新興經濟體對國際資金流動的管理 曾頌華 2013 年 10 月

概述  Recent Trends in Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies (EM)  Managing Capital Flows in EM: the Expanded Toolkit  Recent Experience with Managing Capital Inflows in EM  Coping with Capital Outflows as U.S. Fed Exits from Unconventional Monetary Policy  Concluding Remarks 2

Types of Capital Flows 3

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Capital inflows to EM increased sharply in recent years Gross inflows Net inflows Source: IMF, 2013, Multilateral Policy Issues Report, August 1. 5

Composition of capital inflows to EM shifted toward portfolio flows Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14. 6

Push and Pull Factors Affecting Capital Inflows to EM Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February 14. 7

EM/Advanced Countries (AC) interest differentials are wide Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries, J.P. Morgan, May

EM/AC growth differentials are also large Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries, J.P. Morgan, May

EM fiscal and debt indicators compare favorably with AC Source: Chang, Joyce, Managing Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries, J.P. Morgan, May

Volatility of capital flows to EM has increased Source: Balakrishnan, Ravi, et al, 2012, IMF Working Paper WP/12/130, May. 11

Capital Inflows to EM: a Blessing or a Curse? Capital inflows bring economic benefits Capital inflows also bring policy challenges 12

Foreign ownership of EM sovereign bonds increased; market liquidity decreased Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October. 13

Size of capital inflows is large relative to financial depth of some EM Source: IMF, 2012, IMF Working Paper WP/12/ Cumulative Gross Capital Inflows to EM in Selected Asian EM 2010Q1-2011Q2 to Financial Depth 1 1 Financial depth is defined as the sum of equity market capitalization, debt securities outstanding, and bank deposits.

 Macroeconomic policies  Macroprudential measures  Capital Flow Management Measures 15

 Exchange rate: appreciate, if exchange rate not overvalued  International reserves: intervene and accumulate reserves, if reserves too low  Sterilization: sterilize foreign exchange intervention, if inflationary pressures exist  Monetary/fiscal policy: Lower policy rates Tighten fiscal policy 16

Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs) may be appropriate. Source: IMF, 2012, The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows. 17

 Macroprudential Measures (MPMs) aim to ensure financial system stability  Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs) aim to address risks of specific capital flows 18

Use of MPMs has increased in EM Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update, October

Macroprudential Measures (MPMs) Foreig n exchange related measures discriminate according to currency, not residency. Examples:  limits on banks’ open foreign exchange positions  limits on banks’ foreign currency borrowing  limits on banks’ lending in foreign exchange Other prudential measures aim to reduce systemic risk, does not discriminate according to currency.  Credit related measures, e.g. LTV  Liquidity related measures  Capital related measures 20

Capital flow management measures (CFMs) are designed to limit capital flows:  Capital control measures that distinguish between residents (R) and nonresidents (NR)  Other CFMs that do not distinguish between R and NR, subset of MPMs 21

Classification of MPMs and CFMs used recently in EM Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February

Design of CFMS should aim to be: Transparent (priced based) Targeted to the risk at hand Nondiscriminatory between residents and non-residents But most important, they should aim to be as effective as possible. 23

Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows in Selected EM Source: IMF, 2011, Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows, February

Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, April. 25

Coping with Capital Outflows as U.S. Fed Exits from Unconventional Monetary Policy Volatility shock from May 22 “taper talk” Mini stress test in EM, affecting: Interest rates Exchange rates Equity markets 26

Sell off of EM Bonds: May 2013 versus Lehman Brothers 2008 Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October. 27

May 22 Sell Off: Impact of EM Equity Prices and Exchange Rates Source: IMF, 2013, Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update, October

Recent Stress in Emerging Markets: Fundamentals Matter Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October. 29

Recent Stress in Emerging Markets: Fundamentals Matter (continued) Source: IMF, 2013, Global Financial Stability Report, October. 30

What can EM do to cope with further capital outflows and volatility? Tighter financial conditions ahead Possible policy responses: Exchange rate policy: depreciate, intervention to ensure orderly conditions Monetary policy: central bank credibility important at times of increased risk aversion Fiscal policy: let automatic stabilizers work, avoid stimulus, unless major slowdown MPMs and CFMs may be appropriate 31

Concluding Remarks Large, volatile capital flows will continue to be policy challenge for EM Toolkit for managing capital flows expanded: Macroeconomic policy tools Macroprudential and capital flow management measures EM should strengthen fundamentals to cope with potential future capital flow surges/reversals as global financial conditions tighten 32

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