Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa.

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Presentation transcript:

Slide 1 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI (instructor led activity) Southern Africa

Slide 2 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI Extremely Fantastic Intuition Extreme Forecast Index EFI is a measure of the difference between the ENS distribution and a model climate (M-climate) distribution.

Slide 3 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI … … Ordering CDFPDF Probability of not exceeding Threshold Density per threshold Interval (normalised) model climate eps forecast parameter value

Slide 4 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Represented by pink lines below More weight to extremes of M-climate EFI = 78% M-climate EPS EFI takes no direct account of any EPS members beyond the M- climate extremes -1 ≤ EFI ≤ % ≤ EFI ≤ 100% p

Slide 5 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF What can we say about CDFs of successive ENS runs? M-climate Successive ENS runs rank value Lateral variations in CDF position between successive runs are due to the model/flow uncertainty A steeper CDF implies higher confidence.

Slide 6 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+9

Slide 7 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9 D+10

Slide 8 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+9D+10

Slide 9 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10 mm >20 mm

Slide 10 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+8

Slide 11 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

Slide 12 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+8D+9

Slide 13 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 14 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+8

Slide 15 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7D+8

Slide 16 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+7

Slide 17 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 18 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+6

Slide 19 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+7 D+6

Slide 20 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+7

Slide 21 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 22 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+5

Slide 23 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+6 D+5

Slide 24 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+6

Slide 25 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 26 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+4

Slide 27 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+5D+4

Slide 28 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+5

Slide 29 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 30 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

Slide 31 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+3

Slide 32 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+4D+3

Slide 33 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENSD+4D+3

Slide 34 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 35 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

Slide 36 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+2

Slide 37 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+3D+2

Slide 38 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 39 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

Slide 40 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+1

Slide 41 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF HRES & ENS D+2 D+1

Slide 42 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF ENS Probabilities T >10mm>20mm

Slide 43 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

Slide 44 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EPSgrams – D+0

Slide 45 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI T PrecipitationTemperature

Slide 46 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF EFI snow h72-96h 48-72h24-48h

Slide 47 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF M-Climate Precipitation - Q98 Temperature – Q2 Snow – Q98

Slide 48 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Verification

Slide 49 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observed Precipitation 25.07/06UTC-26.07/06UTC Observed Precipitation 26.07/06UTC-27.07/06UTC Durban

Slide 50 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

Slide 51 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

Slide 52 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

Slide 53 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

Slide 54 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Observations

Slide 55 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow

Slide 56 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Snow, Forecast

Slide 57 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

Slide 58 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Bethlehem Airport Observed Forecast

Slide 59 WMO Macao – April 2013 © ECMWF Hogsback, 1543m above sea level 0°C M-climate, snow