Using Data to Identify Potential Dropouts and Provide Targeted Interventions Office of Special Education Division of Technical Assistance

Dropout Research Characteristics of Students Who Drop Out Prevention, Intervention, and Recovery Efforts Examples of Early Warning Systems and Targeted Intervention Programs Steps and Resources for Implementing Early Warning Systems and Targeted Intervention Programs Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 2 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

Which students are likely to drop out? Most students who drop out leave school because of bad experiences in school. Districts can identify the majority of eventual dropouts earlier—approximately 50% by 6 th grade and up to 85% by 9 th grade. Schools should pay close attention to the transition grades. Jerald, 2007 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 3 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

How can schools minimize risk factors? Better preparation in the lower grades helps students get and stay on-track for graduation. Students’ high school experiences make a difference in their outcomes. Size, relationships, and curriculum affects schools’ “holding power.” Some high school reform models can help students stay in school. Jerald, 2007 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 4 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

What does research say about interventions for students identified as at-risk for dropout? Ongoing, comprehensive and personalized attention from counselors can reduce dropout rates—even for the most at-risk students. Low-intensity programs that provide occasional tutoring, counseling or activities to boost self-esteem do almost nothing to keep students in school. Jerald, 2007 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 5 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

What can schools do when prevention and early intervention don’t work? No set of strategies are 100% effective. Students who "slip through the cracks" fall into two main groups who will need different "recovery" options: Students who earned many of the credits needed to graduate; and Students who were over-age for their grade level and behind in their credits. Jerald, 2007 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 6 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

Massachusetts 1.Determined key indicators of risk. 2.Set the criteria and tracked student performance. 3.Created differentiated interventions based on the level of risk. 4.Tracked student and intervention results. Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 7 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013

1.Determined key indicators of risk: A.Attendance In MA, an absence is defined as a loss of more than 10% of instructional time; however, some schools use different metrics for measuring attendance (e.g., elementary schools measure attendance by day while high schools measure attendance by period). B.Behavior This indicator is useful when considering younger students (e.g., 6 th grade) but can lead to over- identification if used for older students (e.g., 9 th grade). C.Curriculum This indicator is used to determine if students are on- track or off-track. Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 8 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

6 th Grade9 th Grade Attendance Less than 85-90% attendance Behavior Behavior grade of “Unsatisfactory” in one or more classes Did not use a behavior criteria as this led to over- identification of students Curriculum 2 or more “F” grades in English or Math courses; <2.0 GPA 2 or more “F” grades in English or Math courses; <2.0 GPA Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 9 2.Set the criteria for each indicator to “flag” students in 6 th and 9 th grade and track student performance on the indicators: Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

3.Created differentiated interventions based on the level of risk with “flagged” students. 4.Evaluated student improvement and intervention effectiveness. A.Tracked interventions assigned to particular students to evaluate student improvement. B.Systematically tracked associations between interventions and outcomes for students to evaluate intervention effectiveness. Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 10 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 11 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Heppen & Therriault, 2008

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 12 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Heppen & Therriault, 2008

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 13 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Heppen & Therriault, 2008

Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 14 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Heppen & Therriault, 2008

New York City School District 1.Reviewed dropout data to determine important characteristics of dropouts, i.e., defined the target population. 2.Created and implemented interventions to address specific needs identified in the target population(s). 3.Tracked student and intervention results. Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 15 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

1.Defined the target populations: A.Over-Age/Under-Credited (OA/UC) i.A review of dropout data found that 93% of drop-outs were 2 or more years off-track relative to their age and credits earned. ii.Examined all 24,700 students who were OA/UC and found that 7030 ultimately earned a GED or diploma (28%) and dropped out (72%). B.Non Over-Age/Under-Credited (Non-OA/UC) i.The review of dropout data found that an additional 7% of drop-outs were not off-track relative to their age and credits earned but often had life challenges or adult responsibilities interfering with school completion. Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 16 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

2.Created interventions for each population. A.GED Programs Expanded GED programs for the oldest students with the fewest number of credits. Developed options including full-time programs and part-time “blended” Learning to Work (LTW) programs which provide additional academic and student support, college and career exploration, work preparation, skills development and internships to help students develop connections to meaningful post-secondary opportunities as well as prepare for the GED. Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 17 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

2.Created interventions for each population. B.Transfer High Schools Created small, academically rigorous, full-time high schools for the youngest students with the fewest number of credits to reengage students with personalized learning environment, rigorous academic standards with student-centered instruction, support to meet students' academic and developmental goals, and connections to college and career readiness. Recently enabled these students to participate in the Learning to Work (LTW) programs. Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 18 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

2.Created interventions for each population. C.Young Adult Borough Centers (YABCs) Created evening academic programs for the oldest students with the highest number of credits who were considering dropping out due to OA/UC or having adult responsibilities that make attending school in the daytime difficult (e.g., caretaking for young children or disabled family members). Students remain assigned to their sending school and graduate with a regular diploma after earning all credits and passing all exams required. Recently enabled these students to participate in the Learning to Work (LTW) programs. Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 19 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

Targeted intervention results: Four years after implementing these targeted interventions, NY has more than doubled the school completion rate for youth at-risk of dropping out. Pre-targeted intervention rate 22% Post-targeted intervention rate 56% Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 20 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

Additional analyses conducted: Compared results by types of interventions 55.7% of students attending Transfer High Schools completed school compared to 61% of students attending YABCs completed school Determined which students benefitted from targeted interventions Students with significant life challenges were more successful when attending Transfer High Schools than regular schools, but students without significant life challenges were equally successful in Transfer High Schools or regular high schools. Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 21 Young, Belusic-Vollor, & Cole, 2012

Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 22 How do I apply this information to my district or school?

1.Use data to identify students at risk of dropping out focusing on attendance and achievement in core courses. 2.Use adult advocates to engage and mentor students at risk of dropping out (e.g., attendance and behavior monitors, advisors). 3.Support improved academic performance (e.g., use team teaching and tiered support for academic success, develop content recovery courses, and use tutoring as an academic support). Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 23 Dynarski et al., 2008; Kennelly & Monrad, 2007

4.Support improved student behavior (e.g., provide counseling/mentoring and tiered support for behavior). 5.Personalize instruction and the learning environment (e.g., small learning groups, support students inside and outside of school, engage families and communities). 6.Engage students in learning through rigorous and relevant instruction that prepares them to graduate and be productive citizens (e.g., partner high schools and feeder middle schools, develop college/career awareness). Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 24 Dynarski et al., 2008; Kennelly & Monrad, 2007

Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 25 The National High School Center has devised an Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System (EWIMS) implementation process to help identify and monitor students at risk for dropping out of high school.

EWS Resources from the National High School Center and American Institutes for Research High school early warning intervention monitoring system implementation guide. EWSHSImplementationguide.pdf EWSHSImplementationguide.pdf Middle grades early warning intervention monitoring system implementation guide. EWSMGImplementationguide.pdf EWSMGImplementationguide.pdf Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 26

Having data is great, but it’s not the answer—it’s responding to the data that’s the answer! – Marc Johnson, 2011 AASA National Superintendent of the Year Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 27

Dynarski, M, Clarke, L, Cobb, B, Finn, J, Rumberger, R, & Smink, J (2008) Dropout Prevention: A Practice Guide. Washington, DC: NCEE/RA, IES, USDOE Heppen, J & Therriault, S (2008) Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts. Washington, DC: NHSC/AIR temsGuide.pdf temsGuide.pdf Jerald, C. (2007). Keeping kids in school. Washington DC: CPE kids-in-school-At-a-glance/Keeping-kids-in-school-Preventing- dropouts.html kids-in-school-At-a-glance/Keeping-kids-in-school-Preventing- dropouts.html Jerald, C. D. (2008). Identifying potential dropouts: Key lessons for building an early warning data system. Washington DC: Achieve. et?accno=ED et?accno=ED Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 28

Kennelly, L., & Monrad, M. (October, 2007). Approaches to dropout prevention: Heeding early warning signs with appropriate Interventions. Washington, DC: NHSC at AIR hestoDropoutPrevention.pdf hestoDropoutPrevention.pdf Pinkus, L. (August 2008). Using early-warning data to improve graduation rates: Closing cracks in the education system. (Policy Brief.) Washington DC: AEE. Young, K., Belusic-Vollor, V., & Cole, M. (April 2012). Building a comprehensive system to support all students getting to high school graduation and beyond. Presentation of the AYPF to-support-all-students-getting-to-high-school-graduation-and- beyond/ to-support-all-students-getting-to-high-school-graduation-and- beyond/ Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013 Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 29

OSE Technical Assistance Staff: Stacy Callender, Program Tanya Bradley, Bureau MS Dept. of Education Office of Special Education P. O. Box N. West Street Jackson, MS (601) Copyright © 2013 Mississippi Department of Education Office of Instructional Programs/Office of Special Education 30 Dropout Prevention Conference - Fall 2013