Performance Prediction: Truths and Falsehoods Dr. Jordan B Peterson Professor of Psychology University of Toronto

What do psychologists do? Pursue scientific truth Pursue careers

How to pursue scientific truth MEASUREMENT If the phenomenon cannot be measured It does not exist

How to pursue scientific truth, continued CONSTRUCT VALIDATION Multimethod, multitrait Analogous to sensory analysis Five senses, not one Plus intrasubjective measurement Plus technological extension of sensory analysis

Use statistics destructively Aim at demolishing your effect

How to pursue a career Invent a scale (or a construct) Or rename a scale that already exists Refuse to validate it No convergence No divergence No criterion No multimethod, multitrait analysis Correlate it with some phenomenon

How to pursue a career, continued Publish the paper Establish a small primate dominance hierarchy Based on the scale Climb the hierarchy Use statistics selectively Very selectively Enjoy the fruits of your success! But seriously distort the knowledge base And spend your time chasing red herrings

NATURE | NEWS FEATURE Replication studies: Bad copy Ed Yong In the wake of high-profile controversies, psychologists are facing up to problems with replication. Ed Yong 16 May 2012

Things that might not exist Self-esteem (neuroticism – extraversion) 25000 published papers Whole political and educational agendas Working memory and EF IQ? Emotional intelligence Agreeableness

Things that might not exist Grit MacArthur Genius Grant (Angela Duckworth) Martin Seligman (positive psychology) Conscientiousness Optimism/Pessimism Extraversion/neuroticism Promotion/prevention Extraversion/conscientiousness

Things that might not exist Empathy Measures do not correlate well, but distill to agreeableness Psychopathy Agreeableness, negative, minus conscientiousness Predatory parasite

Things that might not exist Positive illusions Extraversion, by Taylor’s own analysis Practical intelligence Sternberg is a crook Multiple intelligences Gardner is a crook

Things that might not exist Any questionnaire measure independent of the Big Five Any measure of cognitive function independent of IQ Any behavioral measure of a trait, independent of IQ and the Big Five

Things that might exist

Individual Differences Contextual and individual factors Contextual Cultural factors Peer networks Social support Individual Personality Cognitive ability

Personality

Traits Measurement Items Employment Variables Economic Value

Traits

STABILITY Conscientiousness Emotional Stability Agreeableness Industriousness Orderliness Conscientiousness Volatility (r) Withdrawal (r) STABILITY Emotional Stability Politeness Compassion Agreeableness

PLASTICITY Openness Extraversion Creativity Intellect Assertiveness Enthusiasm Extraversion

Personality Extraversion Neuroticism Agreeableness Conscientiousness Happiness, optimism, enthusiasm, gregariousness, assertiveness Neuroticism .2-.3 with major life outcomes Particularly anxiety and depression, since that’s what it measures Agreeableness Compliance, empathy, maternality, kinship criminality Conscientiousness .4 with major life outcomes Openness Creativity, intelligence Disagreeable/neurotic Personality disorders Gender differences 75% classification accuracy

Emotion & Motivation Extraversion Neuroticism Agreeableness Incentive reward (hope, curiosity, play, enthusiasm)/dopamine Harvest attention/approach and exploit social situations Neuroticism Pain, frustration, disappointment, fear, anxiety/GABA, Serotonin Avoid threat, uncertainty and punishment Agreeableness Empathy, sympathy, compliance, CARE (Oxytocin) Form intimate relationships and share Vs Pursue individual agenda/defend territory People vs things Conscientiousness Orderliness: DISGUST Industriousness: GUILT, SHAME Maintain order Stay uncontaminated and sparkly clean Implement goals Openness Manipulate abstractions prior to implementation General Cognitive Ability Awe, curiosity Non-social incentive reward/dopamine

Models are grounded in motivation Capitalize on social groups Maintain order

Measurement

Items

Measurement Trait Measures General cognitive ability Creativity Big Five Aspect Scale Unfakeable Big Five General cognitive ability Fluid Crystallized Dorsolateral prefrontal Creativity Creative Achievement Questionnaire Divergent thinking and fluency

(BFAS) Conscientiousness Industriousness Waste my time (r) Always know what I am doing Orderliness Am not bothered by disorder (r) Follow a schedule

(BFAS) Emotional Stability Volatility Get angry easily Keep my emotions under control Withdrawal Seldom feel blue Am filled with doubts about things

(BFAS) Agreeableness Politeness Compassion Respect authority Believe that I am better than others (r) Compassion Am not interested in other people’s problems (r) Take no time for others (r)

(BFAS) Openness Creativity Believe in the importance of art Love to reflect on things Intellect (but see general cognitive ability) Am quick to understand things Can handle a lot of information

(BFAS) Extraversion Assertiveness Enthusiasm Take charge Lack the talent for influencing people (r) Enthusiasm Make friends easily Am hard to get to know (r)

Unfakeable Big Five (+)

Unfakeable Big Five (-)

Cognitive Ability The complexity of the world Motivated ends must be met Modeling of possibility prior to implementation Models generate solutions to three problems: Where are you? Where are you going? How are you going to get there? Allows testing and failure Popper: “Our hypotheses die in our stead”

Conceptions of cognitive ability INTELLIGENCES Practical vs analytical Social, emotional, moral Multiple: linguistic, musical, logical-mathematical, spatial, body-kinesthetic, intrapersonal, interpersonal INTELLIGENCE Highest strata has the most explanatory power “g” measures “success” across broad domains r ~ .50

Effect Size Relative magnitude Binomial Predictor r = .30 r= .50 90-97%ile r= .35-.50 75-90%ile r= .15-.35 25-57%ile r< .15 0-25%ile Hemphill, J.F. (2003). Interpreting the magnitudes of correlation coefficients. American Psychologist, 58, 78-8. Binomial Predictor r = .30 From 50/50 To 65/30 Predictor r = .50 To 75/25

General Cognitive Ability

Creative Achievement Questionnaire Creativity Creative Achievement Questionnaire Visual Arts (painting, sculpture) 0. I have no training or talent in this area. 1. I have taken lessons in this area. 2. People comment on my talent in this area. 3. I won one or more prizes at juried art shows. 4. I showed my work in a gallery. 5. I sold a piece of my work. 6. My work was critiqued in local publications. 7. My work was critiqued in national publications. Inventions 0. I do not have recognized talent in this area. 1. I find novel uses for household objects. 2. I sketched out an invention and worked on its design flaws. 3. I created original software for a computer. 4. I built a prototype of one of my designed inventions. 5. I sold an inventions to people I know. 6. I received a patent for one of my inventions. 7. I sold an invention to a manufacturing firm.

Employment Variables

Complexity Innovation Hi/Hi Entrepreneurial Lo/Hi Managerial/Administrative Lo/Lo Rote Tasks Hi/Lo

Who suits which position? Cognitive ability High levels of fluid and executive intelligence Decision making and planning Research High levels of retrieval Creativity and ideational production Leadership and public speaking High levels of crystallized intelligence Information dispensing and storage Writing and lecturing

Who suits which position? Specific Performance Openness (r = .30 - .40) Associated with high levels of creativity/entrepreneurial ability Extraversion (r = .20) Managers Sales People Leadership Agreeableness Lower levels associated with creativity/managerial excellence Higher levels for public relations, customer service (?)

Openness Complexity and Intelligence Innovation and Creativity

Conscientiousness Duty and Industriousness Disgust and Orderliness

Employment Variables II Emotional Stability High vs Low Stress Agreeableness People vs Things Extraversion Solitary vs Gregarious

Economic Value

Complexity and cognitive ability 95-86 percentile IQ 130 – 116 85-73 percentile IQ 115-110 Attorney, Research Analyst Editor, Advertising Manager Chemist, Engineer, Executive Manager, Trainee, Systems Analyst, Auditor Copywriter, Accountant Manager/Supervisor Sales Manager Sales, Programmer Analyst, Teacher, Adjuster General Manager Purchasing Agent Registered Nurse Sales Account Executive

Complexity and cognitive ability Administrative Assistant Store Manager, Bookkeeper Credit Clerk. Drafter, Designer Lab Tester/Tech, Assistant Manager General Sales, Telephone Sales Secretary, Accounting Clerk, Medical Debt Collection Computer Operator Customer Service Rep Technician, Automotive Salesman Clerk, Typist Dispatcher, General Office Police Patrol Officer Receptionist, Cashier General Clerical Inside Sales Clerk, Meter Reader Printer, Teller, Data Entry Electrical Helper 70-60 percentile IQ 108-103 55-50 percentile IQ 102-100

Complexity and cognitive ability 45-42 percentile IQ 98-95 37-21 percentile IQ 93-87 Machinist, Food Dept Manager Quality Control Checker Claims Clerk, Driver/Deliveryman Security Guard, Unskilled Labor Maintenance, Machine Operator Arc Welder, Die Setter, Mechanic Medical/Dental Assistant Messenger, Factory Production Assembler, Food Service Worker Nurse’s Aide, Warehouseman Custodian/Janitor Material Handler Packer

Economic Value I Predictive Power Intelligence r = .6 to r = .2 Intelligence Conscientiousness (managerial) Openness Creativity (innovative) Emotional Stability Agreeableness Extraversion

Economic Value II Binomial Effect Size Price’s Law Economic Impact of Prediction

Pareto Distribution

Individual variation and productivity

Economic value and placement Number of years Current - Potential Predictor Job Complexity High complexity = high variability Salary Theoretically proportionate to output Average output must be 2x salary

Process Advertise Test online Screen Interview best candidates

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