Outline of this short course on climate change: 1. Introduction 2. Just three things determine the Earth’s temperature: The sun along with the albedo and greenhouse effects. 3.Last 65 million years (from ocean bottom core sample). 4.Last 800,000 years (from ice core samples). 5.Last 130 years (thermometers and physical observations). 6.Next 100 years (from CO2 Sensitivity and models). 7.Next 10,000 years (models). 8.So what can/should / can we do? 3A

The Earth’s temperature record of last 65 Myears (the Cenozoic Period - from ocean bottom core samples) CO2 = about 450 ppm / ppm today ppm 160 years ago ppm 15,000 years ago CO2 = 1,500 ppm end of dinosaur era glacial/interglacial periods (from shells of foraminifara) Ice on Antarctica also on Greenland, also on the continents water world 3rd major ice age Harold Ureh B

Continental Drift and Plate Tectonics Note the northward movement most continents and especially that of India. 3C

3D

The Earth’s temperature record of last 65 Myears (the Cenozoic Period - from ocean bottom core samples) CO2 = about 450 ppm / ppm today ppm 160 years ago ppm 15,000 years ago CO2 = 1,500 ppm end of dinosaur era glacial/interglacial period (from shells of foraminifara) Ice on Antarctica also on Greenland, also on the continents water world 3rd major ice age Harold Ureh B

The definition of CO2’s temperature Sensitivity is: The temperature change caused by a doubling or halving of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The ocean core data from the “water world” era suggest that the Sensitivity to CO2 is about 3 degrees C during this period. This value would included all of the “fast feedbacks” associate with temperature changes – such as water vapor concentration and cloud formation. Current model calculations of fast-feedback sensitivity agree well with this “measured” value. 3E