MS reproductive coefficients IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps FROM MS TO REGIONS Estimate the regional trade: heads and weights Estimate the regional LEVL according to production system: FP MS,i : BRED MS,i = FP RU,i : BRED RU,i where: MS = member state RU = region i = livestock fattening activity FP = length of the fattening period BRED = number of yearly production cycles LEVL = animal activity level HERD = herd size at the end of the year

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps FROM MS TO REGIONS Beef activity level (.000 heads) and yields (carcass weight, kg / head)

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES MEAT and MILK SUPPLY PRICE ELASTICITY: LITERATURE SEARCH DIFFERENT SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FORMS, USUALLY LINEAR (OLS) - Tryfos: slaughtered heads in function of current livestock herd size, expected prices and feed costs; - Nerlove and Fornari: supply meat (beef & heifers) in function of: final stocks, current and future prices valued with quasi-rational expectation; - Moro and Canali: explanatory variables producer prices and feed cost

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES OWN ESTIMATIONS: range of LT & ST elasticity through OLS linear regression TIME SERIES: FAOSTAT yearly data (EUROSTAT - CAPRI: dairy cows and price deflator) 4 LIVESTOCK 5 COUNTRIES: same functional form 2 FORMS tested for cattle and pork

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES model a) LEVL t = a + b 1t HERD t + b 2t PRIC t-1 + b 3t NTRD t + e t model b) ln(LEVL) t = a + b t ln(PRIC) t-1 + e t where : LEVL = slaughtered heads HERD = herd size at the end of the year PRIC = deflated meat production price NTRD = animal net trade flow (import - export) e t ~N(0, 1) SUPPLY ELASTICITY CATTLE, PORK

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES LEVL t = a + b 1t YILD t + b 2t PRIC t-1 + b 3t NTRD t + e t where : LEVL = herd size (Eurostat, CAPRI) YILD = production yield (Eurostat, CAPRI) PRIC = deflated milk production price NTRD = milk net trade (import – export) e t ~N(0, 1) SUPPLY ELASTICITY DAIRY COWS

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES LEVL t = a + b 1t HERD t + b 2t PRIC t-1 + e t where : LEVL = slaughtered heads HERD = herd size at the end of the year PRIC = deflated meat production price e t ~N(0, 1) SUPPLY ELASTICITY SHEEP

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY MODEL (a)

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps SUPPLY ELASTICITIES COMPARISON MODEL (a) – MODEL (b) CATTLE PORK

CAPRI CAPSTRAT Meeting Bologna, 24-25/03/2003 FURTHER STEPS IntroductionModelLH YieldsMS - REGElasticityNext steps Elasticities: comparison with other models results LEVW for male and female rearing calves STCF for all the animals categories CE: import / export weights for light and heavy cattle Availability of official statistics on regional meat Livestock statistics: cover gaps and correct bugs