The Coming Famine : risks and opportunities for global food security risks and opportunities for global food security Julian Cribb FTSE Food Integrity R&D Forum Brisbane, May 11, 2011

Rising demand Global food demand

A wicked problem.... DEMAND: 242,000 more people every day Population >11.4 billion by mid 2060s 600 petacalories/day Food demand doubles CONSTRAINTS: ‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’ ‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’ R&D drought Climate extinction

Peak Water “Current estimates indicate that we will not have enough water to feed ourselves in 25 years time...” – Colin Chartres, IWMI.

Vanishing lakes, rivers & aquifers Colorado mouth 5 Lake Chad Murray mouth

A thirsty race... Total human water use: 7450 cubic kms We each use 1240t/yr In a lifetime, we use:

Peak Land Farmland per person

Megacities: mega-risks By billion will inhabit cities whose land area = China They will use 2800 cu kms water By

Nutrient crisis Nutrient 5 Nutrientpollution Peak phosphorus 5 5 World P reserves

The Great Waste SIWI tonnes of food wasted by avg. family in a month. (USDA)

Peak Oil Peak oil Algae farms?

Foundering fisheries “The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached.” - FAO

Climate instability 5 4x more drought Global soil moisture forecast 4 Scientific consensus: 25% less food More floods

Climate impact on food ? Source: Dr James Martin, 21 st Century School, Oxford: Commonwealth Lecture 2010

The food challenge Double global food output with: - half the present fresh water - far less land - no fossil fuels (eventually) - scarce and very costly fertilisers - less technology - more drought & climate variability.

Knowledge drought 35 R&D stagnation

Future conflicts UK Ministry of Defence threat assessment 2008

Soaring food prices ▲ Egypt’s regime change began with food price protests Food prices have peaked twice in three years 6

Rising tide Each year: Refugees - 43m Migrants - 205m

Solutions Solutions 1: reinvent food, recycle Double food R&D to $80bn globally a year Invest $80bn to share the food knowledge among farmers, cooks, consumers Reinvent farming systems to use less land, water, energy, nutrients, pesticides End waste: recycle all organic waste and water into new food & resource industries Educate people to respect and value food.

Vegies Vegies in the sky

Biocultures

1000 new healthfoods

Amazing opportunities EDIBLE PLANTS World: 23,400 Aust: 6,132 USA: 3,920 Source: Dr Bruce French

Revegetate, recarbonise, rehydrate

Solutions: A Food Year A Food Year in every junior school on the planet Teach new respect for food: how to eat for health and sustainability OR ? ?

New food rating system? Water rating Soil impact Raw nutrient content Ethical rating Freshness rating Nutritional content Health rating Energy &carbon

Solutions: pay more for food Today’s globalised food prices Signal farmers to grow less Destroy land, water and climate Prompt huge waste of food Promote over-nutrition & kill consumers Increase poverty and hunger Undermine global food security Destroy rural communities and food research Food prices must increase to encourage re- investment in food and farming Barriers to food trade must be abolished

The food industry’s role… Develop new diets, recipes and cuisines based on plant diversity Design for health and sustainability Choose foods that use less water, energy & other inputs Send the right food signals to farmers, fishers and food producers Send the right price signals to protect the agro-ecosystem.

Debate global food security on: -food-crisis Thank you “The Coming Famine” is published by the University of California Press and CSIRO Publishing.It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia. PLEASE FOLLOW: ComingFamine on Twitter