Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Serbia Summary report

Origin of the Disaster Very intensive rainfall occurred during the end of May 2014, exceeding 200 mm In some locations, which caused rivers to overflow their banks 6/7/142

Origin of the Disaster.. Due to the heavy rainfall, rivers exceeded their maximum stages, protection dikes and levees were breached, and the adjacent areas were flooded by waters 1-5 meters in height (See hydrographs of Kolubara river below) 6/7/143

Origin of the Disaster … In addition, oversaturation of soils generated landslides that compounded the situation, generating further destruction Furthermore, rising ground-water levels produced additional situations of flooding in some areas that have inadequate drainage 6/7/144

Most-Affected Municipalities included in Detailed Assessment 6/7/145

Thematic Scope of the Assessment Sectors Social Sectors: Housing Education and Culture Health Productive Sectors: AgricultureManufacturing Trade and Tourism Mining and energy Infrastructure Sectors: Transport and Communications Water and Sanitation Cross-Cutting Themes EnvironmentGender Macro-Economic impact Livelihoods, employment and personal income Governance Human Development 6/7/146

EFFECTS OF THE DISASTER Destruction of physical assets (Damage) Changes in production flows (Losses) 6/7/147

Estimated Value of Disaster Effects 6/7/148

Breakdown by Main Sectors A productive and social disaster A productive and social disaster 6/7/149

Breakdown by Sector of Activity Most Affected Sectors: Mining and energy Mining and energy Housing Housing Agriculture Agriculture Trade Trade Most Affected Sectors: Mining and energy Mining and energy Housing Housing Agriculture Agriculture Trade Trade 6/7/1410

Ownership of Disaster Effects.. 6/7/1411

MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE DISASTER 6/7/1412

Disaster Impact on Economic Growth The disaster will cause a recession in the Serbian economy. The impact of the floods on economic growth is estimated at -0.9 percentage points; this is to say that the Serbian economy will contract by 0.4 percent in 2014, rather than growing by 0.5 percent as previously projected. 6/7/1413

Disaster Impact on Economic Growth.. 6/7/1414

Disaster Impact on Fiscal Position Serbia was facing important fiscal challenges before the floods and significant fiscal adjustment was deemed necessary The general government fiscal deficit and debt, as a share of GDP, were among the highest in the region in The Government has prepared additional fiscal consolidation measures to stabilize and eventually reduce public debt. However, the floods introduced delays in implementing the necessary reforms. The Government stays fully committed to adopting the fiscal consolidation package and reforming key systemic laws in the fall this year. 6/7/1415

Disaster Impact on Fiscal Position.. The disaster will increase the general government deficit by an additional 1.0 percent of GDP over the pre-disaster forecasts. It is estimated that the fiscal deficit could be higher by almost 38 billion Dinars, or 1 percent of GDP, relative to the pre-disaster baseline scenario. The increase in the fiscal deficit is the combined result of expected lower revenues and higher expenditures relative to the pre-disaster baseline. 6/7/1416

Disaster Impact on Fiscal Position … The pre-disaster gross financing needs of the Republic of Serbia had been estimated to be 5.6 billion EUR. Additional financing needs of the central government budget due to the floods are estimated at about 330 million EUR. Given the challenging situation of public finance, the government is seeking support from donors to help finance the reconstruction needs. Additional grants will particularly be most helpful in speeding up the rebuilding process and economic recovery without further straining the public debt, which is already very high. 6/7/1417

Disaster Impact on Balance of Payments The disaster will have a negative impact on the current account balance in The current account deficit is projected to deteriorate in 2014 from a pre-disaster projection of 4.0 percent of GDP to 5.1 percent of GDP.The current account deficit is projected to deteriorate in 2014 from a pre-disaster projection of 4.0 percent of GDP to 5.1 percent of GDP. On the import side, there will be additional import needs with respect to electricity, oil and gas and reconstruction material amounting to EUR 275 million, of which electricity imports constitute the largest component.On the import side, there will be additional import needs with respect to electricity, oil and gas and reconstruction material amounting to EUR 275 million, of which electricity imports constitute the largest component. Exports of agriculture products and net exports of manufacturing are projected to decline by EUR 10 millionExports of agriculture products and net exports of manufacturing are projected to decline by EUR 10 million 6/7/1418

Disaster Impact on Balance of Payments.. 6/7/1419

Caution on Short-Term Outlook If reconstruction efforts are not accelerated and completed fully during this construction season, the economy may slow down further. Economic impact may rise if the two most damaged mining fields are not dewatered and fully functional before the next heating season. Possible power outages could lead to a significant drop in industrial output, and the GDP in 2014 thereafter. Finally, inflation might be slightly increase because of the impact on food prices and prices of construction materials and energy. 6/7/1420

DISASTER IMPACT ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Employment, livelihoods and income decline Differential impact on women Human Development Index decline 6/7/1421

Disaster Impact on Livelihoods, Employment and Personal Income Loss of income is affecting persons that are self-employed in formal and informal activities whose assets were destroyed by the floods and landslides Workers that are employed in small- to large-sized enterprises have not been laid off, since those businesses are paying their salaries despite suspension or reduction of production Some workers whose houses were destroyed may need to abandon work to concentrate on rebuilding their homes In total, it is estimated that about 43,000 persons will loss income, for which cash-for-work schemes and cash grants will be required 6/7/1422

Disaster Impact on Women Both men and women have sustained destruction of their assets and losses in income; insufficient sex-disaggregated baseline statistical information precluded conducting a full assessment of damage and losses for women In addition to that, women have seen their unpaid work load increased significantly to cleanup their homes, and take care of children who cannot attend pre-school and day-care centers Compensation of such additional work is required, and has been included under the housing and education sectors 6/7/1423

SOME SECTOR-WIDE DISASTER EFFECTS 6/7/1424

The Housing Sector The floods and landslides caused complete destruction of 485 housing units, and 16,200 apartment and individual housing units more sustained partial damage Household goods and equipment for home-based micro enterprises were also destroyed The value of damage is estimated at 227 million EUR 6/7/1425

The Health Sector A total of 74 health facilities, including health posts and clinics, were affected Their equipment (dialysis and x-ray machinery), furniture and medical supplies were destroyed Health services were suspended for 2-4 days, but no significant increase in morbidity levels has occurred Disease surveillance and prevention campaigns are underway; kidney dialysis patients are being referred to alternative facilities 6/7/1426

Education Sector 35 educational facilities – at pre- school, elementary and secondary levels – sustained partial damage to premises, and destruction of furniture, equipment and education materials Before next school year begins, mud/debris removal and disinfection are required Psycho-social attention to students and temporary transport of students to alternative schools will be required 6/7/1427

The Agriculture Sector 12,000 hectares of land have been rendered unproductive for one season; 4,800 hectares require removal of debris and sediments Farm machinery and farm roads were destroyed Irrigation systems, especially their pumping equipment, have been damaged Domestic animals drowned, and fodder stocks were destroyed. Beehives and fish-farming equipment were destroyed. 6/7/1428

The Agriculture Sector.. Significant production losses resulted in the case of grains, fruits, and vegetables, with an estimated value of 10.5 billion RSD which is equivalent to about 4-5% of the sector´s normal annual production. Animal fodder production was also lost, and future shortages are expected. 6/7/1429

Flood Control Works The floods caused the breaching of the existing flood control works, destroying and partially damaging entire sections of dykes and levees Drainage pumps were submerged for long periods of time and their electrical components would need replacement 6/7/1430

Mining and Energy Two coal mines were flooded, and require rehabilitation before they can become productive again Thermal power plants sustained minor damage; alternative sources of electricity will have to be provided The electricity transmission lines sustained minor damage and may need to be re-aligned to avoid future problems Electricity distribution lines and equipment sustained some destruction and damage, and supply was temporarily suspended 6/7/1431

Manufacturing and Commerce Sectors Nearly 12,700 manufacturing and trade establishments (98% of which are small in size) were affected by the disaster to different degrees An estimated total of 51,157 micro-enterprises (of which 25% are categorized as informal) were also affected 18% of the formal establishments had insurance, but coverage is clearly insufficient to address all post-disaster recovery and reconstruction needs 6/7/1432

Manufacturing sector In the industry sector, damage included the destruction of –Machinery and equipment (52%) –Finished products (39%), and –Premises (9%) Damage was concentrated mostly on small and medium sized establishments (66%) and in large industries (20%) While some establishments suspended operation for less than one month, many others may actually continue inactive for up to 6 months due to the damage and absence of raw materials, water and electricity supply Medium and large enterprises have not laid any workers, but small firms workers and self-employed entrepreneurs are facing income losses 6/7/1433

Trade Sector In the trade sector, damage included the destruction of –Equipment and furniture (58%) –Products to sell (38%), and –Premises (4%) Damage was concentrated mostly on small and medium sized commerce shops (93%) Traders rely on credit to purchase goods to sell, and are presently facing severe difficulties to continue paying their outstanding loans, and have limited working capital to continue operating Tourism operators have been affected in smaller numbers but face similar difficulties 6/7/1434

Water and Sanitation Sector Water supply, waste-water disposal and solid waste disposal systems sustained significant destruction and damage from the floods and landslides As a result, water supply services were interrupted in many locations, and the sector companies are sustaining higher costs to purify and deliver water to the consumers, as well as receiving lower revenues 6/7/1435

Transport and Communications The floods and landslides destroyed sections of primary, secondary and tertiary roads, as well as bridges and other drainage works. The railways system sustained similar destruction. Minor damage was sustained by the postal and telecommunications facilities and services. 6/7/1436

POST-DISASTER NEEDS FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION 6/7/1437

Summary of Post-Disaster Needs (Million EUR) 6/7/1438

Recovery Needs, Million EUR 6/7/1439

Reconstruction needs, million EUR 6/7/1440

6/7/1441